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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 9:56 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
I have no idea what Nimmo will turn into. The power potential is there, at least some power. 15-20 homers. Will he hit for average at all (.260 or better?) Will the walks continue? He's in my god only knows category. Cecchini too. Some people have written him off but I could still see a league average starting 2nd baseman and maybe occasional SS, which isn't all that bad. I don't think either guy will be a big factor in 2018 though.



All due respect (and Nimmo has shown some skills) but 15-20 homers hitting .260 + walks = a solid regular. Where are we getting this 15-20 homer projection from? He has 1 homer in 92 PA's this season, hit 3 in LV. If anything the power projection is likely what holds him back at this point. I'm not suggesting it's impossible he grows into power (players often have) but 15-20 homers at this juncture seems like a random "dream" than anything based on what he's shown. 40 career minor league homers, 17 of which came in the PCL (171 games).

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:03 am 
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He has nearly 200 PA and a Guillorme-esque .067 iso. If you want to say he'll tweak his approach and tap into some power, sure. But the idea of him hitting with power is some certain outcome is silly. He's clearly demonstrated, for now, there is NO power there.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:04 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
I have no idea what Nimmo will turn into. The power potential is there, at least some power. 15-20 homers. Will he hit for average at all (.260 or better?) Will the walks continue? He's in my god only knows category. Cecchini too. Some people have written him off but I could still see a league average starting 2nd baseman and maybe occasional SS, which isn't all that bad. I don't think either guy will be a big factor in 2018 though.



All due respect (and Nimmo has shown some skills) but 15-20 homers hitting .260 + walks = a solid regular. Where are we getting this 15-20 homer projection from? He has 1 homer in 92 PA's this season, hit 3 in LV. If anything the power projection is likely what holds him back at this point. I'm not suggesting it's impossible he grows into power (players often have) but 15-20 homers at this juncture seems like a random "dream" than anything based on what he's shown. 40 career minor league homers, 17 of which came in the PCL (171 games).

No question that's ambitious right now. However, he seems like a prime candidate for them to work with to try and have him get more lift in his swing. If they have some success in that effort it could pay off handsomely. Either way, I'll continue to say that the floor looks pretty high for Nimmo... not sure there is a lot of ceiling to go, but he still looks like he belongs IMO, esp if we grant that he's still a work in progress.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:10 am 
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HK,
1000% not saying "there is no way Nimmo ever grows into a 15-20 hr hitter". It would be absurd to say that. What I'm saying is it's kind of "crazy" to pencil him in for 15-20 homers based on the data we have so far. To THIS point Nimmo looks like a guy who can be a valuable extra piece without a ton of speed or power. 15-20 homers and suddenly that looks like a solid regular. I don't think it's really fair to suggest he's going to be a 15-20 homer guy beyond "hope" or "player X eventually grew into it". It's not as if he's displayed "surprising" power at the MLB level etc.

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:34 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
I have no idea what Nimmo will turn into. The power potential is there, at least some power. 15-20 homers. Will he hit for average at all (.260 or better?) Will the walks continue? He's in my god only knows category. Cecchini too. Some people have written him off but I could still see a league average starting 2nd baseman and maybe occasional SS, which isn't all that bad. I don't think either guy will be a big factor in 2018 though.


I haven't given up on either one. I do not believe there is any chance they will be stars but I do believe they both have the tools to be good, contributing players. There is still love here for Dilson Herrara. I see these players having the same chance of being good as Dilson has, who btw, hasn't shown much since he was traded.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:36 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Meanwhile Harvey is supposedly going to pitch on short rest Wednesday... yikes.


I really think it has come down to "we need to see what he's got." He is IMHO, auditioning for a job next year; if he fails, he will not be tendered.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:37 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
HK,
1000% not saying "there is no way Nimmo ever grows into a 15-20 hr hitter". It would be absurd to say that. What I'm saying is it's kind of "crazy" to pencil him in for 15-20 homers based on the data we have so far. To THIS point Nimmo looks like a guy who can be a valuable extra piece without a ton of speed or power. 15-20 homers and suddenly that looks like a solid regular. I don't think it's really fair to suggest he's going to be a 15-20 homer guy beyond "hope" or "player X eventually grew into it". It's not as if he's displayed "surprising" power at the MLB level etc.

