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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:44 pm 
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Disco Ball wrote:
I don't think it would hurt to put some feelers out with other teams about Harvey, just to gauge the market response a bit. If a possible return is some "toolsy" outfielder who doesn't have to go on the 40, then I'd consider it. I believe he's done, but what do I know. Maybe the guys who get paid to do this for a living think otherwise.

The Mets are a bad team right now with a bad farm system. I'd protect Bashlor and that's about it. I can't see a team taking on Uceta and his six innings of Double-A ball or Bautista, who hasn't even gotten that far yet. The sad part is that I don't think there is anyone between a handful of starters and these guys that's equally worth holding on to.


There's a difference between the "its only $" market and teams willing to actually give you a prospect. The former always exists, if only because many teams don't treat $3-5m investments as being a big deal. The latter will be tougher, and probably non-existent.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 5:47 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
I'm sure we could get another going nowhere reliever

You want to wager that at least half the 6 RPs the team added will throw 40+ innings in a ML bullpen by 2019? Smith, Callahan, Bautista and even Hanhold prob get there.

I'm not sure that necessarily means they're not "going nowhere" relievers.

If the 2017 continued into perpetuity, I'm sure McGowan, Rhame, etc. would've kept pitching. Doesn't mean they were good.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:14 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
For a team with alleged aspirations of contending and a tight budget, this is not a guy to invest in. If it all hits, it's a back of the rotation profile at this stage. It's a profile you'd bring in on a $1M + incentives sort of deal based off of how horrific his results have been going on 2 seasons. And this is not to mention the distraction that it's going to be. It's just not going to be worth it at $5M the team will need to lock up.


First off, I doubt that contending on a tight budget is even a realistic possibility. Anything can happen, but it's not anything you can plan on, and it not something they should factor into their plans.

Second, I disagree with both premises there. I don't think it's a tight budget. I think they have tens of millions available, and probably hundreds, if there's someone they wanted to sign. And I also think they have no expectation of contending next year anyway, which is why it will be mostly unspent.

Third, this is a $1M+ incentives sort of deal. Harvey either earns a spot in the rotation, or he gets cut and makes only a bit over $1M. I think the Mets have no expectation that he will earn that spot, or that they will have to pay that additional $4M or so. If Harvey comes into ST though and shows he really deserves it, the additional revenues generated by a resurgent Harvey will pay for that $4M easily in just a handful of starts. They don't need to budget for it.

I think what the Mets do with Harvey is going to have no impact on any other spending decision. No way. They may even pretend it does, pretend they have a fixed budget, pretend they can't do something because they would go over budget. The reasons for that are that they won't be willing to admit what I just suggested above, that they have no real expectation of contending next year anyway.

And no one is saying Harvey is back to when he was sitting 97 mph and was a Cy Young candidate. But Harvey was always a million dollar arm and a ten cent head. He's still averaging over 94 mph, which puts him squarely in the middle of the top half of MLB starting pitchers, i.e. around 75th percentile. The arm strength is more than enough. Movement enough as well. Maybe a new pitching coach helps him with the mechanical and mental issues causing him to leave the fastball up, and let the slider flatten. Maybe someone convinces him to stop throwing the awful curve altogether. Maybe he can be a mid to back end guy. Maybe he sucks and gets cut. Not really enough risk there to worry about.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 6:29 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:

First off, I doubt that contending on a tight budget is even a realistic possibility. Anything can happen, but it's not anything you can plan on, and it not something they should factor into their plans.

Second, I disagree with both premises there. I don't think it's a tight budget. I think they have tens of millions available, and probably hundreds, if there's someone they wanted to sign.



If one wanted to believe this in the abstract, that's fine. However, we just witnessed the reality of a team who *had to* sell off pieces to recoup salary that went over where the opening day payroll budget was supposed to be. This is not really about what the real Wilpon capacity is. This is about what they allocate for the payroll in real terms. I don't know why anyone would deny what we absolutely know to be true about the way this org operates. We know that the FO is given an allocation to work with and Sandy tries to work within that amount and makes player decisions accordingly. Were this not the case, then Sandy and others in the FO have been complicit in perpetuating a lie about the situation.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 7:20 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
The arm strength is more than enough. Movement enough as well. Maybe a new pitching coach helps him with the mechanical and mental issues causing him to leave the fastball up, and let the slider flatten. Maybe someone convinces him to stop throwing the awful curve altogether. Maybe he can be a mid to back end guy. Maybe he sucks and gets cut. Not really enough risk there to worry about.

I looked again and thought this could be about Chris Flexen.

I don't really follow the whole premise in your post. If there really is lots more available to invest in the team, wouldn't this be the time to push chips into the pot? They've got 2 ace SPers in their primes, Cespedes who they've invested a lot in whose peak may not last too much longer, a closer in the final year of control, a terrific young corner OFer and a young SS on the rise.

If they aren't willing to support that sort of core with a good supporting cast then we'll have to conclude what, that they were satisfied with a brief 2 year run of success and are content to cede the city back to the Yankees? I understand that several players will be coming off of injuries but I find the notion that they would be willing to punt season sort of bizarre.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:03 pm 
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Doesn't say much that hasn't already been said, but MMO's take on the roster.

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2017/09/of ... ions.html/

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:35 pm 
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What I would do...
cuts: McGowan, Milone, Pill, Reynolds, Aoki, Becerra, Taijeron,
add: Bashlor, Oswalt, Bautista, Uceta
trade: Robles, Lagares, Montero,

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Mon Oct 02, 2017 9:44 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
I'm sure we could get another going nowhere reliever

You want to wager that at least half the 6 RPs the team added will throw 40+ innings in a ML bullpen by 2019? Smith, Callahan, Bautista and even Hanhold prob get there.

