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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:36 am 
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I wouldn't be opposed to Kinsler if the deal is right. Still has some power and can swipe a bag (22 HR/14 SB this year), the BB/K rate is solid, and FG has his defense as a positive. Seeing almost 4 pitchers per AB too. Seems like he's just getting BABIP'd a little bit this year, which is odd considering his balls in play qualifying as "hard hit" is at a career high at 37.1%.

Though I'm not sure Kinsler wouldn't be all that different in terms of overall production than bringing back Walker. Not sure who would cost more. Kinsler would need to be traded for, right? Ehh, would rather keep the chips...

I'm also of the mindset that money should be spent elsewhere and Flores should be given the 2nd base job. Yes, his D is shaky, but let him bop 20-25 HR in a full-time role and be happy about it considering the relatively little he'll be getting paid compared to a pricey, aging vet.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Mon Sep 25, 2017 11:56 am 
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The Juice wrote:
I wouldn't be opposed to Kinsler if the deal is right. Still has some power and can swipe a bag (22 HR/14 SB this year), the BB/K rate is solid, and FG has his defense as a positive. Seeing almost 4 pitchers per AB too. Seems like he's just getting BABIP'd a little bit this year, which is odd considering his balls in play qualifying as "hard hit" is at a career high at 37.1%.

Though I'm not sure Kinsler wouldn't be all that different in terms of overall production than bringing back Walker. Not sure who would cost more. Kinsler would need to be traded for, right? Ehh, would rather keep the chips...

I'm also of the mindset that money should be spent elsewhere and Flores should be given the 2nd base job. Yes, his D is shaky, but let him bop 20-25 HR in a full-time role and be happy about it considering the relatively little he'll be getting paid compared to a pricey, aging vet.

At this point, I could see his September effort get rewarding and the team picks up ACab's option. But I could also see them stick him at 2B and rationalize that his bat will make up for his lack of range there. But that would be only if they did indeed sign Cozart to play 3B. Otherwise, the more likely seems to be that they'll put the whole band back together and that would mean ACab at 3B and may even give some consideration to Flo at 2B. I don't know how talking about defense would square with Flo playing anywhere but 1B but this is the Mets so it's certainly possible.

I would think that Flo is #1 the safety net for Dom at 1B. Smith at 1B represents a pretty big hole for the team relative to the average ML 1Bman and so it seems necessary that they have a backup plan for him. That looks like either Flo or TJR, but the latter will be just coming off of TJ surgery so that appears shaky at the moment.

Of course, they could always make a deal to add a 1B/OFer... Piscotty? The Cards seem like they might need to pare back their OFers. Maybe that's a fit. One for one swap for AJRamos? I think he's signed for like 4/28M so it's a manageable contract. He's just a tweener, which can be both good and bad. Idk, at least he can play an OF corner.

That comes back to 2B. I would think they'll look to add someone there if they do decide to keep ACab. And that way they can keep Flo at 1B (or use him as a chip) rather than expose him at 2B.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Sep 26, 2017 11:49 pm 
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Nimmo CF tonight. Good to see. Would open up flexibility

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:15 am 
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I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option or add other long term option)


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:43 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option)


There is talk in SF that they may try and move Belt because of his upcoming salary. He might be someone to look at (understanding he has had a concussion most of the year). Belt is basically what people hope Domo can become.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:44 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option)


I'd say most likely 'D' here, thinking that some combination of Wilmer, Dom, TJ will get it done there. Provided they spend/trade for someone at 2B or the OF, I can live with that. I am wondering if Sandy, in maybe one of his last years, really goes after a FA here thinking, "it's not my money." The Wilpons have to be feeling some pressure after this year, and with the pitchers getting close to being expensive/leaving/falling apart...

Sign JD Martinez to a Ces-like deal: 4 years, $100M.*
Sign RA Dickey-type: 1 year, $9M with a vesting option at 200 innings for $10M.
Sign Steve Cishek: 2 years, $15M.
Re-sign Reyes (just feels inevitable): 1 year, $8M
Pick up Cabrera's option

Lineup
1. Reyes 3B
2. Conforto CF (Nimmo if he's not ready)
3. Cespedes LF
4. Martinez RF
5. Flores/Smith 1B
6. Cabrera 2B
7. Rosario SS
8. d'Arnaud C

Bench
Flores/Smith IF
Reyes IF/OF
Nimmo OF
Lagares OF
Plawecki C

Rotation
deGrom
Syndergaard
Matz
Harvey/Wheeler
Dickey

Bullpen
Familia
Ramos
Cishek
Blevins
Callahan
Smoker/Sewald/Rhame/Smith/Edgin/Robles, etc.
Wheeler/Harvey**

*If this doesn't work out, it wouldn't be a huge dropoff to look at guys like Bruce, Jon Jay, Melky, Dyson, Cain, Duda, Walker, here. They'd all be cheaper. Obviously, you're filling a different hole with Duda or Walker.

**I think, if one of these guys makes the transition to the BP, they'll be high effort, one inning stints with the thought that they could be back-end types.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 9:44 am 
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Ralf wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option)


There is talk in SF that they may try and move Belt because of his upcoming salary. He might be someone to look at (understanding he has had a concussion most of the year). Belt is basically what people hope Domo can become.

