Joined: Wed Mar 26, 2008 9:42 am Posts: 6416 Location: Delaware
Yeah the walks will be harder to develop than the power. Right now, he has a .200Iso in the short season. If he mantains that for a whole season, consider me hopeful.
Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:08 am Posts: 1835 Location: Franklin Park, New Jersey
The Prodigy wrote:
lantinm wrote:
The Prodigy wrote:
Nothing personal but the argument made by the thread starter is just as bad as you can make.
Awesome! Thanks for your input. It (my argument) only sparked three pages of solid debate.
If by "solid debate" you mean people presenting the overwhelming amount of evidence against using RBI to measure a player's performance that has been around for a long time then yeah, good job.
Yeah, because there was just so much evidence in this thread that completely shot down my argument. The title of my thread was "Wilmer=Run Producer" (because of the number of runs he's knocked in every year, which also happens to be based on factual statistics), and in that thread I shared my thoughts on why I think he should have started the year at Binghamton. I NEVER said the RBI stat and the RBI stat alone was enough of a reason for him to be promoted. If you read through my posts, you'd see that I also offered up more statistical reasoning on why he should be promoted. Others felt the need to tell me why he should repeat the same level (for a 3rd year in a row) and I can respect that. I guess I don't understand why you felt the need to be sarcastic initially, without at least offering up some reasoning.
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:57 pm Posts: 57656 Location: New York, NY
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
A "Tools vs. Stats" argument is not the one you want to use with Wilmer.
And again, as shown above and continually ignored, RBIs do not mean he hits well in "clutch" spots. It means he has frequent opportunities; that's all. It's not a "if A, then B" relationship.
And finally, as referenced in the offseason on some of our other prospects, most research shows that young guys who don't walk in the minors don't become older guys who do walk in the majors. It's a nice narrative to believe it can be "learned" but not true. You're thinking of Reyes the young major leaguer improving his walk rates. His minor league wall rates, as a super young guy at each stop (makes Wilmer look old), were fine for what he was - an 8% rate in st Lucie, bingo and Norfolk as a 19/20 yr old (he has a 7% walk rate for his major league career for the record). Wilmer, with exactly none of Reyes' secondary offensive skills, has a 5% walk rate to date.
I'd love to see an additional study that researched the correlation between improved walk rate in the minors to improved power. I have to believe that a good portion of the young minor leaguers who substantially improve their walk rate as they got older also have a boost in power aka pitchers are throwing "worse" pitchers to avoid the power of said player. It's just a theory lol Really doesn't have much to do with Wilmer.
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Joined: Wed Sep 20, 2006 7:08 am Posts: 1835 Location: Franklin Park, New Jersey
northway wrote:
lantinm wrote:
The Prodigy wrote:
Nothing personal but the argument made by the thread starter is just as bad as you can make.
Awesome! Thanks for your input. It (my argument) only sparked three pages of solid debate.
To be fair, I'm pretty sure that debate was mostly folks telling you that you were wrong.
Since when do we tell people that they are right or wrong on here? Wilmer has knocked in 80 + runs the last two years, which in the most basic and fundamental way makes him a "Run-Producer". If you want to give all of the credit to the guys who hit before him, or you want to dissect how he's knocking these runs in, then that is your choice. Either way, 80+ RBI's is 80+RBI's.
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14272 Location: Atlanta
Well, I think the area of disagreement was whether RBIs were justification for advancement, which you were alone in. And again, saying that Wilmer is a run producer is a baseless claim without any stats to back up that he hits well with runners on base. Like I said, if you have to use RBIs to justify a promotion, a guy probably shouldn't get promoted.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
All I'm gonna say here for the modern day Bill James's among us: Adam Dunn.
The guy's got a monster OPS, doesn't get very many base hits, walks a ton, and now has a monster contract that's basically an anchor weighing his team down. Oh, and for a guy who spent a ton of time in the 3, 4, 5, 6 hole in Cincy he hasn't driven in an overwhelming number of runs either...even when hitting 40 taters.
In regards to Wilmer - he has rbi's because he hits with runners on. When you put a ball in play, good things happen. He doesn't strike out a whole lot, so that's going to mean pressure is put on the defense to get him out.
Its a Grady Fuson vs. Billy Beane argument...in this case the kid's toolsy, shows he can hit and knock in runs, and is still young enough to grow into his frame to add a bit extra pop to his arsenal. He's also young enough to learn consistency with the glove. And he can learn patience at the plate - after all, Reyes did (and the same guys wishing he was still here were the ones dogging Jose when his obp was hovering in the .320 range).
I don't believe he'll ever live up to the hype lavished upon him when he first signed...I do think he'll eventually make the show, and potentially be a productive player.
One final note. Stats only tell part of the story - that was always my point regarding Dunn. Some folks defended him shamelessly back in the day despite obvious holes in his game defensively and offensively...but the bottom line guys like that ultimately will hurt a team and cost them games. Its a Drive for Show mentality with some folks - ooh and ahh, but you don't make the cut...
