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Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:23 am

Metsown wrote:

I think my biggest gripe was with the hyperbole you used to describe how insanely better the Mariners young pitching was than the Mets. This season the Mariners may have the worst rotation in baseball. Sure they have some nice, young arms in the minors...but so do the Mets. Before Mejia got hurt he was considered a top 30-40 prospect, Harvey and Wheeler are both top 25-50 guys this season. Familia may end up a closer, but he still get's talked about as a guy just outside of the top 100. That's a pretty formidable group of pitching prospects, to go along with Niese as well.

The Mariners guys may end up better, they may have more upside, w/e. None of them are can't miss, without a doubt future Aces. It's hard to say with pitching prospects, and most guys from the top 20-50 all are pretty interchangeable when it comes to predicting their future success at the MLB level.

You could say that about any prospect in baseball. 100% of the teams in baseball would take Felix and the 3 young Mariners prospects over Niese, Familia, Harvey and Wheeler and 100% would take Walker, Hultzen and Paxton over Familia, Harvey and Wheeler. There is a reason EVERY source has the Mariners system ranked significantly higher than the Mets despite neither team having much in terms of hitting. The Mariners offer Walker, Hultzen and Paxton for Familia, Harvey and Wheeler you say....?

As for Familia.... BA specifically said

Steve (Kansas): Was Jeurys Familia any close to making the list?

Jim Callis: One of the eight editors voted him in their Top 100, and two others listed him in their 101-150 range. So not particularly close for Familia. …

So "just outside" is hyperbole as well.

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:28 am

Again if it's so close why do the "experts" have it-

Sickels- Mariners 4th, Mets 15th
Law- Mariners 11th, Mets 22nd
ESPN (next 5 years)- Mariners 18th, Mets 26th?
Fangraphs- Mariners #17, Mets #21

If I am being so ridiculous why is this the case? We've already agreed outside of Montero, Ackley and Franklin the Mariners don't have much young offensive talent so where is this disparity coming from...?

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:36 am

But enough about the Mariners. I think their next 3-4 years could easily be as good or better than ours and you disagree. /End

Metsown · **Joined:** Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:01 pm **Posts:** 1878

Metro2007 wrote:

Metsown wrote:

I think my biggest gripe was with the hyperbole you used to describe how insanely better the Mariners young pitching was than the Mets. This season the Mariners may have the worst rotation in baseball. Sure they have some nice, young arms in the minors...but so do the Mets. Before Mejia got hurt he was considered a top 30-40 prospect, Harvey and Wheeler are both top 25-50 guys this season. Familia may end up a closer, but he still get's talked about as a guy just outside of the top 100. That's a pretty formidable group of pitching prospects, to go along with Niese as well.

The Mariners guys may end up better, they may have more upside, w/e. None of them are can't miss, without a doubt future Aces. It's hard to say with pitching prospects, and most guys from the top 20-50 all are pretty interchangeable when it comes to predicting their future success at the MLB level.

You could say that about any prospect in baseball. 100% of the teams in baseball would take Felix and the 3 young Mariners prospects over Niese, Familia, Harvey and Wheeler and 100% would take Walker, Hultzen and Paxton over Familia, Harvey and Wheeler. There is a reason EVERY source has the Mariners system ranked significantly higher than the Mets despite neither team having much in terms of hitting. The Mariners offer Walker, Hultzen and Paxton for Familia, Harvey and Wheeler you say....?

As for Familia.... BA specifically said

Steve (Kansas): Was Jeurys Familia any close to making the list?

Jim Callis: One of the eight editors voted him in their Top 100, and two others listed him in their 101-150 range. So not particularly close for Familia. …

So "just outside" is hyperbole as well.

More hyperbole. Regardless, I'm not going to argue whose set of prospects are better. I haven't seen the Mariners guys pitch, all I know is that they've all spent far less time in the minors than the Mets guys have and it's hard to tell what kind of futures they have in the majors. Mejia was a top 30 prospect on BA's list last year, so add in Wheeler, Harvey, and Familia I think those 4 are pretty comparable to the Mariners top 3.

On Familia...I forgot that Baseball America was the only publication that mattered. I'm pretty sure the MLB.com top 100 list had Familia on their list, and I've seen a few others that have him in there...not to mention talk of him "just missing" or being a proverbial #101 prospect type guy...so it's not all that far fetched, BA isn't the end all-be all to top prospect lists.

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:39 am

Again. Let's agree to disagree. We will see who was "right" over the next few years. I like the Mariners current future a little more than the Mets (unless the Wilpon's either have money again or sell) and you don't. Check back in 2-3 years. As for now who knows?

