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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 5:50 pm 
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Everybody knows I spend 25% of my days loudly yelling at people that Matt Reynolds is not a major leaguer, but objectively, what does Cecchini do better other than "Hey! He was a 1st round pick (5 years ago)."

And to that point, Reynolds was a 2nd round pick, so they both get "Draft Pedigree" as their best attributes.

Cheech stinks. Reynolds stinks. We don't have to pick one or the other.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:02 pm 
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Cheech may very well stink as bad as Reynolds or worse. However, Reynolds is 26 and we've seen him a bunch of times already and therefore pretty much know what there is to know about him.

Cheech, as I said, may ultimately also stink, but he's 23, and doesn't keep getting opportunity after opportunity up here. Once he's had 150 PAs and still hasn't shown anything, then I'm on board. But people have to just stop trying to outdo each other to be the first to proclaim someone stinks after seeing 3 PAs. This is baseball. Good players have lousy stretches. Not that he's an all-star already but everyone was rushing to toss Nimmo overboard for months. Come on.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 6:32 pm 
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Cheech doesn't stink. You can't stink at 23. That's an uneven development issue. If he is doing the same things at 26, yep he's a bust. He's one year removed from back to back .800 OPS years, one at Binghamton 3.5 years younger than the crowd.

Not everyone arrives in MLB at 22, 23.

And for the record, I was one of the more vocal critics of the pick.

You lose nothing by letting him play out the string in the starting lineup. Used to be prospects required a bit of patience...

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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 7:53 pm 
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Cheech made a hek of a defensive play the other day. He's got good range and might be a plus 2nd baseman defensively. Questions exist for his arm making the long throw, so maybe not 3rd or short, but his glove is fine at 2nd. Leaps and bounds better than Wilmer/TJ.

People who say it's not, I have to ask what they've seen, cause what I've seen, he's a plus glove at 2nd. (now, maybe he struggles with the double play with the runner heading towards him, so Jury's still out on that), but I think the talk about him being a bad glove is based on bad throws he made in Vegas in 2016, not on how he looks.

His bat however, needs work, but I have two words for that assumption. Twenty Three.

Oh, and Nido - congrats. Welcome to the show. You've earned it.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 8:04 pm 
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I don't see Cecchini as a plus defender at 2B. I see average range, an iffy arm, and suspect hands. I think he's solid average there. Not much different than TJ, who has average range, a bad arm, and decent hands. Cecchini has better instincts but there's not much difference.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Tue Sep 12, 2017 11:32 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
Appropriate move.

Also, I would much rather see Boyd have 3 ABs every 5th day til the end of the year than Cheech (someone who needs to be removed from the 40 man this offseason).


Are you actually terry collins? Because if you are, I have quite a long list of expletive filled sentences to say to you :wink:

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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:48 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
Cheech doesn't stink. You can't stink at 23. That's an uneven development issue. If he is doing the same things at 26, yep he's a bust. He's one year removed from back to back .800 OPS years, one at Binghamton 3.5 years younger than the crowd.

Not everyone arrives in MLB at 22, 23.

And for the record, I was one of the more vocal critics of the pick.

You lose nothing by letting him play out the string in the starting lineup. Used to be prospects required a bit of patience...


You can absolutely stink at a young age. Not every guy needs to get a long run of failure for you to conclude on them. I don't need to see another 300 Matt Reynolds PA in the interest of giving him a full season. I don't need to include Chasen Bradford in my pen next year to see if his first 10 major league innings represented his true talent level. This idea that everyone needs a long look is silly, and how a lot of a bad baseball gets played. Looks are EARNED, not a birthright. If Cecchini had earned a look, he would've been playing here long ago given the state of the infield. Instead, he was a below average PCL player.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 11:58 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
Cheech doesn't stink. You can't stink at 23. That's an uneven development issue. If he is doing the same things at 26, yep he's a bust. He's one year removed from back to back .800 OPS years, one at Binghamton 3.5 years younger than the crowd.

Not everyone arrives in MLB at 22, 23.

And for the record, I was one of the more vocal critics of the pick.

You lose nothing by letting him play out the string in the starting lineup. Used to be prospects required a bit of patience...


You can absolutely stink at a young age. Not every guy needs to get a long run of failure for you to conclude on them. I don't need to see another 300 Matt Reynolds PA in the interest of giving him a full season. I don't need to include Chasen Bradford in my pen next year to see if his first 10 major league innings represented his true talent level. This idea that everyone needs a long look is silly, and how a lot of a bad baseball gets played. Looks are EARNED, not a birthright. If Cecchini had earned a look, he would've been playing here long ago given the state of the infield. Instead, he was a below average PCL player.

And likewise, bad baseball decisions are also made off of what seems like weird stat-scouting too often. That's what seems to lead to strange decisions to give players like Reynolds(?) and Taijeron long unwarranted looks when they don't deserve it, or why you see teams make strange player decisions off of one weird half season of results and dismissing the previous player forecast built on several years of data and reports.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 12:58 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
And likewise, bad baseball decisions are also made off of what seems like weird stat-scouting too often. That's what seems to lead to strange decisions to give players like Reynolds(?) and Taijeron long unwarranted looks when they don't deserve it, or why you see teams make strange player decisions off of one weird half season of results and dismissing the previous player forecast built on several years of data and reports.


This seems to be the opposite of the issue with Cecchini. The only forecast that had him as an impact player were the ones created in 2012 ahead of the draft. Almost everything since has seen him as nothing special, and he has basically survived due to draft pedigree. Everyone wants to keep ignoring this and give him a long MLB look just cuz. Ditto Phil Evans, who for maybe one 300 PA run in AA last year looked like a guy living up to a big draft report.

