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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:39 pm 
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Disco Ball wrote:
Somewhat of a lightweight site, but the poster makes a good case IMO for a quantity over quality offseason.

https://elitesportsny.com/2017/11/08/ne ... gent-fits/

Maybe I am missing something, but there doesn't seem to be that single "slam-dunk" FA pickup that will push the Mets over the top. it's going to come down to consistent performances from the Thor | Jake | Matz | Familia | Cespedes | Conforto | Rosario core with contributions coming in from next tier at various portions throughout the season.

That next tier includes Ramos, Lugo, Wilmer or TJR, Blevins, Lagares and at least one of the catchers. Supplement that group with a Gomez or a McGee or a CC on a short deal.

The more I learn about Dee Gordon, the less enthusiastic I am about him donning a Met uni. I also have serious doubts about the former Dark Knight.

ON EDIT: I do think Bruce is worth pursuing again, especially if Conforto starts the year on the DL.


I like Bruce. I'm not as high on Dee Gordan or Walker and I'd consider Howie Kendrick as a super-sub, but I'd rather get a lefty. Nobody really stands out as a perfect fit but Bruce comes close, lefty bat and they really need an OF. I like Cozart but I don't know if they can afford him.

I think they need a starting pitcher too just to buffer any injury/bad outings by Harvey/Matz/Lugo/Gsellman.

I think they have no choice to go quantity over quality with 3 holes to fill, maybe 4 if you count the pen.

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I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 4:54 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:

It's still Madoff. They lost about 600-700 million and they had to refinance the team and SNY and now they've got gonzo debt, probably debt that the MLB bylaws don't allow.

.

How do you figure that? I thought the settlement was something like $60M when all was said and done.




Maybe the actual number was closer to 460 million (400 loss plus 60 penalty), but my 600-700 was just an estimate. If I'd thought about it I might have said 500-600.


Quote:
As part of the Wilpons’ settlement with the trustee, the sides stipulated that the Wilpons lost $178 million in certain Madoff funds, while making $162 million from other funds.

The Wilpons can deduct the 56.988 cents per dollar from their funds with principal losses from the $162 million eventually owed to the trustee.

Here’s the math:

One hundred and sixty-two million owed, minus 56.988 percent of $178 million lost, yields the actual payback to the trustee.

So the Wilpon family, businesses and charities right now would owe the trustee $60,561,360 -- divided into two installments, and payable in 2016 and 2017.

That obligation may further decrease as the trustee recovers more funds for all victims.


http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/mets/ ... n-to-60-6m


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 5:04 pm 
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All the “Madoff losses” didn’t stop Jeff from investing 20mil in the Overwatch League. I’m sure it’s a combo of Wilpon cheapness and Sandy convincing them the Mets can win without a huge payroll


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:35 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

Quote:
As part of the Wilpons’ settlement with the trustee, the sides stipulated that the Wilpons lost $178 million in certain Madoff funds, while making $162 million from other funds.

The Wilpons can deduct the 56.988 cents per dollar from their funds with principal losses from the $162 million eventually owed to the trustee.

Here’s the math:

One hundred and sixty-two million owed, minus 56.988 percent of $178 million lost, yields the actual payback to the trustee.

So the Wilpon family, businesses and charities right now would owe the trustee $60,561,360 -- divided into two installments, and payable in 2016 and 2017.

That obligation may further decrease as the trustee recovers more funds for all victims.


http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/mets/ ... n-to-60-6m


That math ignores the fact that 400 million dollars they had in investments went to zero over night.

Think about that. Their financial cushion went to zero, which is why they needed to borrow 25 million from MLB which they didn't pay back in the allowable 12 months, 50 million from BofA and another 120 million in 20 million shares of the team.

There's difference between someone who owns a $300K house, with a $180K mortgage and $150K in the bank and he finds out he needs to repair his roof, and a guy with a $300K house, a $180 K mortgage, 0 money in the bank a $30K penalty AND he needs to repair his roof. Those two scenarios are vastly different.

You can say the penalty was only $30K but that doesn't convey the entire picture.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:41 pm 
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Steve The Original wrote:
All the “Madoff losses” didn’t stop Jeff from investing 20mil in the Overwatch League. I’m sure it’s a combo of Wilpon cheapness and Sandy convincing them the Mets can win without a huge payroll


I don't want to beat a dead horse, but he restructured the Mets and SNY debt, so he has cash now. The $460 million loss probably lead to taking out (ballpark guess) $600-$700 million in new debt and I think there's a plan to buyback some of those 20 million dollar shares.

It's not just cheapness, they have more debt and less savings, that makes it harder to spend, but it's also attendance is lower than they projected, and if you want to throw some cheapness in there too - that's fine, but the increase in debt and lower attendance are factors. That's just math.

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"When I give food to the poor, they call me a saint. When I ask why they are poor, they call me a communist." - Dom Hélder Câmara

I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:49 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:

Quote:
As part of the Wilpons’ settlement with the trustee, the sides stipulated that the Wilpons lost $178 million in certain Madoff funds, while making $162 million from other funds.

The Wilpons can deduct the 56.988 cents per dollar from their funds with principal losses from the $162 million eventually owed to the trustee.

Here’s the math:

One hundred and sixty-two million owed, minus 56.988 percent of $178 million lost, yields the actual payback to the trustee.

So the Wilpon family, businesses and charities right now would owe the trustee $60,561,360 -- divided into two installments, and payable in 2016 and 2017.