I'm not sure that necessarily means they're not "going nowhere" relievers.

If the 2017 continued into perpetuity, I'm sure McGowan, Rhame, etc. would've kept pitching. Doesn't mean they were good.


Exactly

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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 12:23 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I looked again and thought this could be about Chris Flexen.

I don't really follow the whole premise in your post. If there really is lots more available to invest in the team, wouldn't this be the time to push chips into the pot? They've got 2 ace SPers in their primes, Cespedes who they've invested a lot in whose peak may not last too much longer, a closer in the final year of control, a terrific young corner OFer and a young SS on the rise.

If they aren't willing to support that sort of core with a good supporting cast then we'll have to conclude what, that they were satisfied with a brief 2 year run of success and are content to cede the city back to the Yankees? I understand that several players will be coming off of injuries but I find the notion that they would be willing to punt season sort of bizarre.

Well Flexen is more 45th percentile rather than 75th percentile in velocity.

As for putting the chips in, maybe. But I see 2 SP, a closer, and two outfielders, both with some injury questions heading into next season. And I think you still need at least 2 more SP, a 3B, a 1B, and maybe a starting middle infileder.

I don't think your promising SS is an impact guy yet in 2018 at 22. And you also have a young 1B who may not be ready to help yet either. So I think if they are going to committ themselves to playing those guys, they may be targetting 2019 more than 2018. I think a contending team would perhaps still play Rosario, but send Smith to AAA.

It is also possible they could use some of these guys as trade chips, and fill some of those holes now. But it's not clear to me this is the best course, yet. And I think if they add just one or two big FA, that might be going only half way. If added at spots where you aren't blocking anyone, such as SP and 3B, it maybe wouldn't be detrimental towards them taking another step forward. But adding guys who would block some of those young players might also be sacrificing the future some just to buy another one year run.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:25 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
I looked again and thought this could be about Chris Flexen.

I don't really follow the whole premise in your post. If there really is lots more available to invest in the team, wouldn't this be the time to push chips into the pot? They've got 2 ace SPers in their primes, Cespedes who they've invested a lot in whose peak may not last too much longer, a closer in the final year of control, a terrific young corner OFer and a young SS on the rise.

If they aren't willing to support that sort of core with a good supporting cast then we'll have to conclude what, that they were satisfied with a brief 2 year run of success and are content to cede the city back to the Yankees? I understand that several players will be coming off of injuries but I find the notion that they would be willing to punt season sort of bizarre.

Well Flexen is more 45th percentile rather than 75th percentile in velocity.

As for putting the chips in, maybe. But I see 2 SP, a closer, and two outfielders, both with some injury questions heading into next season. And I think you still need at least 2 more SP, a 3B, a 1B, and maybe a starting middle infileder.

I don't think your promising SS is an impact guy yet in 2018 at 22. And you also have a young 1B who may not be ready to help yet either. So I think if they are going to committ themselves to playing those guys, they may be targetting 2019 more than 2018. I think a contending team would perhaps still play Rosario, but send Smith to AAA.

It is also possible they could use some of these guys as trade chips, and fill some of those holes now. But it's not clear to me this is the best course, yet. And I think if they add just one or two big FA, that might be going only half way. If added at spots where you aren't blocking anyone, such as SP and 3B, it maybe wouldn't be detrimental towards them taking another step forward. But adding guys who would block some of those young players might also be sacrificing the future some just to buy another one year run.

Sure sometimes the bizarre is just par for the course in Metsworld so let's be clear it is certainly possible they do punt the season. But given the core they'll return- especially two ace starters - they'd be doing everyone a big disservice by not making an effort to supplement this core with a good supporting cast. And we've just seen two teams make tremendous leaps in the standings in one year. Having two young cheap aces is still the envy of every team and provides for great variance in their results. It justifies the optimism that many still have for next year.

Juxtaposing that context with the notion that they have tons of money to spend 'if they wanted to' makes any conscious decision to put a tight limit on spending and corresponding limited effort to try and contend seem pretty hard to square. Whether or not they could make more money available then they routinely do is a debate that will never yield a satisfactory conclusion. The reality is that they will probably always be somewhere in the middle as spenders and that means they need a FO that can work accordingly. The idea that they wouldn't attempt a run now should offend most fans - in addition to the two aces, closer, star LFer, young RFer and SS, all the other top picks of this regime are just beginning to yield results.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 5:27 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
I'm sure we could get another going nowhere reliever

You want to wager that at least half the 6 RPs the team added will throw 40+ innings in a ML bullpen by 2019? Smith, Callahan, Bautista and even Hanhold prob get there.

I'm not sure that necessarily means they're not "going nowhere" relievers.

If the 2017 continued into perpetuity, I'm sure McGowan, Rhame, etc. would've kept pitching. Doesn't mean they were good.

Well clearly I am suggesting this batch will yield a few of the going somewhere variety.


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 Post subject: Re: The final roster cuts and rule 5 predictions thread - 20
PostPosted: Tue Oct 03, 2017 1:17 pm 
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Not sure why people are rushing to cut McGowan. Even if he didn't look particularly great and the control is a problem, he was missing bats and didn't look worse than, say, Rhame. If it comes down to having him or Uceta on the 40 I think McGowan stays as I don't think Uceta would get snatched.

For me the cuts are Milone, Pill, Goeddel, Taijeron, Aoki, Beccera, Cecchini, Reynolds, and (essentially) Reyes. I'm still not an Evans fan but he's earned a spot over Reynolds.

Then add Guillorme, Bashlor, Oswalt, and Bautista. That brings us up to 37 including Wheeler and Wright.

It wouldn't shock me if we added someone like Boyd if we're not bringing back Aoki. I have a hard time seeing us going into the season with four non-Beccera OF on the 40 with Conforto being a question mark.


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