I don't think what you're saying above is a rebuttal of my point about not needing long looks to every player to tell they're not good. It may actually be supportive, given that you appear to say you know Taijeron stinks after, what, 20 at bats? (I agree, for the record, just not sure why that point is included above if you're point is that rushing to judgment makes for bad personnel decisions).

I think back to when Sandy and Terry said in 2011 that Jason Bay deserved a longer look when he started off terrible because it was still a small sample. Everyone could see he was cooked. Just because it was only 50 PA of terrible hitting didn't mean we needed another 200 to confirm it. People get nuts some times with playing the "Its only a small sample!!!" Yeah, right, in a general scheme of things I can't make a mathematical case that the exact stats in this guys small sample is predictive. But does anyone doubt that after 20 at bats or whatever, Taijeron will K too much to ever be productive? We don't need to give him til whenever K rate becomes predictive to conclude that, do we?


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:23 pm 
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With Taijeron types I agree. But Jason Bay? How many people gave up on Jay Bruce after 50 ABs or so last year? Someone with a good enough history who isn't OLD needs some time to recover. Hell people gave up on Granderson just about every year here.

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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 1:33 pm 
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The Mets aren't "stat scouting." Saying that is absurd. Taijeron is up because we absolutely needed another OF. It's Taijeron over Boyd, Stewart, Kaczmarski, or whatever other fringe-y guy you wanted to see because he's the most expendable -- none of these guys are going to stick on the 40 after the season with all of the relievers who need to be protected and we won't feel too bad about DFAing Taijeron. Similar situation with Phil Evans. If we were really scouting the statline Taijeron would've gotten a shot two years ago.

Regarding Reynolds over Cecchini -- I think if a player is flirting with a .700s OPS in Vegas, there is probably a solid baseball reason. I highly doubt Sandy woke up, checked some AAA stats, and gave up on his first round pick because he was just scouting the statline.


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 Post subject: Re: Tomas Nido promoted
PostPosted: Thu Sep 14, 2017 3:39 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
And likewise, bad baseball decisions are also made off of what seems like weird stat-scouting too often. That's what seems to lead to strange decisions to give players like Reynolds(?) and Taijeron long unwarranted looks when they don't deserve it, or why you see teams make strange player decisions off of one weird half season of results and dismissing the previous player forecast built on several years of data and reports.


This seems to be the opposite of the issue with Cecchini. The only forecast that had him as an impact player were the ones created in 2012 ahead of the draft. Almost everything since has seen him as nothing special, and he has basically survived due to draft pedigree. Everyone wants to keep ignoring this and give him a long MLB look just cuz. Ditto Phil Evans, who for maybe one 300 PA run in AA last year looked like a guy living up to a big draft report.

I don't think what you're saying above is a rebuttal of my point about not needing long looks to every player to tell they're not good. It may actually be supportive, given that you appear to say you know Taijeron stinks after, what, 20 at bats? (I agree, for the record, just not sure why that point is included above if you're point is that rushing to judgment makes for bad personnel decisions).



I don't know what Jason Bay has to do with any of this so I'll ignore that part.

What I'm saying is that it seems strange who is making these player decisions and off of what recommendation or data. First with Taijeron, I have no idea why they didn't convert him to a 1Bman. He's a butcher in the OF. Second, is anyone surprised he's K'ing >40% of his PAs? No one really needed to see him here to know this was going to be the outcome. But I guess someone said "wow, look at those HR numbers!" and away we went.

As to guys like Cheech in particular, the projection on him has held steady since the beginning of time and he started to realize that potential in 15 and 16 in the upper minors showing solid results with elite BB/K rates and a lot of line drives while being one of the youngest player at each level. One lousy half season doesn't change the entire outlook for him. And having a few bad PAs after the mgr/org puts him the doghouse for no apparent reason shouldn't come as any surprise. He's got to be pretty frustrated. I would be. I'm not expecting him to be given anything on a silver platter but how about a couple of game starts..? Aren't they supposedly using this time to assess the young players they have? Does it make any sense to keep running Reyes and Cabrera out there every single day? 2B is going to be pretty up for grabs next year, no??? But no... he's a bust. ok.

And what more could be said about Reynolds that hasn't already been said. Seems like the classic case of having pictures of Jeff or Sandy in his locker. There is no logical explanation for why he keeps getting chances. And except for one blip, the numbers with him never indicated he would do anything and the small sample ML results sync with that.

Evans is another mystery. I mean, the explanation here must be that the defense is very rough bc there is a bat here. The idea that we should go back and care about what he did in 2012 and 2013 is just laughably insane. The recent results have been very good, and the video matches up with the results for him. This is a dev success that should be getting an opportunity if they actually had a clue. This just looks like TJR all over again.

And Nimmo is another that falls in line with the prevailing opinion coming off of his minor league numbers. Everyone (including most here) couldn't wait to label him as a bust bc his minor league numbers didn't blow anyone away. That's what I mean by excessive stat-scouting. There is a mad rush for some people to make judgments about players by the time they are 22. It's nuts. And now, TC is compounding the bad judgment on him by sitting him against LHed pitching when he should be facing as much LHed pitching as possible right now.

And then there are the few who are sacred cows here for whatever unknown reason. Reyes, Flores, TDA. They keep getting chance after chance no matter what they do or don't do. idk, it's easy to blame Collins bc his main function is to put the players in the best spots to succeed. I'll have to blame him for much of this but he doesn't make up the roster. Someone above him is making the roster decisions and I'm having a very difficult time seeing the logic in much of it.

[end rant]


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