That obligation may further decrease as the trustee recovers more funds for all victims.


http://www.espn.com/blog/new-york/mets/ ... n-to-60-6m


That math ignores the fact that 400 million dollars they had in investments went to zero over night.

Think about that. Their financial cushion went to zero, which is why they needed to borrow 25 million from MLB which they didn't pay back in the allowable 12 months, 50 million from BofA and another 120 million in 20 million shares of the team.

There's difference between someone who owns a $300K house, with a $180K mortgage and $150K in the bank and he finds out he needs to repair his roof, and a guy with a $300K house, a $180 K mortgage, 0 money in the bank a $30K penalty AND he needs to repair his roof. Those two scenarios are vastly different.

You can say the penalty was only $30K but that doesn't convey the entire picture.

I think you overcomplicated it. The claim is that they had accounts in which they lost $178M and other accounts in which they had earned and I think withdrew $162M. So the end result is that they had put back the $162M they took out but they were allowed to reduce that amount they had to repay by 57% of the losses they suffered. That was evidently the final amount recovered by most who lost funds, 57%.

Like a lot of investors, there were offsets due to moneys withdrawn over the years. I haven't seen the amounts you're suggesting anywhere, tho.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 6:54 pm 
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Metsblog has a piece up saying that the Mets might be open to dealing Rosario and Smith.

Why in the world would the Mets consider anybody but Rosario at SS??


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:13 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Metsblog has a piece up saying that the Mets might be open to dealing Rosario and Smith.

Why in the world would the Mets consider anybody but Rosario at SS??


That piece is "Full Cerrone." I wouldn't pay much attention.

I liked the part about Jason Kipnis' front-loaded contract with *only* 2/31 left on it. Boy, wonder what the expensive part of the contract was then, if thats the cheaper end!!!


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:19 pm 
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Trading either of them would be a change in the process. If they were trading them it should have been while tearing up the minors.

As far as Bruce, I like him but Ido t see him aging well baseball wise. I worry the same with Cain.

Cozart is a bit older than I thought...

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 7:21 pm 
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As I've posted before, I think there's near zero chance that Bruce signs here. But it would be nice to have at least one corner outfielder who gives AF to root for so I'm all for it.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:30 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
Metsblog has a piece up saying that the Mets might be open to dealing Rosario and Smith.

Why in the world would the Mets consider anybody but Rosario at SS??


That piece is "Full Cerrone." I wouldn't pay much attention.

I liked the part about Jason Kipnis' front-loaded contract with *only* 2/31 left on it. Boy, wonder what the expensive part of the contract was then, if thats the cheaper end!!!


Yea, that was the type of read that confirms he has no real sources.

There are only a couple of shortstops that I would take over Rosario next season, but they already bat in the middle of lineups for playoff teams.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Nov 08, 2017 8:36 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

I think you overcomplicated it. The claim is that they had accounts in which they lost $178M and other accounts in which they had earned and I think withdrew $162M. So the end result is that they had put back the $162M they took out but they were allowed to reduce that amount they had to repay by 57% of the losses they suffered. That was evidently the final amount recovered by most who lost funds, 57%.

Like a lot of investors, there were offsets due to moneys withdrawn over the years. I haven't seen the amounts you're suggesting anywhere, tho.


There's net loses and daily loses. Remember all those people who bought a house, then housing prices went up and they refinanced, then housing prices went down and they had mortgages for more money than their houses were worth?

Lets take the 178 million loss - Wilpons invest 178 million into madoff, their money grows by ponzi-profits. They withdraw some of that money to buy Doubleday's share and they withdraw money for other reasons, other investments, to set up SNY.

Come 2008, they've withdrawn 340 million - to pay for the various stuff above. They made 162 million profit by withdrawing 340 off their 178 million dollar investment, and on top of that, there's the money in the account - which grew steadily until 2008 - some 400 million to 700 million in the account.

That's how they can lose 400 plus million in one day, off a 178 million dollar investment, but if you go back to when the investment was made, it was a 178 million dollar loss.

They also, initially faced a 1 billion dollar lawsuit cause Irving Picard said they were legally liable. They got a favorable lawsuit cause they were only held accountable for the 162 profit they withdrew and no "should have known/shouldn't have referred others" liability, and they were rewarded for their initial 178 million dollar investment loss. But they still had a daily net worth drop of 400 plus million, and on top of that a 60 million dollar penalty.

That's the gist of it anyway. It's hard to get rock solid details from news reports cause it's a person's private finance. But nobody offers to sell 10 shares at 20 million a piece (I think they only sold 6), and discusses selling 49% of the team to a hedge fund manager just over a 60 million dollar loss.

Look at it this way, if you have 100,000 in long term investments that you bought for 20,000 but the value went up over the years. Then the value goes to zero overnight - do you feel like you lost 20,000 or 100,000? Most people would feel like they lost 100K, cause that's how they gauge their wealth, off current evaluation. That said, when you claim a capital gains loss on your tax return, your capital gains loss is only $20,000.

That's why the madoff effect will last several more years. The capital gains loss may have been 178 and the penalty 60, but to the Wilpons, their net worth dropped much more than that on one day and their 162 millions taken in profit had already been spent, and as a result, they had to restructure the debt on both the team and SNY and sell the 20 million dollar shares that they might want to buy back next year - or 2019/2020, I don't remember exactly.

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I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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