I think the best you get with guys without good speed in the OF is Jason Bay.
Surehanded, throws to the right base. And covers 0 ground. That still ain't good.
And Jason Bay is twice the runner Duda is, and 10 times the runner Ike is.
I would be shocked if there is an example of a 20-30 runner who is an effective OFer due to reads. I don't disagree that a guy who is slower can be a better OFer than a guy who is faster, but like everything I think there is a cutoff point where the lack of speed becomes too much to overcome, no matter what kind of "reader" you are.
If Lucas can turn into "Pre-Met" Jason Bay, i'll take it!!!
Like I said above, Bay is twice the runner Lucas is. And even more than that re: Ike.
Here's a list of 3 years of UZR data with a min. of 1000 innings. Stop when you find a "slow" runner. I don't know where the cutoff is, but the top grouping certainly doesn't include ANY.
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:54 pm Posts: 5054 Location: Vero Beach, FL
Steve The Original wrote:
Edit: What is considered a decent UZR for an outfielder? Can you have a negative one and still be considered an "adequate" defensive OF?
UZR is measure against average for the position. So it's not too bad to be a -5. You can make up 5 runs on the offensive end with about 20 more points of OPS. But a guy worse than -10 should maybe be at another position.
A guy like Duda, who has been running around -30, might have to give you an .880 OPS just to be as good a player overall as a roughly average guy like Angel Pagan with a .750 OPS.
Joined: Tue Mar 13, 2007 12:54 pm Posts: 5054 Location: Vero Beach, FL
This is why I think Flores will never play outfield. Think of Daniel Murphy at 2B vs. LF. I think Flores's skillset is basically even a little better than Murphy in the infield, and worse in the outfield.
I think if he's -7 runs at 2B or 3B, he'll be -17 in the outfield. Add in another 10 runs for the difference in positional value, and I think you are giving up 2 wins per season if you move him to a corner outfield spot. He could go from a solid +3 win regular to a guy who you wouldn't want starting.
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14274 Location: Atlanta
Azmetaholic wrote:
While Flores is never going to be a speedster that is a given but critics are way too hard on him. All of these scouting reports need to highlight and at times exaggerate the negatives to seem legit. The worst to me are the NFL prospect scouting reports. The worst quote in this thread says he will be slower at his physical peak. ABSURD. Any person can get faster if it is worked on and if anything Wilmer looks more fit and athletic then he did when first was signed and there no signs to indicate that he will slow down. A positive is that he is smart on the base paths. This goes a very long way as one gets older and PAST his prime. As for the OF; Sure speed helps especially if IQ lacks but Flores can be a corner OFer if his base path IQ can translate into the OF. Knowing what to do and doing it consistently is really all one needs. Not saying that is easy and speed helps cover up for lapses but I am so tired to read about how Flores moves like a slug when it clearly is not true.
He grades out as a 30 runner. His nickname is Tortuga. I don't really see how anything is being overblown. Yes, it is possible to get faster if you work on it, but for all we know he's already worked on it a lot and this is the fastest he's going to get (which, by all accounts, is pretty sluggish). Also, I don't really see how being a good baserunner translates to being a good outfielder (case in point: Juan Pierre). Tracking fly balls isn't the same as running the bases. I don't mean to be all doom and gloom here, but it seems really unlikely that Wilmer will ever be an effective outfielder.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
I think the best you get with guys without good speed in the OF is Jason Bay.
Surehanded, throws to the right base. And covers 0 ground. That still ain't good.
And Jason Bay is twice the runner Duda is, and 10 times the runner Ike is.
I would be shocked if there is an example of a 20-30 runner who is an effective OFer due to reads. I don't disagree that a guy who is slower can be a better OFer than a guy who is faster, but like everything I think there is a cutoff point where the lack of speed becomes too much to overcome, no matter what kind of "reader" you are.
If Lucas can turn into "Pre-Met" Jason Bay, i'll take it!!!
Like I said above, Bay is twice the runner Lucas is. And even more than that re: Ike.
Here's a list of 3 years of UZR data with a min. of 1000 innings. Stop when you find a "slow" runner. I don't know where the cutoff is, but the top grouping certainly doesn't include ANY.
Travis Snider? Giancarlo Stanton? They don't seem to be the fleetest of foot.
Yeah I think those guys are the bar for mediocre runners --> good fielders.
I dont think I'd rate either guy bottom-of-the-league slow, though, by a longshot.
I think what you learn on that list is that there just arent many "slow" OFers. The ones who are (you're Jonny Gomes, Jason Kubel, Carlos Quentin, Michael Cuddyers) are all pretty much near the bottom.
Garrett Jones was the one that stood out for me, as a net positive defender over the 3 years.
Joined: Sun Apr 27, 2008 8:01 am Posts: 14274 Location: Atlanta
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
Travis Snider? Giancarlo Stanton? They don't seem to be the fleetest of foot.
Yeah I think those guys are the bar for mediocre runners --> good fielders.
I dont think I'd rate either guy bottom-of-the-league slow, though, by a longshot.
I think what you learn on that list is that there just arent many "slow" OFers. The ones who are (you're Jonny Gomes, Jason Kubel, Carlos Quentin, Michael Cuddyers) are all pretty much near the bottom.
Garrett Jones was the one that stood out for me, as a net positive defender over the 3 years.
Jones did steal 24 bases in '09, for what it's worth. I don't know what he actually grades out as.
_________________ I named one of my students Isaac after the great Ike Davis.
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