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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Sun Dec 17, 2017 6:38 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:

I wonder how many games the Braves expect out of him, cause, I don't think he's a good risk. Braves took on a fair bit of money in that swap. All expiring, but still a fair bit.


Total money owed was neutral. Just different allotments by year. They got Kazmir and McCarthy- who may not be total zeros - in exchange for helping Dodgers with 2018 luxury tax threshold.


It wasn't Neutral.

Kemp has part of his contract covered by both Sandiego & LA - 6 million per year. He's owd 43.5 million but Atlanta was on the hook for 31.5

The 3 guys the Braves took, all 1 year deals but it comes to 51.5 million for the 3 of them (Culberson is vet minimum, might be low salary arb 1, so he's irrelevant).

But by basic addition the braves took on 2 starting pitchers in expiring deals but paid 20 million for them. If Kaz is healthy it's a good deal but what are the odds of that? So, unless Kaz comes with David Wright like insurance, I think the Braves overpaid for 1 year of Brandon McCarthy, unless they really like Culberson - who doesn't look like much on his stat page.

The flexibility the Dodgers bought for this year (they want to stay under the cap), however, was pretty huge. They can be active this free-agency period now and stay under the cap.

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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:58 am 
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Carig:

Quote:
Lots of talk leading into winter meetings about the Mets trading for the Indians’ Jason Kipnis. But a source expressed skepticism about a deal getting done. So, perhaps the Mets will be forced to pivot to another option.

Heard from rival exec that said Kipnis was among the most attainable second baseman available after Kinsler was traded. If Mets can’t pull together a deal when Indians seem motivated to move his salary, IMO it’s hard to see them making any trade at all.

My morning line favorite for second base is Jose Reyes.






Such a shock that a winter plan centered around definitely completing a trade will end with them not completing a trade. Never see that happen here.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 1:02 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:

It wasn't Neutral.



Rosenthal: Regarding any #Dodgers effort to trade Kemp: It won’t be easy, unless they attach at least one significant prospect. Kemp owed $43M over next two years. #Braves could not move him except in this type of mammoth, cash-neutral deal

More Rosenthal: Sources: Trade is effectively cash-neutral overall, but will get #Dodgers under $197M luxury-tax threshold for 2018. Kemp’s money spread out over two years. Three players #Braves getting all one-year guys. ATL will designate Gonzalez for assignment, enabling him to be free agent.


I haven’t studied the contracts but if they’re not exactly equal guessing there’s unreported cash exchanging hands too.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:53 am 
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I don't really know much about the newspaper business but I had no idea beat guys had to have permission to write a column vs. reporting. We often complain about the writers but maybe it's the organizations they write for who are reluctant to upset the Mets.

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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 10:59 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Carig:

Quote:
Lots of talk leading into winter meetings about the Mets trading for the Indians’ Jason Kipnis. But a source expressed skepticism about a deal getting done. So, perhaps the Mets will be forced to pivot to another option.

Heard from rival exec that said Kipnis was among the most attainable second baseman available after Kinsler was traded. If Mets can’t pull together a deal when Indians seem motivated to move his salary, IMO it’s hard to see them making any trade at all.

My morning line favorite for second base is Jose Reyes.






Such a shock that a winter plan centered around definitely completing a trade will end with them not completing a trade. Never see that happen here.


For me, the first shoe was failing to capitalize on Cozart. The next and last shoe for me will be when/if this backwater of an organization brings Jose Reyes back to be the regular 2Bman. That might be a bridge too far for me. There is only so much incompetence a person can take. I could take passing on Cozart if they were bringing in other young talent to supplement this core. But the writing is on the wall that they will disappoint again.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:01 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
These Longoria rumors are insane. That would be a horrendous idea. Guy is past his prime.

That one really doesn't pass the smell test. Not only do you have to trade for him but he's owed at least 5/81 on his deal; the median contract crowdsource at Fangraphs has Mike Moustakas, who is 3 years younger, getting 5/85. It also has Todd Frazier, who is a few months younger, getting 3/42. All three of these players are projected for something between 2 and 3 wins in 2018 by Steamer. Unless you believe Longoria is going to return to being a 4 to 5 win player again at 32 coming off the worst offensive season of his career, there are simply better routes to solving 3B than trading for him.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:06 pm 
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nmigliore wrote:
Ralf wrote:
These Longoria rumors are insane. That would be a horrendous idea. Guy is past his prime.

That one really doesn't pass the smell test. Not only do you have to trade for him but he's owed at least 5/81 on his deal; the median contract crowdsource at Fangraphs has Mike Moustakas, who is 3 years younger, getting 5/85. It also has Todd Frazier, who is a few months younger, getting 3/42. All three of these players are projected for something between 2 and 3 wins in 2018 by Steamer. Unless you believe Longoria is going to return to being a 4 to 5 win player again at 32, there are simply better routes to solving 3B than trading for him.

