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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 1:35 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Sure, maybe its a $3m payday.

Main thing is, I think they probably do decline his option, even if they would like to bring him back. That may free a spot temporarily before the rule 5 draft, but eventually you are going to need that spot either for Aoki, or another outfielder.


I think its a tender issue, not an option, right? Agree on the outcome, I just don't agree that you can sign him back to a non-roster deal.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:39 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I mean, look at them apparently ready to throw away $5M on Matt Harvey...


O Jon Snow.....

There are at least 20 other teams in this league that would easily throw $5m at Harvey in hopes he turns it around.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:45 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
You must be related to Matt Reynolds. Only explanation I have to refusing to give up the ghost on a NEGATIVE -0.2 fWAR 27 year old player


I'm not sure what you expect from a backup SS with options who can play both infield and outfield. But I don't think he gets cut because he's a SS glove and versatile and he can sit in AAA until an injury calls him up. That's someone most teams would carry on the 40.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:48 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
You must be related to Matt Reynolds. Only explanation I have to refusing to give up the ghost on a NEGATIVE -0.2 fWAR 27 year old player


I'm not sure what you expect from a backup SS with options who can play both infield and outfield. But I don't think he gets cut because he's a SS glove and versatile and he can sit in AAA until an injury calls him up. That's someone most teams would carry on the 40.



-2 DRS at SS, -1 in OF. Most teams don't have a need for a no-hit backup SS/OF. Carry 5 OF's and if you have an emergency you deal with it. Same with losing multiple players at SS. Versatility while sucking is still sucking. Guillorme for example can play 3b/2b/SS, the fact he can't play OF... who cares?

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:51 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
I mean, look at them apparently ready to throw away $5M on Matt Harvey...


O Jon Snow.....

There are at least 20 other teams in this league that would easily throw $5m at Harvey in hopes he turns it around.

A) Seriously doubt it. It's nothing but speculation as to the number of teams that would do this.
B) The Mets should do what's good for the Mets, not be driven by what they believe other teams might do. Nor should they act out of fear that Harvey could rebound elsewhere. Who cares if he resurrects his career with another team that can afford a $5M lottery ticket?

The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor. Well the best case scenario of the floor is people rationalizing that "at least it didn't cost the team the whole $5.5M!" after they release him on 3/15/18. But by that time, it'll obviously be too late to redeploy that $ "saved."

Bottom line: why should the Mets care if other teams would be willing to throw $5M+ away? The Mets should have a better insight into Harvey's potential now than anyone else.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 2:56 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor.

All I can say is, I don't think you have a future in scouting.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:03 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
cuts: McGowan, Milone, Pill, Reynolds, Aoki, Becerra, Taijeron.

add: Guillorme, Bashlor, Oswalt, Bautista

Not really sure on Oswalt, who from reports may be just another Tyler Pill. But some of those guys have been useful in the past (Matt Bowman, for example, who the Mets actually lost in rule 5).


Milone has one more arb year so you're right on him being a cut (I had him as a free agent). But I think him being gone is pretty much a given. If we count him, the roster starts at 42. You have 7 cuts, 4 adds, which puts your final number at 39 - only room for 1 free agent signing.

and you don't like Uceta? Some people are saying he's a lock to be added for the pen.


Yeah, I was starting at 43, including Reyes. But have to assume he's gone as well, and that one remaining spot needs to be used on a fifth outfielder. I'm half tempted to tell Reyes to learn to play OF, but that's probably not the best idea.

As for Uceta, he's intriguing. But suppose the Mets leave Oswalt, Uceta, and Bautista all unprotected. Imagine you are the GM of another team, looking for a guy who can help in your pen in 2018. Which guy of those three would you claim?


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:07 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Ralf wrote:
O Jon Snow.....

There are at least 20 other teams in this league that would easily throw $5m at Harvey in hopes he turns it around.

A) Seriously doubt it. It's nothing but speculation as to the number of teams that would do this.
B) The Mets should do what's good for the Mets, not be driven by what they believe other teams might do. Nor should they act out of fear that Harvey could rebound elsewhere. Who cares if he resurrects his career with another team that can afford a $5M lottery ticket?


A) There were over a dozen teams reportedly talking to Tyson Ross before he chose the Rangers last offseason. They gave him $6m PLUS $3m in incentives when he had JUST HAD his outlet surgery that October. The idea that Harvey, who is a year plus removed from the surgery wouldn't get $5m shows a lack of understanding of the pitching market imo.
B) They are. Its prudent to re-up with Harvey.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:08 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor.

All I can say is, I don't think you have a future in scouting.


:lol:

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:09 pm 
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There is no doubt that Harvey would get plucked by someone for that cost, as the Tyson Ross analogy is a great example. Josh Johnson I think still gets signed every offseason too, right?

I think the bigger points on those deals are that they are lauded in the winter and often end with either long DL stints or general ineffectiveness (or both).

I'm sure someone will sign Mat Latos again this offseason, too.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:10 pm 
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Ralf wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Ralf wrote:
O Jon Snow.....

There are at least 20 other teams in this league that would easily throw $5m at Harvey in hopes he turns it around.

A) Seriously doubt it. It's nothing but speculation as to the number of teams that would do this.
B) The Mets should do what's good for the Mets, not be driven by what they believe other teams might do. Nor should they act out of fear that Harvey could rebound elsewhere. Who cares if he resurrects his career with another team that can afford a $5M lottery ticket?


A) There were over a dozen teams reportedly talking to Tyson Ross before he chose the Rangers last offseason. They gave him $6m PLUS $3m in incentives when he had JUST HAD his outlet surgery that October. The idea that Harvey, who is a year plus removed from the surgery wouldn't get $5m shows a lack of understanding of the pitching market imo.


And the Mets weren't one of those teams bc this is a poor fit for the team's current cost structure.

And of course it's ironic that you would bring up Tyson Ross as an example in support of the notion that the Mets should allocate $5M for a lottery ticket.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:12 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor.

All I can say is, I don't think you have a future in scouting.


Pretty amusing thing to say considering the season Harvey just had and the normal prognosis for TOS patients.


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