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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 7:29 am 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
slugox wrote:

Certainly the pick can turn out to be a bust. I'd still rather have the highest one possible.


In which case would have been Verlander instead of Humber....


or Matt Bush. :twisted:

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Thu Aug 24, 2017 4:13 pm 
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Big tank weekend coming up. Could move up to 5th pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 10:19 am 
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Looking good for between 5-7. If we lose the next 4 games, we're in the drivers seat for 5.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:19 am 
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oakland & Cincy have won a few games lately (Oakland even had a 5 game win streak recently). Currently #5.

#1 - SF 58-93. The Giants have lost 16 of their last 22. Interestingly, they still pull fans even in last place. 3.1 million per game.

#2 - Philly. 59-91 Philly's won 10 of their last 18, enabling the Giants to slip below them. 1.5 games better than the Phils.

#3 - Whitesox 60-89. The team that went into the season selling is holding steady at #3.

#4 - Detroit 62-88. The Tigers have lost well lately, wining just 4 of their last 18.

#5 - our Mets. 65-85. At 3 games better, we might have a tough time catching Detroit, especially since they've been losing too. Like the Whitesox, the Mets are mostly part for the course, losing more than they win.

#6 - Cincy, 66-84. Cincy's been kind enough to win a few lately including sweeps over Pittsburgh & Milwaukee. Cincy's won 13 of their last 23. Just 1 game separates us though.

#7 - Oakland 67-83. Oakland had an 8 game losing streak followed by wining 9 of 12. That's 9-11 over their last 20 - enough for them to slip from #5 to #7.

The Pads, also 67-83 are tied with Oakland and Atlanta, 67-81 is #9.

#10 is probably out of reach with 70 wins.

So, mets are 2 games away from 7-8, 3 games away from #9 and 3 games away from #4. Still lots of ways it can go.

I hope they hold onto the #5 pick.

with 4 games against the Braves, they're still in play and could slip below us if the Mets take that series. 3-1 or 4-0.

Go Mets!!

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:21 am 
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I'm amazed at the Giants attendance. That park doesn't look nearly that big...

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 8:54 am 
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It's all irrelevant with the team likely to opt for either another high floor/low ceiling type of bat or a prep arm that will take 5 years to develop if his arm doesn't explode.


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Tue Sep 19, 2017 9:56 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
It's all irrelevant with the team likely to opt for either another high floor/low ceiling type of bat or a prep arm that will take 5 years to develop if his arm doesn't explode.


#5 is an extra 1.4-1.5 million in draft money overall compared to #9. Some of that is lost in negotiation with the higher pick, but it still doesn't suck.

and there's the rule 5 (ducks).

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Wed Sep 20, 2017 4:57 pm 
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Huuuge tank series. In solid position going into the last three series. The #6 pick looks close to a lock (Reds have Sawx, Brewers and Cubs last three series so they'll pass us).

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 12:27 am 
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Cincy lost, they hold onto #5, 1/2 game and the tiebreaker ahead of us.

Atlanta, Pittsburgh, Oakland all won (Oakland's won 6 in a row). 3.5 games separate the mets and #7. Unless the mets put together a string of wins (or Detroit or the Whitesox do), it looks a lot like 5 or 6 right now. More likely 6.

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:31 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
It's all irrelevant with the team likely to opt for either another high floor/low ceiling type of bat or a prep arm that will take 5 years to develop if his arm doesn't explode.

1. Aside from Michael Fulmer, this team has never taken a prep arm especially early and even Fulmer was the 44th pick. So not sure why you'd think that's especially likely, although obviously it could theoretically happen.

2. "Low ceiling" bats don't go in the top 10 unless it's a clear money saving move. Honestly, can't think of any this decade aside from two picks by the Royals (Hunter Dozier, Christian Colon). And yeah there were people saying Conforto was that but that was nothing more than a ridiculous statement by people who hadn't seen him and were making half-baked assumptions based off half-baked scouting reports by people who also hadn't seen him.


I, however, do think the only real difference between 5 and 9 or whatever may just be the money. And that impact has been lessened with the new CBA. Just float the second tier guy you want to your pick.


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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 1:42 am 
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Id like to see the mets draft jeremy eierman

should move from his spot to a corner, maybe third if we can develop him there. Bats real good, wuld prefer a different inf position though

as long as mets find a way to get 5, we should be golden

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 Post subject: Re: Tank Watch is officially on.
PostPosted: Sun Sep 24, 2017 2:24 am 
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ilikeike29 wrote:

I, however, do think the only real difference between 5 and 9 or whatever may just be the money. And that impact has been lessened with the new CBA. Just float the second tier guy you want to your pick.


There's never a guarantee, but if a draft has 5 top guys (occasionally the case), a team has a chance at getting a #1 pick talent at #5. They mgiht need to overslot a little if that guy falls, but that can happen at #5. Less likely at #9 unless the player has either fallen due to unsignability or some other reason (Appel).

I think #5 has more upside and obviously more money if the team decides to underslot and spend later, but overall it's such a mixed bag that there's not a huge difference.

#5 has had more all star / 30 war players than #9. (since 2000: Posey, Braun, Tex taken at 5 vs just Zito at 9) - and yes, I get that there's a whole lot of random in that sample size and at #5, and maybe just a 1 in 6 chance at getting a Posey, Braun or Tex.

9: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0

5: https://www.baseball-reference.com/draf ... type_unk=0

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