Well the obvious solution is now gone (to the Angels). At this point I'd wait to see if the Cards do stuff that makes Gyorko or Carpenter (less likely ) expendable. Either would be solid gets IMO. Not much else excites me. Maybe Harrison but I haven't figured out why the Bucs are moving him.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:25 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:

It wasn't Neutral.



Rosenthal: Regarding any #Dodgers effort to trade Kemp: It won’t be easy, unless they attach at least one significant prospect. Kemp owed $43M over next two years. #Braves could not move him except in this type of mammoth, cash-neutral deal

More Rosenthal: Sources: Trade is effectively cash-neutral overall, but will get #Dodgers under $197M luxury-tax threshold for 2018. Kemp’s money spread out over two years. Three players #Braves getting all one-year guys. ATL will designate Gonzalez for assignment, enabling him to be free agent.


I haven’t studied the contracts but if they’re not exactly equal guessing there’s unreported cash exchanging hands too.


The contracts aren't cash neutral. That's basic addition. 12 of Kemp's 43 wasn't owed by the Braves but by previous teams. The Braves traded 31 for 51. The Dodgers may have covered some of that, but they couldn't have covered all of it cause then they don't add any cap space.

I think it's lazy reporting to call the deal cash neutral without any mention of money being transfered. 31 for 51 isn't neutral. The Braves bought 2 pitchers. The Dodgers traded 2 pitchers for cap space and Kemp (who they might flip again).

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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 2:54 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
Ralf wrote:
The Mets as an organization have seemed to always been so precious with their prospects. Its so frustrating.


You should be precious with prospects especially with the salaries veterans are making. But IMHO making trades for bench players and relievers over the last few years has helped thin out the farm. Smart teams take care of signing Kelly Johnson types during the off season. Not the Mets. 3 million is just tooooo much money to waste on a bench guy. So we end up trading prospect during the season for a spot that we shouldn't have to.

Also, letting Murphy and Turner walk and keeping David Wright were 3 huge mistakes. Wrights not going to play or retire until that contract runs out and the Wilpons will count every penny of that money as paid salary. Can any other organizations boast 3 bigger bone headed moves like this over the last few years?

BTW, don't get used to having DeGrom or Thor around. We know the Mets aren't going to pay them and realistically even if they did want to pay them why would they want to stick around?

I don’t think keeping the 7 time all star and getting rid of the guy who OPS+ed 95 over 4 years here are the most “boneheaded” moves in the game

Besides if paying Stars is bad, them not keeping Jake and Noah should be a good thing.

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
"Wright is greedy" is easily the worst take in the recent history of Mets fandom, and there have been some bad takes in Mets fandom.

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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:02 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
The contracts aren't cash neutral. That's basic addition.


Again, unless KR retracts, I'm confident he knows what he's talking about here.

And BA literally just posted this:

Quote:
Baseball America @BaseballAmerica
9s
The #Dodgers traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, infielder Charlie Culberson and cash considerations to the #Braves in exchange for Matt Kemp.


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:30 pm 
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Quote:
Avila didn’t say whether he had better offers elsewhere but did say he was holding out hope Kinsler would change his mind, which indicates he did. The overall structure of those offers were likely similar to Anaheim’s, but those offers could have been prospects the Tigers liked more.

“It was one team,” Avila said. “That’s all I could negotiate with. I had no leverage.”

It was the Angels or bust. Waiting presented more risk than reward, the Tigers felt, and they would have been in the same spot next season, again in a trade market unfavorable to rental players. Injuries could happen. Plus, Kinsler would still have the leverage.

Avila acknowledged the possibility that more suitors could emerge by waiting.

“But now you’re leaving a lot open to chance and then going already through one trading deadline when nothing was there for him, we decided to go ahead and start the process and move forward,” he said.

“We didn’t break the bank on it but at least we got some young guys that have a chance to develop,” he said.

But Avila’s frustration with having his hands tied in making the trade was evident. The Angels weren’t his choice until they became his only choice.

“Everybody in this room was here, we all went through it,” he said. “It’s very frustrating but at the same time, it is what it is.”


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 Post subject: Re: Winter Meetings (Attempt II)
PostPosted: Mon Dec 18, 2017 4:31 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
The contracts aren't cash neutral. That's basic addition.


Again, unless KR retracts, I'm confident he knows what he's talking about here.

And BA literally just posted this:

Quote:
Baseball America @BaseballAmerica
9s
The #Dodgers traded first baseman Adrian Gonzalez, pitchers Brandon McCarthy and Scott Kazmir, infielder Charlie Culberson and cash considerations to the #Braves in exchange for Matt Kemp.

Not sure this is relevant but some fan proposed this trade awhile before it happened. And apparently there is some weird clause when it comes to DFAing players.

https://twitter.com/fonzy541/status/924414306195607559

https://twitter.com/mike_petriello/stat ... 6048020480

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
"Wright is greedy" is easily the worst take in the recent history of Mets fandom, and there have been some bad takes in Mets fandom.

Rich Coutinho wrote:
When I hear Yankee fans whine I always laugh. It is like the people who invented the color blue complaining about life


RIP uapeople


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