Who said he should be penciled in for 15-20 HRs? I read this conversation as more vague talk about potential as he matures a bit.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:42 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
HK,
1000% not saying "there is no way Nimmo ever grows into a 15-20 hr hitter". It would be absurd to say that. What I'm saying is it's kind of "crazy" to pencil him in for 15-20 homers based on the data we have so far. To THIS point Nimmo looks like a guy who can be a valuable extra piece without a ton of speed or power. 15-20 homers and suddenly that looks like a solid regular. I don't think it's really fair to suggest he's going to be a 15-20 homer guy beyond "hope" or "player X eventually grew into it". It's not as if he's displayed "surprising" power at the MLB level etc.

Who said he should be penciled in for 15-20 HRs? I read this conversation as more vague talk about potential as he matures a bit.


No one can realistically pencil him in for anything yet. He is like a pitcher who has converted to an outfielder. He is still a work in progress. Is he strong? I believe so. His peak may be farther out than most players who have been playing since they were 8 YO. With that said, I again believe he will never be a star...those signs just aren't there. However, he may be better than just "ok"


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:45 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
HK,
1000% not saying "there is no way Nimmo ever grows into a 15-20 hr hitter". It would be absurd to say that. What I'm saying is it's kind of "crazy" to pencil him in for 15-20 homers based on the data we have so far. To THIS point Nimmo looks like a guy who can be a valuable extra piece without a ton of speed or power. 15-20 homers and suddenly that looks like a solid regular. I don't think it's really fair to suggest he's going to be a 15-20 homer guy beyond "hope" or "player X eventually grew into it". It's not as if he's displayed "surprising" power at the MLB level etc.

Who said he should be penciled in for 15-20 HRs? I read this conversation as more vague talk about potential as he matures a bit.


Where is the "power potential" for 15-20 homers coming from? Other guys who grew into power? His frame? He has not shown 15-20 homer "power potential" statistically or even his swing. What would this be based on beyond hope/adjustments/ other players who have grown into power?

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 10:47 am 
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Again I'm not saying he can't possibly become that but based on his numbers and swing he would seem "more likely" to be a less than ideal power CO wouldn't you say? Based on the data we have NOW vs what could happen

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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:10 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
HK,
1000% not saying "there is no way Nimmo ever grows into a 15-20 hr hitter". It would be absurd to say that. What I'm saying is it's kind of "crazy" to pencil him in for 15-20 homers based on the data we have so far. To THIS point Nimmo looks like a guy who can be a valuable extra piece without a ton of speed or power. 15-20 homers and suddenly that looks like a solid regular. I don't think it's really fair to suggest he's going to be a 15-20 homer guy beyond "hope" or "player X eventually grew into it". It's not as if he's displayed "surprising" power at the MLB level etc.

Who said he should be penciled in for 15-20 HRs? I read this conversation as more vague talk about potential as he matures a bit.


Where is the "power potential" for 15-20 homers coming from? Other guys who grew into power? His frame? He has not shown 15-20 homer "power potential" statistically or even his swing. What would this be based on beyond hope/adjustments/ other players who have grown into power?

"No question that's ambitious right now."

That's the first thing I said above. I followed that with if they work with him to get more lift it could pay off nicely. Aside from working with him, he has the frame to generate power and has, at least in a modest sample, showed a strong hard hit rate.

If you're going to go strictly from stat-scouting, well we know what his minor league record shows. Looking forward, it depends to what extent, if any, one thinks he's still progressing as a player.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets Injury thread
PostPosted: Tue Sep 05, 2017 11:39 am 
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If Nimmo develops into something better than he is, fine. But until he does it's a huge red mark on Sandy's ledger. If the best you can come up with on a #1 pick is a singles hitter whose at best a 4th OF, then it's a massive fail


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