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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Sun Jun 18, 2017 11:55 pm 
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Doesn't the new CF need to be a big upgrade on Bruce? Is Yo-Conforto-Bruce better than Yo-replacement-Conforto?

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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 5:59 am 
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Forget ever getting Blackmon, the Rockies wouldn't even move him for a package of say deGrom and Rosario. Warning on Lorenzo Cain: he'll be 32 next OD. That is dangerously close to the expiration date on speedy outfield types in this post-steroid era.

Not being disrespectful, but Asdrubal Cabrera is another player (along with Duda and Ceech) that I just don't get the love from this board for. Everybody wants to move him somewhere else: second, third, etc. I'd like to move him too--off the roster. His range is shot and he is getting more and more injury prone.

I'd be interested in what Pittsburgh wants for Josh Harrison. He's under 30 and has a team-friendly contract for the next three years. He can run, he can pick it and from what I've observed from the pair of series against the Bucs, he has a certain energy that this team currently lacks. He's worth a starting pitcher not named Jake or Thor.

Put him at second, install Wilmer as the permanent third baseman and bring up the two prospects. There's your infield for the next few years.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 8:25 am 
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Disco Ball wrote:
Forget ever getting Blackmon, the Rockies wouldn't even move him for a package of say deGrom and Rosario. Warning on Lorenzo Cain: he'll be 32 next OD. That is dangerously close to the expiration date on speedy outfield types in this post-steroid era.

Not being disrespectful, but Asdrubal Cabrera is another player (along with Duda and Ceech) that I just don't get the love from this board for. Everybody wants to move him somewhere else: second, third, etc. I'd like to move him too--off the roster. His range is shot and he is getting more and more injury prone.

I'd be interested in what Pittsburgh wants for Josh Harrison. He's under 30 and has a team-friendly contract for the next three years. He can run, he can pick it and from what I've observed from the pair of series against the Bucs, he has a certain energy that this team currently lacks. He's worth a starting pitcher not named Jake or Thor.

Put him at second, install Wilmer as the permanent third baseman and bring up the two prospects. There's your infield for the next few years.

Any plan that includes Flo at 3B doesn't work for me.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:26 am 
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tejdog1 wrote:
R Nitelight wrote:
Trade Duda, then....

No.

No.

That's it.


8)


Your hatred for Duda is baffling. .830 OPS in 2014, .830 OPS in 2015, .878 OPS so far in 2017.



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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 9:58 am 
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ilikeike29 wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:
ilikeike29 wrote:
Don't trade Duda.

Re-sign him and trade Dom.


Trade Duda and then resign him this winter.

Put some effing big boy pants on for a effing change.

That basically never happens, Chapman aside.

The Mets should make it happen with Reed. Trade him in July and re-sign him this winter.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:00 am 
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I think Duda accepting the QO would be the best-case scenario here. Duda will almost assuredly be the better option in 2018 and we will still be in win-now mode. Smith can hang out in AAA for another year and maybe his power will further develop. If Duda gets hurt, Dom can come up.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 10:41 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Disco Ball wrote:
Forget ever getting Blackmon, the Rockies wouldn't even move him for a package of say deGrom and Rosario. Warning on Lorenzo Cain: he'll be 32 next OD. That is dangerously close to the expiration date on speedy outfield types in this post-steroid era.

Not being disrespectful, but Asdrubal Cabrera is another player (along with Duda and Ceech) that I just don't get the love from this board for. Everybody wants to move him somewhere else: second, third, etc. I'd like to move him too--off the roster. His range is shot and he is getting more and more injury prone.

I'd be interested in what Pittsburgh wants for Josh Harrison. He's under 30 and has a team-friendly contract for the next three years. He can run, he can pick it and from what I've observed from the pair of series against the Bucs, he has a certain energy that this team currently lacks. He's worth a starting pitcher not named Jake or Thor.

Put him at second, install Wilmer as the permanent third baseman and bring up the two prospects. There's your infield for the next few years.

Any plan that includes Flo at 3B doesn't work for me.


Maybe, but they currently are awful defensively at all four infield spots (and catcher). If they could improve on three of those five, I could live with Wilmer and his ever-improving offensive capabilities.