Final point on this, because I'm not sure how Adam Dunn got dragged into this...
...1) What is really the debate being presented above? That RBIs are a better indicator of hitting ability than OPS? Because I don't think that was even presented before in this thread (nor has the idea that OPS is a tell-all stat about offensive production, but I digress), but its a PREPOSTEROUS argument. Its nice and convenient to use Adam Dunn the year after he absolutely tanked as some sort of "proof" that OPS is apparently meaningless next to RBI - despite the fact that he ranked 9th in the majors in RBIs from 2004-2010 and just 21st in OPS in that same time frame, and shouldn't that put him on the "pro-RBI" side of this argument? - but are we you really going to ignore other high OPS guys? Jeff Francoeur OPS'ed .762 while driving in 208 runs in 2006-2007. What was more telling about his hitting abilities? I don't really understand how this is a serious debate. I don't even think the OP presented that as a debate: I THINK his point was the OPS was GOOD ENOUGH, given age, that the RBI factor weighed heavily on him (to which I disagree, but its less preposterous than crafting some argument like this with weak examples and a muddled point).
...2) Lets put a moratorium on ever trying to knock a big league player for things that happen in the big leagues and coinciding-ly pumping up some kid scuffling a bit in A ball. Its not an apples to apples comparison. Like, at all. Again, I'm not even 100% sure what the theory is presented above, but if its that you "foresaw" Adam Dunn's imminent collapse after being a highly-productive hitter for a long time coming because you think his RBI totals didn't match his OPS (huh?) and are somehow extrapolating that to now say that Wilmer will be better because his stats show he is a more "complete" hitter, IN A BALL MIND YOU, let me present to you what Adam Dunn did at Wilmer's age and then the following season in the minor leagues:
Age 20, A ball: .281/.428/.469 with 16 HRs and 79 RBIs and 24 stolen bases (420 ABs) Age 21, AA and AAA ball: .334/.444/.671 with 32 HRs, 84 RBIs and 11 stolen bases(350 ABs)...and then was promoted to the majors and hit ANOTHER 19 HRs, drove in ANOTHER 43 RBIs, hit .262/.378/.578.
Raise your hand if you foresee Wilmer producing like that over the next 1.75 or so years. Thought so. We should be so lucky as to have Wilmer start being more Dunn-like, even if he has to start swinging and missing more to do so.
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:54 pm Posts: 5054 Location: Vero Beach, FL
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
And finally, as referenced in the offseason on some of our other prospects, most research shows that young guys who don't walk in the minors don't become older guys who do walk in the majors. It's a nice narrative to believe it can be "learned" but not true.
I don't think this is true.
When I've looked at the data I've found very little relationship between walk rates for young minor leaguers and their future walk rates.
This seems to be what other researchers have consistently found as well.
Even looking at young major leaguers, Bill James recently did a study and concluded:
Quote:
Essentially, there is no reason to believe that the walk rate plays any predictable role in the future development of a young player.
And finally, as referenced in the offseason on some of our other prospects, most research shows that young guys who don't walk in the minors don't become older guys who do walk in the majors. It's a nice narrative to believe it can be "learned" but not true.
I don't think this is true.
When I've looked at the data I've found very little relationship between walk rates for young minor leaguers and their future walk rates.
This seems to be what other researchers have consistently found as well.
Even looking at young major leaguers, Bill James recently did a study and concluded:
Quote:
Essentially, there is no reason to believe that the walk rate plays any predictable role in the future development of a young player.
Ok, then I stand corrected. I thought we had this discussion this past offseason and it was started by one of the prospect guru's and continued, but I could be mistaken. I have to admit I was going strictly off memory there.
EDIT: Ok, its not exactly the way I remembered it, but I found what I was thinking of. It was a Sickels' initiated projected on plate discipline transferring to major league success, and in the comments he discusses with someone else about a study finding minor league BB% is the best predictor of major league wRC+, rather than minor league wRC+. So its more of a static look (i.e., if a guy isn't walking, he's not going to translate any success he's having to the majors) rather than a commentary on the ability to improve walking. Its actually like the opposite: they NEED to improve the ability to walk, which really just circles back to OSB's comment a few pages back.
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:54 pm Posts: 5054 Location: Vero Beach, FL
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Ok, then I stand corrected. I thought we had this discussion this past offseason and it was started by one of the prospect guru's and continued, but I could be mistaken. I have to admit I was going strictly off memory there.
EDIT: Ok, its not exactly the way I remembered it, but I found what I was thinking of. It was a Sickels' initiated projected on plate discipline transferring to major league success, and in the comments he discusses with someone else about a study finding minor league BB% is the best predictor of major league wRC+, rather than minor league wRC+. So its more of a static look (i.e., if a guy isn't walking, he's not going to translate any success he's having to the majors) rather than a commentary on the ability to improve walking. Its actually like the opposite: they NEED to improve the ability to walk, which really just circles back to OSB's comment a few pages back.
