Murphy has done a solid job of bouncing back from that swoon earlier in the year; his numbers are right in line with what he's done in his career (108 wRC+ in 2012, 109 career). I still don't know if he has enough glove to make everything work though; defensive metrics haven't been too kind.
Niese is running a slightly better K/BB than last season. That's really good. He's still too homer-prone though and that's really holding him back from being a good, above average starter.
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14287 Location: Atlanta
nmigliore wrote:
Murphy has done a solid job of bouncing back from that swoon earlier in the year; his numbers are right in line with what he's done in his career (108 wRC+ in 2012, 109 career). I still don't know if he has enough glove to make everything work though; defensive metrics haven't been too kind.
Niese is running a slightly better K/BB than last season. That's really good. He's still too homer-prone though and that's really holding him back from being a good, above average starter.
Isn't he already above average? I would say the homers are keeping him from vaulting from being a number three to a number two.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
Murphy has done a solid job of bouncing back from that swoon earlier in the year; his numbers are right in line with what he's done in his career (108 wRC+ in 2012, 109 career). I still don't know if he has enough glove to make everything work though; defensive metrics haven't been too kind.
Niese is running a slightly better K/BB than last season. That's really good. He's still too homer-prone though and that's really holding him back from being a good, above average starter.
Isn't he already above average? I would say the homers are keeping him from vaulting from being a number three to a number two.
On results, not exactly:
ERA-, FIP- 2011-2012: 111, 97 Career: 111, 100
The ERA figure is less important, but FIP pretty much paints him as league average because of the homer issues. xFIP, which regresses HR/FB rate to league average, is obviously the biggest Niese fan, which is why I really like him. However, just using xFIP alone isn't totally fair since it assumes Niese isn't prone to having a higher-than-average HR/FB rate, and so far in his career, that hasn't been true. Hopefully the high HR/FB rate proves to be more of a fluke than a flaw in Niese's skills, otherwise he may really be a league average (or just slightly better) starter.
(I hope that makes sense; I've edited it a couple of times to make it clear.)
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14287 Location: Atlanta
Fair enough. I have to say though, while I assume that Niese will have the occasional stinker, I feel pretty confident on days that he pitches. When he's on, he's usually very on.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
Joined: Sun Feb 17, 2008 2:09 am Posts: 2706 Location: Mets fan since 1973
northway wrote:
Fair enough. I have to say though, while I assume that Niese will have the occasional stinker, I feel pretty confident on days that he pitches. When he's on, he's usually very on.
If you could somehow bump Niese to being your 5th best starter, he begins to look pretty awsome. Santana, Dickey, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese (or am I getting ahead of myself).
Bullpen buyed by Familia, Edgin, Mejia, Francisco, Parnell, Gee and sign 1 other.
Sign a solid righty outfielder (Torri Hunter or Victorino - and I know, they won't come cheap) and maybe bring back Torres for his final and not too expensive arb year, and sign a righty catcher.
That could be a pretty nifty team next year with only 1 expensive signing.
Fair enough. I have to say though, while I assume that Niese will have the occasional stinker, I feel pretty confident on days that he pitches. When he's on, he's usually very on.
If you could somehow bump Niese to being your 5th best starter, he begins to look pretty awsome. Santana, Dickey, Harvey, Wheeler, Niese (or am I getting ahead of myself).
Bullpen buyed by Familia, Edgin, Mejia, Francisco, Parnell, Gee and sign 1 other.
Sign a solid righty outfielder (Torri Hunter or Victorino - and I know, they won't come cheap) and maybe bring back Torres for his final and not too expensive arb year, and sign a righty catcher.
That could be a pretty nifty team next year with only 1 expensive signing.
In this scenario, Gee would have much more value to another team as a starter, than to us as a reliever. While "you can never have enough starting pitching" is always true...if you assume a guy like McHugh slots into the "6th starter/AAAA" role...you really have to deal Gee to improve other areas.
(Completely dependent on Wheeler panning out and helping the big league club before the trade deadline next year._
Joined: Mon Sep 18, 2006 5:39 pm Posts: 19079 Location: Jersey City
If it develops that Niese continues to improve (which he's done each year) and he's still the 5th-best starter on this team, the Mets are going to be a very good team.
_________________ "You come to play the game right. I don’t care what the situation is, I don’t care what the standings say, I don’t care about pitch counts. I only care about playing the game correctly."--Terry Collins
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