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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 4:12 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
So the big four lists are:

Baseball America’s Top 100
#8 Rosario
#71 Smith
#100 Dunn

MLB Pipeline's Top 100
#5 Rosario
#63 Smith

ESPN/Law's Top 100
#3 Rosario
#29 Smith
#60 Szapucki
#76 Gsellman
#84 Dunn

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101
#8 Rosario
#17 Gsellman
#69 Szapucki

Is BP the only major that has Crawford ahead of Rosario (and GTorres)? He's also looks like the outlier on Torres, who everyone else is gaga over.

But yeah I do like BP's list for the most part. I think everyone is missing Lindsay tho. Heck, they have Almora still in the top 100 and he cant hit. And Juan Soto at 57 but no Lindsay..?


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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:44 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
So the big four lists are:

Baseball America’s Top 100
#8 Rosario
#71 Smith
#100 Dunn

MLB Pipeline's Top 100
#5 Rosario
#63 Smith

ESPN/Law's Top 100
#3 Rosario
#29 Smith
#60 Szapucki
#76 Gsellman
#84 Dunn

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101
#8 Rosario
#17 Gsellman
#69 Szapucki

FanGraphs is probably more credible than Pipeline but yeah.


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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 7:45 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Ralf wrote:
So the big four lists are:

Baseball America’s Top 100
#8 Rosario
#71 Smith
#100 Dunn

MLB Pipeline's Top 100
#5 Rosario
#63 Smith

ESPN/Law's Top 100
#3 Rosario
#29 Smith
#60 Szapucki
#76 Gsellman
#84 Dunn

Baseball Prospectus' Top 101
#8 Rosario
#17 Gsellman
#69 Szapucki

Is BP the only major that has Crawford ahead of Rosario (and GTorres)? He's also looks like the outlier on Torres, who everyone else is gaga over.

But yeah I do like BP's list for the most part. I think everyone is missing Lindsay tho. Heck, they have Almora still in the top 100 and he cant hit. And Juan Soto at 57 but no Lindsay..?

It's the hamstrings. If he's healthy and performs well this year, he can be like a top 25 prospect within a year. Health is a question mark though.


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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Mon Feb 13, 2017 8:29 pm 
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Hammy two years running limiting playing time and ability to show his speed. Upside wise he's top 3-4 easy

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:07 pm 
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Hank (Durham): Did Desmond Lindsay get any consideration for the list? How heavily impacted is his stock by injury risk?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Smith, Lindsay, and Dunn all would have made a top 150, maybe even a top 125. If this was my personal pref list, I could have found a way to get Lindsay on the 101, I don't know he is that far off Jahmai Jones and Anthony Alford as a prospect, but the risk profile here is so extreme. He was a corner infielder in high school, moving to center on the fly, and he's lost a ton of development time already to hamstring issues. And he still only has a short-season resume. A healthy 2017 in Columbia could really jump him into and up next year's 101 though, because while this isn't a personal pref list, I'm not afraid to blow up a guy I really like.

Either way I don't think he is the 137th best prospect next year or whatever.

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:12 pm 
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Doug (Long Island): Can you list in order of overall potential and general preference: Michael Fulmer, Steven Matz, Robert Gsellman

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Ooh. It's really close once you factor in Matz's durability/injury questions. If forced to order them, I'd go Matz/Fulmer/Gsellman, but it's well within the fudge factor.

Dave (Queens): To put a guy like Gsellman at 17 overall has to mean he has Ace upside right? Or is a guy with the high floor of a #3 starter ranked in that range too? Basically, do you have to have Ace potential to be a top 15/20 prospect

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: A few different ideas to unpack here.

I haven't done my most recent check, but I'm guessing there's maybe 10-12 "aces" in the majors right now. So in any given year, they might not be an "ace" in the minors. Alex Reyes is the closest to that now, hence his ranking, but I couldn't quite pull the trigger on an 80 OFP there because of the control and command concerns. A sure shot #3 could definitely rank there though, and if you want to talk about *ceiling*--which isn't a word I love to discuss--is it impossible Gsellman gets another grade of change and command and turns into Jacob deGrom? No, it isn't, but that wasn't the line of thinking that led us to rank him there. And you could say the same things about Josh Hader, Anderson Espinoza, Brent Honeywell, plenty of pitchers in that same area of the list.

There aren't that many more #2 starters either, so guys with that potential should be top 25 guys.

ammy (Conn): Was it tough to justify putting Maitan on the list and not Andres Gimenez?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: I think Maintain's superior offensive tools made it less difficult, but I get the general point. And on both we are dart-throwing to an extentuntil there are stateside reports.

im (CA): Rank the following for 2017 and beyond: Blake Snell, Robert Gsellman, Jameson Taillon.

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Taillon quietly had a very good season at two levels, and I wouldn't be shocked this year if he takes a step forward and is at least a major league 2 (with the usual health caveats, and there's more there than with the other two). Past him I like both Snell and Gsellman, would take Gsellman today, maybe Snell tomorrow.

Mark (US): Favorites for 2018 top prospect?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Moncada, Robles, Rosario, Jimenez, are the highest guys most likely to still be list-eligible. I could see any of the four taking it. If you want someone further down, how about a crafty quid on Leody Taveras?

teve (Maine): Where would Michael Conforto and Gary Sanchez have fit on this list if eligible?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: I'm trying to think of a good argument against Gary Sanchez at #1. I don't know that I have one.