PS Mejia was 44th by BA and 45 by Goldstein pre-TJ

Metsown · **Joined:** Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:01 pm **Posts:** 1878

Metro2007 wrote:

Again if it's so close why do the "experts" have it-

Sickels- Mariners 4th, Mets 15th
Law- Mariners 11th, Mets 22nd
ESPN (next 5 years)- Mariners 18th, Mets 26th?
Fangraphs- Mariners #17, Mets #21

If I am being so ridiculous why is this the case? We've already agreed outside of Montero, Ackley and Franklin the Mariners don't have much young offensive talent so where is this disparity coming from...?

Because the 2012 Mets, however bad they may be (I see 75-80 wins) are still FAR better than the 2012 Mariners (60ish wins). Their amazing, gaudy prospects better pan out or else their 60 win team won't be going anywhere anytime soon. At least we have some production on the MLB level with Ike, Duda, and Murph to go along with Wright, Tejada, and Thole. Guys like Smoak and Ackley haven't really proven much, despite their upside, Montero should be good but it remains to be seen how he hits out there.

Metsown · **Joined:** Sun Nov 26, 2006 7:01 pm **Posts:** 1878

Metro2007 wrote:

Again. Let's agree to disagree. We will see who was "right" over the next few years. I like the Mariners current future a little more than the Mets (unless the Wilpon's either have money again or sell) and you don't. Check back in 2-3 years. As for now who knows?

PS Mejia was 44th by BA and 45 by Goldstein pre-TJ

Sounds good. I agree that the Wilpons are probably why the Mets outlook may seem worse, but I think the Mets have more talent already at the MLB level + close to ready pitching prospects to be able to compete if they have some competent owners that allow it.

My bad, I thought he was higher. Still pretty good. That's a top 35, 2 top 50's, and a top 125-150 guy vs 2 top 25's and a top 50ish guy. 4 vs 3, at least we have numbers on them.

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:47 am

Metsown wrote:

Metro2007 wrote:

Again if it's so close why do the "experts" have it-

Sickels- Mariners 4th, Mets 15th
Law- Mariners 11th, Mets 22nd
ESPN (next 5 years)- Mariners 18th, Mets 26th?
Fangraphs- Mariners #17, Mets #21

If I am being so ridiculous why is this the case? We've already agreed outside of Montero, Ackley and Franklin the Mariners don't have much young offensive talent so where is this disparity coming from...?

Because the 2012 Mets, however bad they may be (I see 75-80 wins) are still FAR better than the 2012 Mariners (60ish wins). Their amazing, gaudy prospects better pan out or else their 60 win team won't be going anywhere anytime soon. At least we have some production on the MLB level with Ike, Duda, and Murph to go along with Wright, Tejada, and Thole. Guys like Smoak and Ackley haven't really proven much, despite their upside, Montero should be good but it remains to be seen how he hits out there.

How is Ackley less proven than Duda? 90 big league games with a 117 OPS+ and was the #12 prospect in baseball last year after being drafted #2 overall. Which team in baseball bets on Duda's career the next 10 years over Ackley? Duda has played 39 more games in the bigs. Ackley is a plus offensive 2b and likely future all-star at the position. The Mets would trade Duda for Ackley in a millisecond and would trade Murphy+Duda for Montero if they had anywhere to play him/believed like the Mariners he could stay behind the dish.

Duda 100 games in 2011- 0.9 WAR
Ackley 90 games in 2011- 2.7 WAR

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:48 am

Again. I'm done with the Mariners stuff. It's boring to everyone else but you and me. If you want to continue it via PM that's totally fine with me but I don't think anybody else cares about the Mariners vs. the Mets.

Metro2007 · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:51 am

DPLennon Plenty of blue and orange for #mets this year. Black is being phased out and should disappear completely before long. pic.twitter.com/tsb0fg1U 3 minutes ago · reply · retweet · favorite

MarkJohnson>You · **Joined:** Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm **Posts:** 41179

I shouldn't have brought it up LOL.

Lets all agree: Chone Figgins leading off is an awesomely bad thing to happen to some other team, and its not us, and we should be happy for that. People worry about Andres Torres: Jack Z would go on a bender if Chone Figgins could give him what Torres did LAST year.

Somewhere, Bill Madden weeps.

chinabox · **Posted:** Wed Feb 22, 2012 10:56 am

MarkJohnson>You wrote:

I shouldn't have brought it up LOL.

Lets all agree: Chone Figgins leading off is an awesomely bad thing to happen to some other team, and its not us, and we should be happy for that.

Bill Madden weeps somewhere.

Are we sure that Figgins would not be batting leadoff if he was on the Mets instead of Torres? I am only "pretty sure."

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