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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:40 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
You must be related to Matt Reynolds. Only explanation I have to refusing to give up the ghost on a NEGATIVE -0.2 fWAR 27 year old player


I'm not sure what you expect from a backup SS with options who can play both infield and outfield. But I don't think he gets cut because he's a SS glove and versatile and he can sit in AAA until an injury calls him up. That's someone most teams would carry on the 40.



-2 DRS at SS, -1 in OF. Most teams don't have a need for a no-hit backup SS/OF. Carry 5 OF's and if you have an emergency you deal with it. Same with losing multiple players at SS. Versatility while sucking is still sucking. Guillorme for example can play 3b/2b/SS, the fact he can't play OF... who cares?


Lets make an agreement. If he's cut next month, I'll eat crow. If he's on the roster come rule 5 (or traded and on another team's roster), you eat crow.

Deal?

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:40 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Ralf wrote:
A) There were over a dozen teams reportedly talking to Tyson Ross before he chose the Rangers last offseason. They gave him $6m PLUS $3m in incentives when he had JUST HAD his outlet surgery that October. The idea that Harvey, who is a year plus removed from the surgery wouldn't get $5m shows a lack of understanding of the pitching market imo.


And the Mets weren't one of those teams bc this is a poor fit for the team's current cost structure.

And of course it's ironic that you would bring up Tyson Ross as an example in support of the notion that the Mets should allocate $5M for a lottery ticket.


Um, hate to break it to you but the reason the Mets didn't chase Ross was because they had 7 starters already in the pool. There was no room at the Inn. Hell, they actually gave away the 8th guy because they thought they were all good on starters.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:43 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor.

All I can say is, I don't think you have a future in scouting.


Pretty amusing thing to say considering the season Harvey just had and the normal prognosis for TOS patients.

But those aren't things scouts typically pay much attention to, are they?

Watch him pitch. He's fully recovered physically. He's pretty much the same guy they drafted in the first round in 2010. The command and results were pretty bad at times in college as well. His sophmore year he got knocked around by college hitters nearly as badly as he got knocked around this year in MLB.

Looks to me like a guy who with small tweaks and a little regaining of confidence could easily still be a solid #3 at the very least, behind deGrom and Syndegaard. If he's not clearly one of your best SP options by the end of ST, you cut him then and you are only out about $1.2M.

That small amount is not going to stop the Mets from spending anywhere else, including at SP.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:45 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:

and you don't like Uceta? Some people are saying he's a lock to be added for the pen.


Yeah, I was starting at 43, including Reyes. But have to assume he's gone as well, and that one remaining spot needs to be used on a fifth outfielder. I'm half tempted to tell Reyes to learn to play OF, but that's probably not the best idea.

As for Uceta, he's intriguing. But suppose the Mets leave Oswalt, Uceta, and Bautista all unprotected. Imagine you are the GM of another team, looking for a guy who can help in your pen in 2018. Which guy of those three would you claim?


If I was another GM and I had room, I'd take Bautista for sure. No question. Guys who touch 101 don't grow on trees and he put up good numbers for the mets in St. Lucie.

Uceta - 50/50. You may be right on him. He might not get taken.

Oswalt, I'm a hard no on him. Let another team pluck him if they want. I don't think they will.

On Reyes, he's an interesting case. He said publicly that he wants to come back and as awful as his April/May was, he can play several spots, he can be Rosario's backup and he can switch hit and still can run and steal bases. He's not a bad guy to have on a roster. I remain undecided but I wouldn't strongly object if the mets brought him back.

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 3:49 pm 
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As for the topic at hand, I'm going to go with....

Definite Non-Tender/DFA
Goeddel
Milone
Aoki
Reynolds
Taijeron

Thats only 2 open 40-man spots so....

Most likely DFA/Traded
Montero
Robles
Smoker
Cheech
Becerra

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:22 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
If I was another GM and I had room, I'd take Bautista for sure. No question. Guys who touch 101 don't grow on trees and he put up good numbers for the mets in St. Lucie.

Uceta - 50/50. You may be right on him. He might not get taken.

Oswalt, I'm a hard no on him. Let another team pluck him if they want. I don't think they will.


I was leaning Bautista as well. So it's down to Oswalt vs. Uceta. They might protect neither.

Still, Uceta was lights out in the pen in 43 innings in low A, and 10.7 innings in high A, gave up 3 runs on 6 hits in 6 innings in AA. But Oswalt was lights out as a SP in AA, 12-5, 2.28 ERA, 8.0 SO9/2.7 BB9.

I know the scouting on Oswalt says he doesn't have a high ceiling as a SP, but often guys like this, when they are that good at higher levels, can transition to the pen. The stuff often plays up in the pen. Suddenly the stuff maybe is good enough for MLB, and the guy already has some command and control.