Thinking about this a bit more while commuting to work--if the Marlins are indeed serious about dismantling, I would take a run at Realmuto. I have no idea of the prospect package it would take to get him (probably large enough to preclude any other trades) but if he is available I'd pursue him.

Another name to consider is Eduardo Nunez. There's your third baseman and leadoff guy. He's played in NYC before as well.

Realmuto, Nunez, Rosario and Smith, along with a returning Bruce would be a good offseason start IMO. They need a bullpen overhaul as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 11:02 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
tejdog1 wrote:

I mean jdawg, it's an .845 OPS vs a .765 OPS. Right? Like...

And Duda isn't a butcher at first. I feel like he gets a terrible rep because of how much he flailed like a beached whale in the outfield.


Not for me. For me, it is simply a simpler numbers game.

1. He's 32, has had back issues the past few years for a guy with a big frame (see David Wright). If all regresses at rates of non-PED big men, we can expect significant regression in probably a three contract.

2. There is a reasonably solid potential first baseman behind him...one who had comparable first three year pro stats at an age 3+ years younger for each level.

3. The Mets have needs in center (I don't believe Conforto is a full time CF as well as he has done), third, bullpen and perhaps catcher. If the NL had a DH, he might be worth an allocation.

4. I think we'd be paying for past production, rather than future production....and if 3/$48 seems reasonable, I see the money as better allocated. And I think this year will force the Wilpons back a bit in payroll.

5. Add to that potential trade return for a team looking for a DH-type LHH...Yankees, Twins, etc...


This is all very fair. And I agree with almost all of it. But - and this is a big but - Dom isn't likely to outproduce a healthy Duda in 2018, or 2019, and may not ever. Hell, Dom's taking a small step backwards this year in AAA.

Dom 2016 AA: 9.2% BB, 13.7% K, 130 wRC+, .155 ISO
Dom 2017 AAA: 7.6% BB, 17.2% K, 116 wRC+, .147 ISO

That's not at all what you want to see moving from the EL to the PCL.

So yeah, maybe Duda has two more productive years left, and year 3 of a hypothetical contract is a pretty big disaster. So? If you want to compete in 2018/2019, he's your better bet to do so. Independent of all else.

But - if Duda can get you a big prospect? You do it. I'm not trading him for some other team's Flexen, though (and I like Flexen)

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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 12:42 pm 
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Quote:
Travis Sawchik
12:38 I think one issue is, and I believe Buster Olney had this in his notes Sunday, is that there isn't much a market among contenders for position players


Will affect Bruce, Duda markets.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:35 pm 
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Comparing Dom as a prospect and Duda fails to account for Duda not being much of a prospect, and clearly outperforming his expectations as a player when he was on the farm.

If you took a whole slew of 1b prospects and gave them Duda's work in the lower minors especially, most of them don't amount to anything.

So that doesn't really tell us much about Dom, unless you're just counting on the exception over the rule on multiple occassions. It would be like comparing a current pitching prospect to Jake DeGrom's minor league work and forecasting a similar trajectory.

I'm sure we have many pitchers who compare favorably to 25 yr old Jacob deGrom's work at AA Binghamton in 2013. I wouldn't go ahead and forecast Casey Delgado for major league ace work just yet, though.


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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:36 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Quote:
Travis Sawchik
12:38 I think one issue is, and I believe Buster Olney had this in his notes Sunday, is that there isn't much a market among contenders for position players


Will affect Bruce, Duda markets.


Wait until mid-July and it gets closer. I think teams are just waiting out their player's season long slumps right now...

INdians (Santana, Kipnis), Angels (Cron, Kalhoun, Revere), Tigers, Twins, Seattle, Rockies (and Gonzalez), Yankees (Carter, Headley), maybe Texas...(Duda or Bruce would be useful - Yohander Mendez...?)

By the way, don't look now, but KC is 3.5 out of first in the weak central.

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 Post subject: Re: Out with the Old
PostPosted: Mon Jun 19, 2017 1:49 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Quote:
Travis Sawchik
12:38 I think one issue is, and I believe Buster Olney had this in his notes Sunday, is that there isn't much a market among contenders for position players


Will affect Bruce, Duda markets.


Yeah this doesn't make sense - a lot of injuries can happen between now and late Jul. Someone will need a corner type at some point.


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