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 Post subject: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 11:03 am 
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Quote:
ZiPS loves the Mets!

Kevin Plawecki (ZiPS No. 25 vs. Law No. 45)
Steven Matz (ZiPS No. 32 vs. Law unranked)
Rafael Montero (ZiPS No. 37 vs. Law unranked)
Brandon Nimmo (ZiPS No. 40 vs. Law No. 91)
Dilson Herrera (ZiPS No. 42 vs. Law unranked)

ZiPS and Law are about equally high on Noah Syndergaard, so he was omitted from this list of unabated ZiPS love.

ZiPS is less concerned than Keith is about Montero's uninspiring major league cameo in 2014, thanks to the fact that he survived Las Vegas, a brutal offensive environment (let's just say the Pacific Coast League hasn't had quite the same drop-off in offense the majors have). The computer is also higher on Tommy John surgery returnee Steven Matz, who didn't have any trouble advancing through the minors quickly, with little drop-off in his peripherals. As for Herrera, while his defense in the majors was shaky, 20-year-old middle infielders who can hit .340/.406/.560 in the Eastern League don't come around often.

Well, most of the Mets anyway

Michael Conforto (ZiPS unranked vs. Law No. 41)
Dominic Smith (ZiPS unranked vs. Law No. 65)

Conforto just missed the ZiPS Top 100, and he's one of those players with very limited professional time whom ZiPS could come to regret placing so low in a year's time. Well, if ZiPS had feelings anyway. He certainly didn't embarrass himself for the Brooklyn Cyclones in the New York-Penn League, and it's a small sample size, but ZiPS was hoping to see more power than a .117 ISO from a 21-year-old corner outfielder in short-season A-ball. Dominic Smith is still young, but ZiPS can't get overly excited about a first base prospect with four homers in 724 minor league plate appearances.


Szymborski

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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:16 pm 
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Interesting read.

I'm surprised they'd list Conforto's .117 ISO as a strike against. For a first year player in a park that kills lefties, he certainly did well enough. If they want to exclude him due to lack of playing time - that's fine, and if they want to exclude Dom for his lack of power - also fine, but I don't agree with the "disappointing 117 ISO" argument with Conforto. 3 homers and 10 doubles in 42 games is fine. It's certainly not "disappointing"

Ike Davis as a first year player in Brooklyn had a .070 ISO.

///rant

but other than that - great stuff.

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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:24 pm 
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In fairness to Law

He likes Herrera a lot, just doesn't think the glove is ready. I don't think that can accurately be depicted via numbers. He also thinks Nimmo is a RF, he likes Nimmo but obviously Nimmo in the OF is less valuable than CF, that's not a knock that's just the way it is. Finally, he's not big on Matz thanks to delivery/injury concerns (mostly), how is ZiPS possibly going to display the same concerns?

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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 6:35 pm 
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Makes sense; Law is a scout at heart and ZiPS is a numbers based system. Bound to be big differences.


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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 8:48 pm 
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I like Law's stuff, but his Achilles heel is when he attempt to use perceived mechanical flaws to predict injury or poor performance. It's a paradigm most organizations are moving away from - even if slowly. The days of valuing "what it looks like" over "what it does" are coming to an end.


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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:03 pm 
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Genmet wrote:
I like Law's stuff, but his Achilles heel is when he attempt to use perceived mechanical flaws to predict injury or poor performance. It's a paradigm most organizations are moving away from - even if slowly. The days of valuing "what it looks like" over "what it does" are coming to an end.


So what you're saying is that it's not a good idea to try to change the mechanics of a 20 year old who has been throwing one way his entire life?

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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Thu Feb 05, 2015 9:22 pm 
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chinabox wrote:
Genmet wrote:
I like Law's stuff, but his Achilles heel is when he attempt to use perceived mechanical flaws to predict injury or poor performance. It's a paradigm most organizations are moving away from - even if slowly. The days of valuing "what it looks like" over "what it does" are coming to an end.


So what you're saying is that it's not a good idea to try to change the mechanics of a 20 year old who has been throwing one way his entire life?


I do believe that, but that's not what I meant here. Law will sometimes make comments about a pitcher's delivery or a hitter's swing that reflect a limited understanding of this side of the game. The influx of Latin players has created a paradigm shift, albeit a glacially paced one. While the American paradigm was creating tall, robotic pitchers - think Kris Benson - the more athletic, violent deliveries of truly great pitchers was dominating the game. To reference Pedro and Randy Johnson, since they are both Hall-bound this year, is instructive. If either of them had been over-coached in their formative years in accordance with the failed "balance" obsessed model neither would be in the Hall. Both men have unconventional, dynamic deliveries. This is not to say that more conventional deliveries are inherently ineffective - look at Tom Glavine. What I am saying is that "what it does" should always trump "what it looks like". So don't tell me a prospect will not succeed because he falls off after his delivery - what, like Bob Gibson did? Or because he he tilts excessively - what, like Sandy Koufax? Or he strides short - what, like Justin Verlander? Or strides long - what, like Billy Wagner? Or he's a short-armer - what, like Roger Clemens?
And I can go on and on, but you get the point.