Meanwhile, you also have to consider the risks of adding a guy too early. The Mets were high enough on Hansel Robles that they added him after a strong season in the NYPL in 2012. He then spent the next two years optioned down to the minors, where he produced mediocre results in A+ and AA, after which they have felt compelled to keep him in the big league pen since 2015. If he had more options, would they maybe have given him more time to develop as a reliever in the upper minors?

They shouldn't be making these decisions based on the numbers. If the Mets evaluators have seen Uceta and think he's the guy you have to keep, then add him. I'm just thinking Oswalt may not have big upside, but may be more likely to help a team in 2018. It's hard judging a lower level reliever vs an upper level SP.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:34 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
The idea that some think this would be a "good investment" is baffling. The upper bound for Harvey is like 5th SPer or pen arm. I don't even want to think about the floor.


acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
All I can say is, I don't think you have a future in scouting.


Pretty amusing thing to say considering the season Harvey just had and the normal prognosis for TOS patients.

But those aren't things scouts typically pay much attention to, are they?

Watch him pitch. He's fully recovered physically. He's pretty much the same guy they drafted in the first round in 2010. The command and results were pretty bad at times in college as well. His sophmore year he got knocked around by college hitters nearly as badly as he got knocked around this year in MLB.

Looks to me like a guy who with small tweaks and a little regaining of confidence could easily still be a solid #3 at the very least, behind deGrom and Syndegaard. If he's not clearly one of your best SP options by the end of ST, you cut him then and you are only out about $1.2M.

That small amount is not going to stop the Mets from spending anywhere else, including at SP.

Sure it is. We've gone thru this. It's a fine theoretical position to take, but the reality is that by the time the team would release Harvey in March, there would no longer be anywhere to redeploy those $4M "saved" on Harvey. Nope, for all intents and purposes, it's the entire $5M+ allocated to the budget.

As far as "scouting" on Harvey, this seems pretty far from "small tweaks." If you saw several of his final starts, then you would have seen a guy whose slider is flat, whose FB is 2-3 mph down from where it was when he was successful, and who can't really locate any pitch. And he's not repeating his delivery. He's not locating anything or fooling anyone into chasing anything out of the zone. His mechanics and body language are a mess. Heck, he hit is freakin knee with the baseball in mid delivery in his last start.

I would have sworn that he looked buzzed in one of his starts (maybe against the Cubs) with his nose appearing red and his eyes sort of watery. Then he goes and drops the ball in his last start in the middle of his delivery which sort of added some credence to that theory I was carrying around. And then there is just the reality of the results. Last 2 years combined (185 IP), he's 293/364/481 and .360 wOBA against with a 5.78 ERA. That's 146th out of 150. The idea of 'well, now he's healthy!' just doesn't match with what we saw on the mound. He might eventually have some success, but the TOS experience hasn't been good. I'm not breaking new ground here.

For a team with alleged aspirations of contending and a tight budget, this is not a guy to invest in. If it all hits, it's a back of the rotation profile at this stage. It's a profile you'd bring in on a $1M + incentives sort of deal based off of how horrific his results have been going on 2 seasons. And this is not to mention the distraction that it's going to be. It's just not going to be worth it at $5M the team will need to lock up. And the Tyson Ross comp doesn't really play since he didn't have 2 yrs of bad results immediately behind him.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:51 pm 
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I think its almost worse with Harvey if you think the stuff looked like it was back, because that takes away the theory/wish that with time, he'll rebuild arm strength to cover for whatever it is is currently making him one of, if not the, worst "regular" pitcher in the game.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:53 pm 
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I don't think it would hurt to put some feelers out with other teams about Harvey, just to gauge the market response a bit. If a possible return is some "toolsy" outfielder who doesn't have to go on the 40, then I'd consider it. I believe he's done, but what do I know. Maybe the guys who get paid to do this for a living think otherwise.

The Mets are a bad team right now with a bad farm system. I'd protect Bashlor and that's about it. I can't see a team taking on Uceta and his six innings of Double-A ball or Bautista, who hasn't even gotten that far yet. The sad part is that I don't think there is anyone between a handful of starters and these guys that's equally worth holding on to.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:56 pm 
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I'm sure we could get another going nowhere reliever

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 4:59 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
I'm sure we could get another going nowhere reliever

You want to wager that at least half the 6 RPs the team added will throw 40+ innings in a ML bullpen by 2019? Smith, Callahan, Bautista and even Hanhold prob get there.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:05 pm 
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Ok so their roster is currently at 40

9am after WS ends Assume Nov 3rd
Reyes becomes FA
Wright /Wheeler/Matz added to 40 man roster
DFA - Smoker/ Taijeron

Nov 5th
AsCab option picked up

Cuts prior to 18th
Reynolds
Bradford
Evans
Goeddel
McGowan

Adds
Bashlor
Guillorme
Oswalt
Uceta
Bautista

Dec 2nd NT deadline
NT Milone
NT Robles -Traded

Puts them at 38 for a SP and 2B.


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