Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 3:15 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:57 pm Posts: 57860 Location: New York, NY
I'd shop Byrdak if Edgin comes up and pitches well... teams tend to get "stupid" when it becomes to reliever trades. I wouldn't look to dump him at all but I'd listen.
_________________ Twit-@Wexlerrules http://stlucietoflushing.com/ W.L.W- We Love Wheeler NYFS Top 30 list... starting 10/1 Staunch anti-BADP (Batting average dependent players) Pronounced "Dar-No"
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 5:45 pm
MVP
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am Posts: 2711 Location: Mets fan since 1973
chinabox wrote:
Even in a world where the Mets are 10 games under .500 and Santana is just as good, despite his awesomeness, he is untradeable.
I think I disagree with you there.
If the mets were 10 games under 500 and Santana was this good, they might have to eat some salary, but he'd have trade value.
He is the most expensive pitcher in baseball and the injury history is a concern. Ignoring this year he's due 2 years 55 or 3 years 74.5. That ain't cheap but for a pitcher of his calibur, it's not that far over value. if the mets eat 30%-40% of that, he becomes an attractive trade piece.
That said, I don't want to trade him, not while the team is wining.
and (the getting the fans back to the ball park) - very valid point too. The Wilpons need playoffs more than they need to shed salary.
as I said, mets in last place and long out of the race - then you have this conversation.
Paying 30-40% of roughly $55m ($20m) is still $35m for two years for the acquiring team and only a $17m/year savings for the Mets. How much is an acquiring team going to give up, only to take a risky $35m for 1.6 years of Johan...? I think he is tradeable, but I think paying $20m to save $35m and getting very little in return is bad business.
Remember, Wheeler came for Carlos AND $4m of the $6.5m owed to him. Shorter term for sure, but 65% of the salary for a very reasonable contract left over. Johan's is huge in scope. And the risk was low.
According to Cots... 2012 - $24m (probably $17m left) 2013 - $25.5m 2014 - $5.5m buyout
_________________ "The most potent weapon of the oppressor is the mind of the oppressed." Steven Biko
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 5:58 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14289 Location: Atlanta
LTKfRGM wrote:
chinabox wrote:
Even in a world where the Mets are 10 games under .500 and Santana is just as good, despite his awesomeness, he is untradeable.
I think I disagree with you there.
If the mets were 10 games under 500 and Santana was this good, they might have to eat some salary, but he'd have trade value.
He is the most expensive pitcher in baseball and the injury history is a concern. Ignoring this year he's due 2 years 55 or 3 years 74.5. That ain't cheap but for a pitcher of his calibur, it's not that far over value. if the mets eat 30%-40% of that, he becomes an attractive trade piece.
That said, I don't want to trade him, not while the team is wining.
and (the getting the fans back to the ball park) - very valid point too. The Wilpons need playoffs more than they need to shed salary.
as I said, mets in last place and long out of the race - then you have this conversation.
Agreed on all counts. He's not really overpaid and the fact that you only have three years of obligations makes him potentially appealing. If the Mets were to make him available in the offseason, if your club was choosing six years for Greinke or three years for Santana, the money probably being equal, would you pitch a fit if they opted for Santana (in hypothetical land)?
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
There are really not as many teams who would take on the amount of money as one would think. It's a very short list. Maybe the Dodgers (Ethier is an issue and they are already at $15m for 2013) and Orioles.
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 6:13 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14289 Location: Atlanta
I'm not saying that there would bea huge market for him, but I think if he became available, there would definitely be some teams that would try to make it work, considering how good he's been.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 6:13 pm
Blue Chipper
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 10:19 pm Posts: 391
Johan Santana is an Ace pitcher. The guy throws a no-hitter and 2 complete games in a row and you want to trade him? What is wrong with some people? The Mets are very close to being a legitimate contender. Also, why would the Mets trade him for prospects? Makes little sense. The Mets have Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Meija plus lesser guys such as Edgin, Ramirez, Mchugh, Rosario. How many more prospects due you need?
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 6:19 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14289 Location: Atlanta
pd8779 wrote:
Johan Santana is an Ace pitcher. The guy throws a no-hitter and 2 complete games in a row and you want to trade him? What is wrong with some people? The Mets are very close to being a legitimate contender. Also, why would the Mets trade him for prospects? Makes little sense. The Mets have Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Meija plus lesser guys such as Edgin, Ramirez, Mchugh, Rosario. How many more prospects due you need?
I'm not of the belief that we should be going out of our way to trade Johan, but I also don't think that this team is close to being a legitimate contender. Our starting lineup is consists of Popsicle sticks, glue, and David Wright. Half the guys we have starting might be settling in to Quadruple-A jobs three years from now. As I said earlier in this thread, having both Santana and Dickey is a luxury, but beyond those two and Wright, who is on the team that you are convinced is part of the solution rather than the problem? This isn't to say that we can't make some noise and maybe sneak into the playoffs this year, but it's going to take an awful lot of luck for that to happen.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 6:32 pm
Legend of NYFS
Joined: Tue Sep 19, 2006 2:57 pm Posts: 57860 Location: New York, NY
pd8779 wrote:
Johan Santana is an Ace pitcher. The guy throws a no-hitter and 2 complete games in a row and you want to trade him? What is wrong with some people? The Mets are very close to being a legitimate contender. Also, why would the Mets trade him for prospects? Makes little sense. The Mets have Wheeler, Harvey, Familia, Meija plus lesser guys such as Edgin, Ramirez, Mchugh, Rosario. How many more prospects due you need?
Totally independent of the theme of "trading Santana", the Mets could use a TON more prospects. This is an average farm system. Even optimists would have to agree it's about average, at best a little better than.
_________________ Twit-@Wexlerrules http://stlucietoflushing.com/ W.L.W- We Love Wheeler NYFS Top 30 list... starting 10/1 Staunch anti-BADP (Batting average dependent players) Pronounced "Dar-No"
Post subject: Re: Is it time to sell high on Santana?
Posted: Sun Jun 03, 2012 6:35 pm
Blue Chipper
Joined: Thu Apr 01, 2010 10:19 pm Posts: 391
I'm not of the belief that we should be going out of our way to trade Johan, but I also don't think that this team is close to being a legitimate contender. Our starting lineup is consists of Popsicle sticks, glue, and David Wright. Half the guys we have starting might be settling in to Quadruple-A jobs three years from now. As I said earlier in this thread, having both Santana and Dickey is a luxury, but beyond those two and Wright, who is on the team that you are convinced is part of the solution rather than the problem? This isn't to say that we can't make some noise and maybe sneak into the playoffs this year, but it's going to take an awful lot of luck for that to happen.[/quote]
Ok, I'll bite. How about Nieuwenhuis, Murphy, Duda, Tejada, Niese, Gee, Brydak, Parnell as being part of the solution. Yes, for the Mets to contend this year they will need contributions from Davis, Bay and probably Harvey
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