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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 5:24 pm 
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northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Nimmo RF
Cabrera 3B
Conforto CF (yes, I know, optimist)
Cespedes LF
Neil Walker 2B
Dom Smith 1B
Amed Rosario SS
TdA/Plaw C

Bench will be Lagares, Flores, TJR, TdA/Plaw and Aoki

Rotation will be DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and Jake Arrieta in a shocker (this is where they spend the money they didn't spend on the lineup).

Bullpen will be Familia, Ramos, Reed (who was bad enough with RedSox that those closer opportunities don't come to pass), Steve Cishek or Joe Smith, Lugo, Smoker, and Blevins.

Robles is sold, Sewald and Bradford are first callups from AAA. Goeddel finally cut loose. Harvey winds up being non-tendered after all.

Walker costs 3/35. Arrieta 5/90. Reed 2/18. Cishek or Smith 1/6 with an option.

There's your offseason. Not sure what that leaves the payroll at.


This seems really heavy on devils we know.


Interesting with the Arrieta, Walker combo. I see a NW reunion,
Not so much the Arrieta supposition.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:08 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Nimmo RF
Cabrera 3B
Conforto CF (yes, I know, optimist)
Cespedes LF
Neil Walker 2B
Dom Smith 1B
Amed Rosario SS
TdA/Plaw C

Bench will be Lagares, Flores, TJR, TdA/Plaw and BELTRAN

Rotation will be DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and Jake Arrieta in a shocker (this is where they spend the money they didn't spend on the lineup).

Bullpen will be Familia, Ramos, Reed (who was bad enough with RedSox that those closer opportunities don't come to pass), Steve Cishek or Joe Smith, Lugo, Smoker, and Blevins.

Robles is sold, Sewald and Bradford are first callups from AAA. Goeddel finally cut loose. Harvey winds up being non-tendered after all.

Walker costs 3/35. Arrieta 5/90. Reed 2/18. Cishek or Smith 1/6 with an option.

There's your offseason. Not sure what that leaves the payroll at.


Pretty sound prediction but I have one exception; Beltran over Aoki. I really think they're going to try and bring him in as a last hurrah / HoF nod. He only has to pinch-hit and play once a week at most.

The fans will eat it up too.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 6:34 pm 
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You'd think Beltran would want an AL team with a chance to DH and get more ABs for the stats if it's a HoF push

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 7:09 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
You'd think Beltran would want an AL team with a chance to DH and get more ABs for the stats if it's a HoF push


He's already in. I'm talking about getting him to wear a Mets cap in the HoF. That nod.

I'm also of the mind that he could serve as a good mentor for the younger players.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:22 pm 
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MetsWhiz93 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
All quiet here on 2018 lineup thoughts..?



- Non-tender or tender/trade Harvey
- Keep Asdrubal
- Convince Wright to retire (have the FO role for him ready, jersey retirement next year, etc)

Image

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Tue Oct 10, 2017 8:41 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
You'd think Beltran would want an AL team with a chance to DH and get more ABs for the stats if it's a HoF push


He's already in. I'm talking about getting him to wear a Mets cap in the HoF. That nod.

I'm also of the mind that he could serve as a good mentor for the younger players.


In what world does the Mets 5th outfielder ever play once a week?

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 1:26 am 
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Beltran could get to 3000 if he could convince someone to sign him as their DH for a few more years even after his crappy year this year.

If he's playing, it's in the AL. If he's signing with the Mets it'll be one of those sign-and-immediately-retire deals.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 6:19 am 
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Doc saying DW has a chance to return. Is 65% of DW better than 100% of A-Cab or Wilmer?http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2017/10/top_nyc_spinal_surgeon_says_mets_david_wright_has.html

Any 2018 lineup projection that doesn't factor Wright into it is probably incorrect. If he can play, he will play.

I am starting to think that Northway's NW reunion and a passel of veteran arms in the pen scenario is probably the most likely.

