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?
Poll ended at Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:35 pm
Guillorme 18%  18%  [ 4 ]
Kay 14%  14%  [ 3 ]
Lindsay 27%  27%  [ 6 ]
Dunn 41%  41%  [ 9 ]
Total votes : 22
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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:48 pm 
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Dez Lindsay ... his year was a disappointment but it wasn't disastrous.

He showed his usual strong walk rate and he flashed some power. The last 2 months of his season was excellent.

He needs to cut down on his K-rate ... but it feels like he went into a funk from the beginning of the season and went into a prolonged slump but the prospect that we were all excited about is still in there. This season feels like a hiccup. And he is going to bounce back strong next season.

On the other hand, Dunn's season was completely disastrous. Its possible, he can bounce back strong next season but there was not much positive about what he did this season.


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Sun Oct 08, 2017 11:49 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Even for admittedly horrible year, Lindsay had a 110 RC+ in the SALY and finished strong. Yes he needs to cut down on the Ks and stay on the field. But his ceiling if things come together is way higher than any in this group and probably the whole system. Just 20.


I was maybe undervaluing his strong finish. His last 23 games, from 6/1 on, he had a .947 OPS. Still struck out over 30% of PA even then. And adjusted for league, his performance was actually better than David Thomson (110 wRC+ vs 105wRC+). So I was wrong on that. It's not as bad as Savannah, but Columbia is still pretty tough on hitters, makes them look a little worse than they are.


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 9:25 am 
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Guillorme even being an every day second division player is an incredibly longshot, let alone an all star.


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 10:40 am 
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I went with Kay because we don't yet know how bad he can be.

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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 11:02 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Guillorme is arguably the most likely of these 4 to have a career that lasts several years.

I think he might also be the most likely of these to one day be an all-star.

Not that I think that's likely, but I just think Dunn and Lindsay are extreme longshots at this point. If Bashlor were in the runoff, my decision might have been harder. Or even David Thompson. I can see the case for Kay though, as it is reasonable to think he might be back at 100% by the start of next season.

But I just didn't see Dunn and Lindsay in the conversation at all here. Generally, I'm looking for a combination of tools and performance. I see that in both Guillorme and Thompson. Performance for either isn't as high as I'd like, but tools for both are pretty solid. They definitely look like big leaguers to me, and most guys don't.

But performance for both Dunn and Lindsay this year, as well as Cecchini, was more like a black hole. And for these two, it was in A+ and A ball. These are C prospects, guys.

Guillorme is a guy who I think would fit comfortably into the 9-12 range in a good system. This isn't a good system.


This is all pretty strong logic. I went with Dunn, but that's mostly wishful thinking on my part. When it comes to Dunn and Lindsay, it's been pretty tough to see where the upside is outside of draft pedigree.

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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 12:43 pm 
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The upside with Dez is that he shows advanced plate discipline and flashes above average power and plays a premium position. And he is 20 years old.

The narrative hasn't changed ... the upside potential is still there ... but i guess a slump to start the season changes a lot of minds for some


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:22 pm 
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That’s not really fair. BA notes scouts did not like his swing last week

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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:31 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
The upside with Dez is that he shows advanced plate discipline and flashes above average power and plays a premium position. And he is 20 years old.

The narrative hasn't changed ... the upside potential is still there ... but i guess a slump to start the season changes a lot of minds for some


Huge pet peeve of mine when we label somebody who walks a bunch as having "advanced plate discipline." He is a non-power hitter who has a near 30% career K rate in the lower minors. Thats not an advanced approach, thats passivity which leads to walks of course in the lower levels because the pitching isn't any good, but also is hampering his ability as a hitter overall.

Travis Taijeron routinely has had BB rates in the teens. Does anyone call his approach "advanced"?


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:34 pm 
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Luis Guillorme has an "advanced" approach. Patrick Mazeika has an "advanced" approach. These guys maintain high BB rates with a lot of contact. That says they are swinging at the right pitches and not swinging at the right pitches.

Lindsay having 45% of his plate appearances ending in balls not in play just means he's not swinging at anything.


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 1:34 pm 
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bygranddesign wrote:
The upside with Dez is that he shows advanced plate discipline and flashes above average power and plays a premium position. And he is 20 years old.

The narrative hasn't changed ... the upside potential is still there ... but i guess a slump to start the season changes a lot of minds for some



J.J. Cooper: Lindsay didn’t get great reviews from scouts. And scouts do notice where a guy hits in the order…the place Lindsay hit most? 3-hole. Second most? batting ninth. He had as much games batting seventh-eighth-ninth as he did hitting 3-4-5. Scouts didn’t like the swing.

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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:29 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
That’s not really fair. BA notes scouts did not like his swing last week

Did his swing change? I don't recall them noting that previously. It sounds like they were trying to cook up some reason why his results backed up. I think his swing looks fine.


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 Post subject: Re: #6 run-off- Guillorme/Kay/Lindsay/Dunn
PostPosted: Mon Oct 09, 2017 2:30 pm 
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So scouts liked his swing enough last year for BA to rank him 4th in a very good system

So did his swing change?

Or are people just overreacting to him struggling this season for the 1st two months


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