(I don't know how many of you guys read other Mets message boards, so I figured I'd post this on here as well.)

One stat this team really excels at, which isn't in any box score or gets talked about much at all, is Line Drive percentage (LD%). This is one thing that really correlates well with BA, and BABIP to the point where if you have a high LD%, you're likely to hit for a high average (K rate permitting). Look at the top LD% guys every season and you'll find stud hitters who are .300+ guys.

Looking at some of the LD%'s of our guys last year, it was pretty eye opening:
Tejada 25.7% (career 24.5%)
Thole 24.6% (career 25.0%)
Duda 22.5% (career 21.4%)
Murphy 21.9% (career 21.7%)

All of these numbers were good for top 50 in baseball, with Tejada and Thole in the top 10.

Wright 18% (career LD% is 22.6), and I expect that number to go back up closer to his 2005-2009 (~25%) levels after watching him hit so far this season

Guys like Ike (career 17%) and Bay (career 18.2%) aren't really up there quite like these other guys, and I don't expect them to have very high averages. However Ike should make up for that with power, and Bay still is able to get on base at a pretty decent clip.


This offense has 5 guys who could easily hit over .300 this season. How many teams in history have had that? And when you factor in the walking ability of every guy in this order, the OBP should also approach pretty historic levels.

It's hard not to be incredibly optimistic about this team, especially with the way they're starting. Sure our rotation isn't the best, but it should improve from last season. Our bullpen is miles better. The key is if our offense can take a step forward, which seemed tough after losing Reyes (and Beltran, to an extent), but seems a lot more plausible than at first glance.

Defense won't ever be a strong point, but it just needs to be passable. Now about this bench...

25 players in baseball hit over .300 last year. There is absolutely ZERO chance the Mets have 5 who hit .300 this year.

Mets ain't having five .300 hitters, but this is an excellent on-base offense, which is why I don't worry that their power is average and the speed lousy. There's literally no one in the lineup who you'd predict having a below average OBP. Nothing predicts runs scored better than the amount of runners you get on.

Injuries are the caveat of course, since the backups are all pretty terrible.

The speed is actually almost comical. I have a feeling we will see Collins forced to hit and run more than he normally would like to.

I could see the far fetched-ness about it. However I kind of meant it in a vacuum, all 5 of those guys could very well hit over .300. I'd give Wright a 90% chance, Murphy a ~80% chance, Tejada a ~60% chance, Thole a ~60% chance, and Duda a ~50% chance. The chances of ALL 5 hitting over .300 is low, about 15%. But I think each and every one of them has a better than even money chance at doing so.

Good analysis. Thanks, Metsown.

I'm sort of curious if the lack of speed forces Collins to move Torres back to the leadoff spot when he comes back. Not much value having speed in the 7 slot. I guess ideally you would hit Torres 1st, Tejada 2nd and drop Bay down to 7th....

I like the Mets lineup too, but your percentages are overly optimistic. Wright hasn't hit .300 in a couple of years, and you have him at 90%. None of the other guys are career .300 hitters, and you think they're all better than 50-50?

Hey, it's April, and we can hope, but that ain't realism.

Cool stat, Metsown. I do wonder about the reliability of some of that batted ball data sometimes, though.

I.E., Cliff Pennington, Jason Bartlett, Emilio Bonifacio and Jamey Carroll were in the top 13 in LD% last year.

We do not have burner speed, but there is some sneaky speed scattered around...

Wright, Bay, Tejada, Murphy can all steal a base here and there.

The team will be bottom 5 in SB's this year almost certainly. Speed and defense are 2 major flaws. Wright, Bay, Tejada, Murphy combined for 38 total steals last year.

David is a career .301 hitter, and has hit over .300 more times than not. Just from what I've seen from him so far (albeit a small sample) he looks more like the hitter we saw in 2005-2008. I think ballpark, lineup and injury factors were the reason for his low average the last 2 seasons. I'd bet pretty good money he will be above .300 this year.

Murphy hit .320 last season, and I'd say he has a REAL good chance at coming close (not quite) against this year.

Tejada his .284 in a non starting role last year as a 21 year old. I'd say his chances of getting there are above 50-50.

Thole only hit .268, but his BABIP was abnormally low (.300), and he is absolutely eligible to improve in his first full season. I expect his LD% rates to make his BABIP closer to .320-.325, and a couple more HRs on top of that would give him close to a .300 average. I'd say he has a 50-50 shot.

Duda is kind of a tough one to judge. I personally don't think he'll quite hit .300, and probably is the one guy out of the 5 with a less than 50-50 chance of getting there. However, he did hit well over .300 after his initial slump last season, and his LD% permits a high BABIP and BA.