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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:49 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. The Mets are better off giving a bunch of marginal starting pitchers minor league deals and hoping that one of them breaks out. The team has so many holes that Lynn or Cobb realistically don't put them over the top. The line up has no contact hitters and no speed.


Of course when you have the 27th ranked farm system you don’t exactly trust management to make good use of the 2nd rounder on draft day either...


Or a first rounder...

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:24 am 
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At this point, I would take one last chance with the rotation they currently have along with Gsellman, Lugo and Montero as backups and hope for the best. I would try and sign two decent other arms to serve as AAA replacements as well.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 9:43 am 
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I would sign a Major League starter.

As last year showed us, anything can happen and will happen. Noah, Harvey, Matz and Wheeler averaged 13 starts between the 4 of them. On top of that, replacements Gsellman, Montero, Flexen and Milone were beyond brutal. It's like they got nearly nothing out 8 starting pitchers.

I'd worry about having too many starters when and if the time comes.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:36 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Otoh, I wouldn't hesitate to invest in another arm for the pen, preferably (but not necessarily) a LHer. Watson, Miley and JDLR are prob the 3 I would look at. But why is Bud Norris still available? He seems to have fallen thru the cracks unless I didnt realise that he's injured. Then, what about a minor league deal for Shae Simmons or Jake Petricka?

Petricka to the Jays on a minor league deal...


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:45 pm 
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One of my bigger concerns is that it's going to take them three months of watching Harvey put up an ERA upwards of 6.00 before they finally admit he's cooked.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 2:52 pm 
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Lance Lynn wouldn't be an upgrade over everyone outside deGrom and Thor? Am I missing something? He routinely outperforms his FIP, and has a career 3.38 ERA.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:24 pm 
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northway wrote:
One of my bigger concerns is that it's going to take them three months of watching Harvey put up an ERA upwards of 6.00 before they finally admit he's cooked.


Yeah, Harvey's gonna have a long leash, because what else do you do with him?

Would hope they recognize/react to issues with Matz/Wheeler/Gsell much quicker given options available.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 3:41 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
northway wrote:
One of my bigger concerns is that it's going to take them three months of watching Harvey put up an ERA upwards of 6.00 before they finally admit he's cooked.


Yeah, Harvey's gonna have a long leash, because what else do you do with him?




Move him to the pen for the rest of the year


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:25 pm 
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MookieWouldaBeatIt wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
northway wrote:
One of my bigger concerns is that it's going to take them three months of watching Harvey put up an ERA upwards of 6.00 before they finally admit he's cooked.


Yeah, Harvey's gonna have a long leash, because what else do you do with him?




Move him to the pen for the rest of the year


That’d be a sign of a lost season.

I’d hope 1) they’re in it and 2) if they are they don’t play with a de facto 24 man roster.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:44 pm 
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thebull wrote:
Lance Lynn wouldn't be an upgrade over everyone outside deGrom and Thor? Am I missing something? He routinely outperforms his FIP, and has a career 3.38 ERA.

I think teams looking at Lynn prob aren't looking at his career numbers. He missed the '16 season with TJ and wasn't that effective this past season. So, you have go back to 2015 and beyond to be really impressed. Had an FIP nearly 5 this year and gave up a lot of HRs, had a K/BB < 2 and doesn't throw hard. If you look just at 2017, those are #5 numbers so you have to really buy in to Lynn recovering his pre-TJ form. So based on what seemed like a ginormous ask at the beginning of the winter, it's not a big surprise that he's unsigned. If you argue extra points for durability, I'd price him about 3/36M max. It looks like he won't get that much.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 7:20 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
thebull wrote:
Lance Lynn wouldn't be an upgrade over everyone outside deGrom and Thor? Am I missing something? He routinely outperforms his FIP, and has a career 3.38 ERA.

I think teams looking at Lynn prob aren't looking at his career numbers. He missed the '16 season with TJ and wasn't that effective this past season. So, you have go back to 2015 and beyond to be really impressed. Had an FIP nearly 5 this year and gave up a lot of HRs, had a K/BB < 2 and doesn't throw hard. If you look just at 2017, those are #5 numbers so you have to really buy in to Lynn recovering his pre-TJ form. So based on what seemed like a ginormous ask at the beginning of the winter, it's not a big surprise that he's unsigned. If you argue extra points for durability, I'd price him about 3/36M max. It looks like he won't get that much.


When does the compensation pick turn into a pumpkin? Does it go all the way to the draft? I wonder if a team will sign him on June 15th? That's probably silly, but there's a certain logic to it. The team will know if it's in the playoff hunt or not, they add a rested pitcher without giving up any assets. I wonder if June-15th contracts will become a thing. For pitchers it makes some sense. (call me crazy, but I think it does).

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:08 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
northway wrote:
One of my bigger concerns is that it's going to take them three months of watching Harvey put up an ERA upwards of 6.00 before they finally admit he's cooked.


Yeah, Harvey's gonna have a long leash, because what else do you do with him?

Would hope they recognize/react to issues with Matz/Wheeler/Gsell much quicker given options available.


I should add that I was at least mildly in favor of tendering Harvey, so it's not like I'm saying they made a huge mistake here, but it is what it is.

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