The career sample of Aceves is basically 20-30 more IP than a single full year from a starting pitcher. That's not much. Even the ERA-scaled metrics that factor in batted balls, like SIERA and tERA, don't think Aceves is as good as his ERA says he is (career SIERA and tERA greater than 4.00).
Really surprised they aren't just giving the role to Mark Melancon.
Post subject: Re: *** Official Random ST notes not worth their own thread*
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:23 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm Posts: 41162
nmigliore wrote:
The career sample of Aceves is basically 20-30 more IP than a single full year from a starting pitcher. That's not much.
But its spread over time and he's 30. Its going to be tough to ever have him amass a sample equivalent to that which you'd look for from a young starter.
I think the problem is by the time you'd accumulate a useful sample from a reliever, the guy is a different pitcher anyway. Kind of like a platoon bench bat.
His fWAR to date is 2.5 and rWAR 5. His season last year would rank as one of the BEST of relievers in the game by rWAR. Just mediocre by fWAR standards. So if you go on not believing his ERA for a while as he accumulates enough innings to make it significant, and by the time he does, look back and say "Hey, that Aceves guy is an anomaly after all", you've missed the window on him. Its a problem of evaluation, no doubt.
Probably a case of, if you don't believe in it, you don't chase him, but if you have him, you gotta believe in it until he gives you a reason not to. Otherwise, you're potentially passing up a valuable asset.
Over the last 2 decades, there are exactly 3 qualified relievers who have sustained a BABIP of .250 or less: Troy Percival, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Adams. That's 3 out of 285. And that doesn't even include the abnormally high LOB% Aceves has. Even if we lighten up the parameters and set the BABIP filter to .260, only 16 (out of 285 show up). Set it to .270 and it jumps to 43 (yet still only 15% of the sample).
It's pretty much unheard of for a reliever to sustain what Aceves is doing.
Post subject: Re: *** Official Random ST notes not worth their own thread*
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 3:47 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Fri Feb 01, 2008 3:56 pm Posts: 41162
nmigliore wrote:
Over the last 2 decades, the are exactly 3 qualified relievers who have sustained a BABIP of .250 or less: Troy Percival, Rafael Soriano, and Mike Adams. That's 3 out of 285. And that doesn't even include the abnormally high LOB% Aceves has. Even if we lighten up the parameters and set the BABIP filter to .260, only 16 (out of 285 show up).
It's pretty much unheard of for a reliever to sustain what Aceves is doing.
Post subject: Re: *** Official Random ST notes not worth their own thread*
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:15 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:57 pm Posts: 57658 Location: New York, NY
IrishHammer28 wrote:
is Kontos a good prospect?
He's not a special prospect but he's got 7th inning MLB potential. Career 3.33 era, 1.22 whip. Really strong year last year.
Quote:
Scouting Report The move to the bullpen allowed Kontos to scrap his weak changeup and attack hitters with his two best pitches: a fastball with some arm-side run in the 91-93 mph range, and a swing-and-miss slider in the mid-80′s. There’s a chance the 26-year-old, 6-foot-3, 215 pounder will add some velocity as he gets further away from surgery and gets more experience in the bullpen. His control has improved since college, but it’s still not stellar. Kontos profiles as a middle reliever in the long-term because of two glaring flaws. For one, he’s always had trouble against left-handed batters because he lacks a changeup. The tagged him for a .281/.345/.484 batting line with six homers in 142 plate appearances in Triple-A this year, and he’s shown a similar split throughout his minor league career. On the bright side, he does crush righties. Secondly, Kontos is homer prone, giving up a dozen dingers in 89.1 IP for Scranton this year (career 1.0 HR/9 in full season minor leagues). First Inning has his minor league ground ball rates consistently below the 45-47% range, which is pretty low. Fifty percent and above is the norm for most pitching prospects.
Post subject: Re: *** Official Random ST notes not worth their own thread*
Posted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 6:21 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 6:12 pm Posts: 32520
R Nitelight wrote:
Rotoworld:
Quote:
Yusmeiro Petit will start Wednesday in Barry Zito's place, and Andrew Baggarly of CSNBayArea.com says the Giants are "interested to see if (he) is a viable rotation candidate."
We assume he means a candidate at some point down the road if a starter is needed. Zito, who will pitch in a minor league game while he works on his mechanics, has really struggled this spring, but it's doubtful the Giants are considering replacing him with Petit, who hasn't appeared in the majors in the last two years. It does sound like he could be the "No. 6 starter," though, while Eric Surkamp is out.
Never mind.
Rotoworld:
Quote:
Yusmeiro Petit was blasted for six runs on seven hits and two walks over just 3 1/3 innings Wednesday against the Athletics.
He served up a trio of longballs. The Giants gave the ball to Petit today in place of Barry Zito because they wanted to see if he could fill in as a starter at some point this season if needed. It's safe to say they didn't get the answer they were hoping for. He'll probably start the year at Triple-A.
_________________ Sandy and Co.: Hold tight and pretend it's a plan.
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