CF Lagares
SS Rosario
RF Conforto
LF Cespedes
2B Walker
1B Smith/Wilmer
3B Wright
C TdA/Plaw


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 7:33 am 
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Disco Ball wrote:
Doc saying DW has a chance to return. Is 65% of DW better than 100% of A-Cab or Wilmer?http://www.nj.com/mets/index.ssf/2017/10/top_nyc_spinal_surgeon_says_mets_david_wright_has.html

Any 2018 lineup projection that doesn't factor Wright into it is probably incorrect. If he can play, he will play.

I am starting to think that Northway's NW reunion and a passel of veteran arms in the pen scenario is probably the most likely.

CF Lagares
SS Rosario
RF Conforto
LF Cespedes
2B Walker
1B Smith/Wilmer
3B Wright
C TdA/Plaw


Note that I was quoting someone else's post and definitely was not advocating for re-signing Neil Walker.

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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:04 am 
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northway wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Nimmo RF
Cabrera 3B
Conforto CF (yes, I know, optimist)
Cespedes LF
Neil Walker 2B
Dom Smith 1B
Amed Rosario SS
TdA/Plaw C

Bench will be Lagares, Flores, TJR, TdA/Plaw and Aoki

Rotation will be DeGrom, Syndergaard, Wheeler, Matz and Jake Arrieta in a shocker (this is where they spend the money they didn't spend on the lineup).

Bullpen will be Familia, Ramos, Reed (who was bad enough with RedSox that those closer opportunities don't come to pass), Steve Cishek or Joe Smith, Lugo, Smoker, and Blevins.

Robles is sold, Sewald and Bradford are first callups from AAA. Goeddel finally cut loose. Harvey winds up being non-tendered after all.

Walker costs 3/35. Arrieta 5/90. Reed 2/18. Cishek or Smith 1/6 with an option.

There's your offseason. Not sure what that leaves the payroll at.


This seems really heavy on devils we know.


I was going for realistic.


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 9:33 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

I was going for realistic.


Arrieta??


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 Post subject: Re: 2018 lineup?
PostPosted: Wed Oct 11, 2017 10:51 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

I was going for realistic.


Arrieta??


They're gonna spend somewhere. Maybe they just bench Nimmo and give Bruce the 4/60 or whatever he's gonna seek. But the Mets usually are reactive, and if they operate that way again, pitching is clearly where they are going to sink their money. And that price range, if its realistic for Arrieta (I honestly don't know), would fit the Mets comfort zone of paying enough, but never looking at the top of the market/long years.

A few things I am confident of:

- They will spend enough to be able to claim any narrative of "they don't spend!" is wrong, the same way they do every winter when Sandy comes back with "Whattya mean we didn't spend!? We signed __, ___, and ___!" Still may lead to a lower payroll with all of the salaries coming off, but they'll be signings.

- They will not "give up" on the uber prospects (Rosario, Smith) despite poor showings. They hate forever decisions, they hate seeming rash, and so the plan is for those guys to be cornerstones, and they will be given that chance until they either become that, or its become too obvious (and too expensive) to continue that charade. So I expect exactly 0 $$ or trade effort on 1B this offseason, despite what some may project.

- There will be no trades of note. Again, they just never trade in the offseason - things move quick, there are lots of bidders, etc. and that doesn't mesh well with our deliberate approach, which is why the biggest offseason trade since 2012 is...[?]. It is what it is. Also, we have nothing to deal (interesting minor league relievers notwithstanding).

- The manager search will drag on longer than it should, which leads to a late start to actual player movement.

So with those parameters in place, I have them spending like ~35m in AAV on free agents [EDIT, I said this assuming the usual backloading, but maybe more like $40m], mostly familiar faces, and one "surprise."

Adding in the Arb expectations for Ramos (9), Familia (7.5), Wheeler (2), TdA (4), Wilmer (3), deGrom (9), Syndergaard (2) + Cabrera and Blevins' options to the $55m we have committed right now, that puts us at like $140m, which feels right.


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