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The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
http://www.nyfuturestars.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=44732
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Author:  HeyNowHK [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:27 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.

Author:  slugox [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:39 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

HeyNowHK wrote:
Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.


This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.

Author:  HeyNowHK [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:19 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

slugox wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Yeah, I think broadly, they will plan to have the pen cover 3.5 innings per game. That accumulates to approx 550 (or more) innings. You need to have about 10 competent RPers to make that work. So that means bullpen depth has to be the key to make it work.


This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.

Well, I do think that their top 50 or so prospects are dominated by RPs at the moment, so the plan (if this really is their thinking) seems to be underway.

Anyway it's not a huge revelation to have a strong pen. I think that was always true. The increasing belief that SPers are less effective the deeper they go into the game is also not an enormous revelation either, but data on this is driving the narrative. But again, this is a generalization of the data. If a team had 3 or 4 SPers who were capable of throwing 7+ innings per start effectively, then that reduces the pen load. It's not rocket science and as RP salaries increase due the demand, the financial implications of this strategy will even out.

Author:  MarkJohnson>You [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 11:57 am ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

dragonfly wrote:

This is partly what set up the Mets 2017 for failure. We were in mid-May and starters were averaging 5 innings a game and the bullpen was shot. You just can't expect 8 guys (or spots, since the guys will rotate in and out) to cover 600-650 innings.


You have to appreciate the irony of this "strategy" morphing from "Terry is an idiot and overworks his guys" to "Analytics-driven new wave thinking", though, right?? I do.

The big thing that no one is mentioning though is, even if they shore up the front end, who is confident in Ramos/Familia at the back end? The bullpenning idea sort of falls apart when the two stoppers- which the whole plan is just designed to get to - throw a million and a half pitches each outing. We don't exactly have Kenly Jansen ready to throw 10 cutters and say "g'nite" even if HanPauChasJosh RobSewBradSmoker get us there.

Author:  LTKfRGM [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 3:16 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

slugox wrote:

This makes perfect sense. However, my objection is if they go all in and allocate the majority of their resources on pitching, the lineup is still going to be bad and it won't make enough of a difference. Unless the goal is to be a .500 team. Then, sure.


Kind of like putting lipstick on a pig. Don't fix the lineup, don't fix the starting pitching, just fix the bullpen, because . . . the Royals had a good bullpen? They also had good starters and a good lineup.

The Mets starters: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/nl

Relief pitchers: http://www.espn.com/mlb/stats/team/_/st ... /league/nl

The starters were a little bit worse.

Author:  hotlyds87 [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 5:22 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

We had some really bad injury luck with the pitching last year. I think shoring up the bullpen could go a long way. However, the lineup is guaranteed right now to be significantly worse than last year, and with Conforto a question mark it could be really really bad. We need a middle of the order bat pretty badly.

Author:  HeyNowHK [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 6:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

Slow times...

Author:  slugox [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 7:07 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

hotlyds87 wrote:
We had some really bad injury luck with the pitching last year. I think shoring up the bullpen could go a long way. However, the lineup is guaranteed right now to be significantly worse than last year, and with Conforto a question mark it could be really really bad. We need a middle of the order bat pretty badly.


Coupled with a near the middle of the order bat.

Author:  LTKfRGM [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:00 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

I think Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman, Lugo, Harvey all have sufficient injury and other questionmarks that signing a starter is the top priority. Maybe 1 or 2 of those guys ends up helping the pen and that's fine.

and the roster needs at least some beefing up. How they do everything with a budget of 30 million (or less) . . . just gotta wait and see Sandy to his magic. But I wouldn't put the pen first or spend the most there. imho.

Author:  Disco Ball [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

is Sandy anywhere on record as saying that he has $30MM to spend this offseason? Or is this just "fake news?"

Author:  LTKfRGM [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:43 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

Disco Ball wrote:
is Sandy anywhere on record as saying that he has $30MM to spend this offseason? Or is this just "fake news?"


Sandy's said that payroll will be cut. (from 156 million last year).

That suggests 30 might be about the ceiling and 20-25 is also possible. Various writers have thrown out the 30 number. I wouldn't call that fake news, I'd call it an educated guess, perhaps an optimistic educated guess.

When you add up the arb, the 10 or so rookie contracts and the confirmed contracts it comes to about 120 right now (Cots says 120.6, I've seen people estimate as high as 123). 30 is right at the ceiling that still cuts salary and might be pushing it. 25 might be a better guess.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/ ... 5I/pubhtml

They could sign players to a 2 year deals, 6 million in 2018, 15 million in 2019 or with buyouts or player optouts and work around that way, but that only goes so far before 2019 is full. I think it's going to be tight fit this off season with some bargain hunting.

Author:  dragonfly [ Fri Nov 10, 2017 10:53 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread

Doesn't seem like much help is coming this winter.

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