My fault.
I'm going to have to look for that. I'm skeptical of the claim that minor league walk rates would be a strong predictor of MLB wRC+.
I do think walks are important. But I think less so for younger players, and I would expect something like slugging percentage would be a stronger predictor of future WRC+, and strikeouts, or better XBH/SO, would be a stronger predictor of who makes the majors.
A guy names Chris St. John did a study recently on minor league walk and strike out rates here, but his results for A ball seem to be no longer available (nor is his methodology). But a couple of graphs from AA and AAA:
This shows a correlation between minor league and MLB walk rates, obviously, but it's modest, and the data points for nearly all of the players who became productive MLB players (green dots on the chart) are above the regression line. This means that they were the players who did better than usual at maintaining or improving walk rates as they advanced.
This sort of fits my idea that for young players at least, what is important is if the rates are improving, more than the absolute rate.
I think if you look at MLB players, you'll find most had good walk rates, at some point, or they wouldn't have made the majors. But if you look at minor leaguers, there are enough with good walk rates, especially at lower levels, who don't make it, that it's not a useful predictor in itself. So being an MLB player may predict good minor league walk rates, but good minor league walk rates may not predict MLB success.
If you look only at guys ranked as prospects, walks might be more meaningful, but then you have some selection bias, where if you start using walk rates more or less to determine who is ranked as a prospect, you are maybe changing the definition of prospect, and the result may not continue to hold.
Yeah, because there was just so much evidence in this thread that completely shot down my argument. The title of my thread was "Wilmer=Run Producer" (because of the number of runs he's knocked in every year, which also happens to be based on factual statistics), and in that thread I shared my thoughts on why I think he should have started the year at Binghamton. I NEVER said the RBI stat and the RBI stat alone was enough of a reason for him to be promoted. If you read through my posts, you'd see that I also offered up more statistical reasoning on why he should be promoted. Others felt the need to tell me why he should repeat the same level (for a 3rd year in a row) and I can respect that. I guess I don't understand why you felt the need to be sarcastic initially, without at least offering up some reasoning.
The argument that Wilmer is a "run producer" implies that his hitting numbers are better in RBI situations right? Well, that argument has been shot down by the stats presented in this thread, which continually get ignored.
When you say that his RBI numbers warrant a promotion, regardless of his mediocre OPS, you're basically saying that RBI are a better way to judge a player than OPS, which has also been shot down.
I know that the minor leagues are a big part of this forum and it is a big reason why I like it, in addtion to the high quality of the debate that goes on. I love having homwgrown players on our roster as much as the next NYFS poster. However, I really don't understand the irrational crushes some posters seem to develop for certain minor leaguers. If you want to like a guy just because you like him, well that's you right. Trying to argue that said player deserves a promotion or more credit or whatever it may be, when the stats clearly show otherwise is completely irrational.
A "Tools vs. Stats" argument is not the one you want to use with Wilmer.
And again, as shown above and continually ignored, RBIs do not mean he hits well in "clutch" spots. It means he has frequent opportunities; that's all. It's not a "if A, then B" relationship.
And finally, as referenced in the offseason on some of our other prospects, most research shows that young guys who don't walk in the minors don't become older guys who do walk in the majors. It's a nice narrative to believe it can be "learned" but not true. You're thinking of Reyes the young major leaguer improving his walk rates. His minor league wall rates, as a super young guy at each stop (makes Wilmer look old), were fine for what he was - an 8% rate in st Lucie, bingo and Norfolk as a 19/20 yr old (he has a 7% walk rate for his major league career for the record). Wilmer, with exactly none of Reyes' secondary offensive skills, has a 5% walk rate to date.
I'd love to see an additional study that researched the correlation between improved walk rate in the minors to improved power. I have to believe that a good portion of the young minor leaguers who substantially improve their walk rate as they got older also have a boost in power aka pitchers are throwing "worse" pitchers to avoid the power of said player. It's just a theory lol Really doesn't have much to do with Wilmer.
I don't need any additional study with this ... it seems obvious to me that an increase in power will lead to an increase in walk rate
Jose Bautista being prime example #1 of sudden beastly power leading to a greek god like walk-rate
what gives me much hope with Wilmer ...is that the low K-rate will co-inside with an increase in power ... and the increase power will improve his walk rate to the point where it is respectable. I think he has a CHANCE to be a hitter who can come close to a 1-1 type walk-krate which would obviously lead to excellent results as most hitters who have that type rate are good hitters.
In terms of the argument made by Latinm about Wilmer starting in AA ... i think its important that prospects earn their way up the ladder and I think its obvious that he hasn't earned a promotion as he has not yet excelled at the A level. I think the fact that he is repeating HIGH A for a 3rd time and hitting well ...is a great thing for his development.
Lets remember that he is only 20 years old. There is absolutely no need to rush him.
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