Conforto I said would be top five at midseason, if you just assume he never gets called up last year, or gets sent back down post-Cespedes trade, and keeps doing the same thing in the minors. Let's assume he gets that same late season cup of coffee and post an .817 OPS in September. I don't think he's that far off Benintendi. The actual truth is a little more complicated of course.

Rick (Savannah): Does a healthy and productive Luis Carpio become a sleeper for the 2018 top 101?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: The 101 is not a personal pref list, and I think the shoulder injury may move him off shortstop--where he wasn't a slam dunk to stick anyway--that makes it a tough 101 profile without like Isan Diaz's raw, Happ's floor, or Barretto's broader base of skills.


Daquan (Tristate): Would Seth Lugo make a list if eligible?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Lugo is a nice story and may be a quite useful major league arm now, but I don't think he'd be a 101 guy. More akin to like Matt Strahm.

Zach (NJ): I have an odd one for you- If you had to bet, and were given 50/50 odds whether or not Andres Gimenez would be on the top 101 in 2018, which side of the bet would you choose?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Without putting my finger on the scale here--since I am the one theoretically signing off on that list--I'll say he gets a just missed entry.

Julio (NY): I'm looking at current Mets prospects and trying to figure out who can jump onto the list next year (obviously I cant predict a out-of-nowhere breakout like Szapucki). Am I wrong to think that any from Gimenez, Lindsay, Molina, Carpio, Becerra, Nido and Alonso have a decent shot at making it next year provided they have a "good" year (maybe not even a true breakout)? Am I rating some of these guys maybe too high?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Lindsay's the most likely. Then Gimenez. Maybe Nido. We struggle with catchers I think, but I should also see a fair bit of Nido this year across the Eastern League.

Ralph (NJ): I love Thomas Szapucki. If he can put together a season in A ball (more innings- say 110-120) that is consistent with his peripherals from last year, how far up this list will he shoot? top 30?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: He'd have been close to that without the back issues in 2016 (could say the same about Allard and Puk too). A full healthy year at Columbia with that stuff could get him that high, sure.

Kenneth (Qarth): What needs to happen for Tomas Nido to be on this list next year? Not impossible, right?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Do it again in Double-A.

Eric (Delaware): If Marcos Molina looks like he did before injury (with some mechanical tweaks) and doesnt get hurt, is he a top 101 guy?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: He wouldn't be that far off the type of "probably a reliever" arms at the back of the list or the "injury questions" arms in the same range. Those are a lot of ifs though, and "mechanical tweaks" is a polite way to put it.

Demi (Canton): The Amed Rosario v Gleyber Torres debate is one of my favorites. Which side are you on and why?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Rosario due to the superior shortstop tools. It's another one within the fudge factor though depending on how you feel about the relative risks in the offensive profile.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/chat/ ... hatId=1396

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:23 pm 
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wow, a lot of Mets stuff there.


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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 4:42 pm 
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Seems lukewarm on Gimenez.

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:12 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
Seems lukewarm on Gimenez.



1. Was previously "lukewarm" (at best) on Rosario
2. Almost certainly has never seen Gimenez play

100% not a knock on Jeff at all.

Maitan is being compared to Chipper Jones/Miggy. Not sure how it's a knock.

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:15 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Ralf wrote:
Seems lukewarm on Gimenez.



1. Was previously "lukewarm" (at best) on Rosario
2. Almost certainly has never seen Gimenez play

100% not a knock on Jeff at all.

Maitan is being compared to Chipper Jones/Miggy. Not sure how it's a knock.

I didn't think it was lukewarm on Gimenez either.... more just acknowledgement that he's just 18 and a long way away.

How many in the top 101 haven't made it out of SS ball? More than a handful? Any? I haven't looked.

on edit: there were about a dozen - mostly high picks from the '16 draft. That said, just missing the next 101 won't be some sort of crime. Being in the conversation will be an accomplishment.


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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 5:28 pm 
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The issue is DSL stats have "proven" to mean close to nothing so a guy who dominate the DSL and still be doubted whereas holding your own in the GCL at a young age is viewed as impressive. Maitan is being compared to those "all time great" caliber IFA's. A once in a decade type. Jeff even admits before they come stateside it's mostly just reading the same scouting reports we do. People are RAVING about Delvin Perez despite being popped for PED's with a solid .294/.352/.393 debut season in the GCL. Pre-US play means almost nothing outside of the scant "he's been impressive" "as good as reported" etc. Unless I missed something there was nothing in his comment that leads me to believe he's down on Gimenez at all. Called him a potential top 100 prospect next year and didn't scoff at him being compared to an "uber" IFA prospect.

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 Post subject: Re: The OFFICIAL pre-2017 season NYFS Top 50 Prospects
PostPosted: Tue Feb 14, 2017 6:24 pm 
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I'll have to re-read it but the reason I said lukewarm was he seemed to indicate even with a good first season stateside he wasn't sure Gimenez would be top 101 next year.

No biggy really. Just was my initial reading.

On edit, here is the quote:

Quote:
Zach (NJ): I have an odd one for you- If you had to bet, and were given 50/50 odds whether or not Andres Gimenez would be on the top 101 in 2018, which side of the bet would you choose?

The Top 101 Prospect Chat with Jeffrey Paternostro: Without putting my finger on the scale here--since I am the one theoretically signing off on that list--I'll say he gets a just missed entry.

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