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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:08 am 
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Genmet wrote:
chinabox wrote:
Genmet wrote:
I like Law's stuff, but his Achilles heel is when he attempt to use perceived mechanical flaws to predict injury or poor performance. It's a paradigm most organizations are moving away from - even if slowly. The days of valuing "what it looks like" over "what it does" are coming to an end.


So what you're saying is that it's not a good idea to try to change the mechanics of a 20 year old who has been throwing one way his entire life?


I do believe that, but that's not what I meant here. Law will sometimes make comments about a pitcher's delivery or a hitter's swing that reflect a limited understanding of this side of the game. The influx of Latin players has created a paradigm shift, albeit a glacially paced one. While the American paradigm was creating tall, robotic pitchers - think Kris Benson - the more athletic, violent deliveries of truly great pitchers was dominating the game. To reference Pedro and Randy Johnson, since they are both Hall-bound this year, is instructive. If either of them had been over-coached in their formative years in accordance with the failed "balance" obsessed model neither would be in the Hall. Both men have unconventional, dynamic deliveries. This is not to say that more conventional deliveries are inherently ineffective - look at Tom Glavine. What I am saying is that "what it does" should always trump "what it looks like". So don't tell me a prospect will not succeed because he falls off after his delivery - what, like Bob Gibson did? Or because he he tilts excessively - what, like Sandy Koufax? Or he strides short - what, like Justin Verlander? Or strides long - what, like Billy Wagner? Or he's a short-armer - what, like Roger Clemens?
And I can go on and on, but you get the point.


Agree 100%. Like you said there is a tendancy to bump up or dock guys for having bad or good "form". While in some instances like a long load for a hitter it is justified because it is the only way they can generate pop and it opens up a hole to be exposed. For pitcher deliveries it seems it's more just a guess than anything that it will cause a player to break-down. Everyone raved about Matt Harvey's mechanics and perfect pitchers build that just screamed durability. It didn't work out that way. Obviously just 1 example but we are nowhere close on the medical understanding end to be overly concerned with injuries while projecting prospects. Yes, pitchers are riskier (and guys with 1 major injury are more likely for another major injury) but other than knowing and adjusting for that, leave it there.


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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Fri Feb 06, 2015 10:14 am 
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Something that ZIPS and Steamer or any projection system has to deal with that causes some weird results is catcher defense. Most of these guys, even the MiLB catchers who aren't likely to stick will have a positive defensive value for being projected as a catcher just because the positional value is so large and MiLB catcher defense info is non-existent. Just wanted to point that out because it severely raises the floor for most catching prospects such as Plaw. d'Arnaud probably had a higher ZIPS before he made the MLB as a prospect than he does now because his defense was held flat and now Szymborski has him as a -7 Defender.


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 Post subject: Re: ZIPS and the Mets prospects
PostPosted: Fri Feb 06, 2015 12:56 pm 
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Genmet wrote:
I do believe that, but that's not what I meant here. Law will sometimes make comments about a pitcher's delivery or a hitter's swing that reflect a limited understanding of this side of the game. The influx of Latin players has created a paradigm shift, albeit a glacially paced one. While the American paradigm was creating tall, robotic pitchers - think Kris Benson - the more athletic, violent deliveries of truly great pitchers was dominating the game. To reference Pedro and Randy Johnson, since they are both Hall-bound this year, is instructive. If either of them had been over-coached in their formative years in accordance with the failed "balance" obsessed model neither would be in the Hall. Both men have unconventional, dynamic deliveries. This is not to say that more conventional deliveries are inherently ineffective - look at Tom Glavine. What I am saying is that "what it does" should always trump "what it looks like". So don't tell me a prospect will not succeed because he falls off after his delivery - what, like Bob Gibson did? Or because he he tilts excessively - what, like Sandy Koufax? Or he strides short - what, like Justin Verlander? Or strides long - what, like Billy Wagner? Or he's a short-armer - what, like Roger Clemens?
And I can go on and on, but you get the point.


I feel like a lot of this comes down to "experts" needing to justify their existence. We all see the results, so how do they differentiate themselves? Often by making stuff up.

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