Would have been all over it if not for the concussion.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:00 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option)


With Wilmer able to play some 1st base, and TJ as a solid reserve at 2B/3B, I'm not concerned about Dom. If he needs more time next year, they have options and Wilmer at 1B isn't the worst thing in the world.

I think Dom will be fine, but even if he struggles next year and spends some time in AAA, I think it's too soon to look for a replacement. He'll never be Conforto, but I think he'll be fine over the next year or two. His .266 WOBA doesn't trouble me at all. What would Nimmo's WOBA have been at 22 years old? (2015) if he'd gotten Dom's playing time?

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:01 am 
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My instincts tell me this ends up as some sort of pu pu platter with some rotation of characters at 1B.

And since it seems like inertia will carry the team to pick up ACab's option (just because), I can even see him eventually in the 1B mix and certainly if they go out and add another 3Bman.

Under the category of what I'd love to see but almost certainly won't: Falling into category d, I'd love to see them pick up Christian Walker from the DBs and give him a shot.

Long shot: If the market fails to develop, could we see Bruce re-signed to like a 2/24M and fill that 1B/RF gap? I'd lean to this being a very long shot.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:01 am 
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Why not just go with Lugo rather than Dickey?


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:03 am 
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yalikeMetroplitans wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
I'm surprised that 1B hasn't been more of a conversation. This looks like a real potential problem coming... making no long term judgments, but Dom Smith looks pretty overmatched. He's had 168 PAs now and is sporting a .266 wOBA.

So.... what are thinking they are going to do there??
a) Roll the dice on Dom
b) Start off with some sort of hedge or position share including Dom
c) send Dom back for more marinating and sign a 1Bman presumably to a short term deal?
d) none of the above (ie: go with some internal option)


I'd say most likely 'D' here, thinking that some combination of Wilmer, Dom, TJ will get it done there. Provided they spend/trade for someone at 2B or the OF, I can live with that. I am wondering if Sandy, in maybe one of his last years, really goes after a FA here thinking, "it's not my money." The Wilpons have to be feeling some pressure after this year, and with the pitchers getting close to being expensive/leaving/falling apart...

Sign JD Martinez to a Ces-like deal: 4 years, $100M.*
Sign RA Dickey-type: 1 year, $9M with a vesting option at 200 innings for $10M.
Sign Steve Cishek: 2 years, $15M.
Re-sign Reyes (just feels inevitable): 1 year, $8M
Pick up Cabrera's option

Lineup
1. Reyes 3B
2. Conforto CF (Nimmo if he's not ready)
3. Cespedes LF
4. Martinez RF
5. Flores/Smith 1B
6. Cabrera 2B
7. Rosario SS
8. d'Arnaud C

Bench
Flores/Smith IF
Reyes IF/OF
Nimmo OF
Lagares OF
Plawecki C

Rotation
deGrom
Syndergaard
Matz
Harvey/Wheeler
Dickey

Bullpen
Familia
Ramos
Cishek
Blevins
Callahan
Smoker/Sewald/Rhame/Smith/Edgin/Robles, etc.
Wheeler/Harvey**

*If this doesn't work out, it wouldn't be a huge dropoff to look at guys like Bruce, Jon Jay, Melky, Dyson, Cain, Duda, Walker, here. They'd all be cheaper. Obviously, you're filling a different hole with Duda or Walker.

**I think, if one of these guys makes the transition to the BP, they'll be high effort, one inning stints with the thought that they could be back-end types.


I feel like not giving Jose Reyes $8M is a better move, but maybe I'm in the minority on that one.

Why are you writing in Callahan for a spot and then lumping in Sewald with terrible/unproven guys like Smoker, Smith, etc.? Sewald's ERA might not be pretty, but the peripherals indicate he should be an OK middle reliever in the 6th or 7th inning. He's not going to light the world on fire, but certainly he's proven more than Callahan, no?

But all that aside, what makes you think the Mets are going to spend $50M this offseason? I'm just not seeing it.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Sep 27, 2017 10:08 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
My instincts tell me this ends up as some sort of pu pu platter with some rotation of characters at 1B.

And since it seems like inertia will carry the team to pick up ACab's option (just because), I can even see him eventually in the 1B mix and certainly if they go out and add another 3Bman.

Under the category of what I'd love to see but almost certainly won't: Falling into category d, I'd love to see them pick up Christian Walker from the DBs and give him a shot.

Long shot: If the market fails to develop, could we see Bruce re-signed to like a 2/24M and fill that 1B/RF gap? I'd lean to this being a very long shot.


Can Bruce play 1st base? Cause I'm not sure he can and that's a problem. If Bruce actually could play 1st base, I'd be all over that as a nice solution.

Todd Frazier, and his .210 average and too many strikeouts troubles me, but he's a 1B/3B which is a plus.

Goldschmidt's a free agent in 2020 and Walker might be the guy the Diamondbacks are looking to replace him. Why would they trade him? I also think he's another 1B/AAA type. If we're going to replace Dom we need an MLB ready type.

If the D'backs want to move Walker I'd trade for him cause it never hurts to have options, but I don't see why they'd want to move him.

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