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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 11:52 am 
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Okay, editing to sub out Nunez for Frazier...

How about an opt-out deal for a rotation piece to get a guy on board for 2018?

Cobb or Lynn: 3 years, $45M with 1st year opt out.= (leaning toward Cobb).
Frazier: 2 years, $17M.
Watson: 2 years, $15M ($7M/$8M).
Wheeler and Lagares for a decent non-roster OF for the system (no idea who).

I've seen we're at about $135M right now? This adds about $22M. Maybe they can convince the Wilpons to go over budget citing the Wright insurance money, and the hope that Cobb/Lynn will opt out.

Lineup
Conforto CF (Nimmo in April)
Cabrera 2B
Cespedes LF
Bruce RF
Frazier 3B
Gonzalez 1B
d'Arnaud C
Rosario SS

Bench
Nimmo OF (OF trade return/MiL in April)
Plawecki C/1B
Flores IF
Reyes IF/OF
Guillorme/Cheech IF

Rotation
deGrom
Syndergaard
Cobb/Lynn
Matz
Harvey

Bullpen
Familia
Swarzak
Blevins
Ramos
Watson
Sewald
Lugo, Robles, Callahan, Rhame, etc.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:48 pm 
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When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. The Mets are better off giving a bunch of marginal starting pitchers minor league deals and hoping that one of them breaks out. The team has so many holes that Lynn or Cobb realistically don't put them over the top. The line up has no contact hitters and no speed.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:13 am 
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When you have the #27th rank farm system and mid-market budget it is time to sell the team and fire the management. I'd rather bomb and get higher picks then be shoot for mediocre.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 9:50 am 
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piazzafan wrote:
When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb.


Agree. Maybe for Arrieta, but even he saw a velocity drop last year which might make him too risky. Cobb and Lynn though look like guys who should have taken the qualifying offer.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:31 am 
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90% of our success is based on our starting pitching. I'm sure Sandy would willingly sacrifice a 2nd rounder to save his bacon.


8)

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:48 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb.


Agree. Maybe for Arrieta, but even he saw a velocity drop last year which might make him too risky. Cobb and Lynn though look like guys who should have taken the qualifying offer.


So does Greg Holland


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 10:57 am 
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piazzafan wrote:
When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb. The Mets are better off giving a bunch of marginal starting pitchers minor league deals and hoping that one of them breaks out. The team has so many holes that Lynn or Cobb realistically don't put them over the top. The line up has no contact hitters and no speed.


Of course when you have the 27th ranked farm system you don’t exactly trust management to make good use of the 2nd rounder on draft day either...


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 11:59 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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Location: NYC
acerimusdux wrote:
piazzafan wrote:
When you have the #27 ranked farm system in all of baseball you can't give away a second round pick to sign Lance Lynn or Alex Cobb.


Agree. Maybe for Arrieta, but even he saw a velocity drop last year which might make him too risky. Cobb and Lynn though look like guys who should have taken the qualifying offer.

Have no idea why the Mets would entertain signing Arrieta or Darvish for an enormous contract when they seem to have little interest in extending their own aces.

And I don't see Lynn or Cobb as worth the gamble plus 2nd rounder, given both are not really more than durable #4s. I'm not sure either is any better than the Lugo/Gsell/Matz group. I just don't really see the value in adding another backend SPer. To me, the 5 or 6 guys we have here are just as likely to produce 2 or 3 solid seasons worth of pitching.

Otoh, I wouldn't hesitate to invest in another arm for the pen, preferably (but not necessarily) a LHer. Watson, Miley and JDLR are prob the 3 I would look at. But why is Bud Norris still available? He seems to have fallen thru the cracks unless I didnt realise that he's injured. Then, what about a minor league deal for Shae Simmons or Jake Petricka?

It kinda feels like they feel burnt by the Bastardo signing and are just afraid to dip their toe back in the water again for another LHer that might cost them $10M+ like Watson. So go out and make a freakin trade for a pre-arb LHer!


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:32 pm 
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I seriously doubt the Mets will be in on any kind of starting impact pitcher at this point. They will more than likely sign an arm or two for AAA and just hope in a miracle that the current rotation can remain healthy and perform well and that a trio of Gsellman, Lugo and Montero can fill in when needs be with whomever else they signed on minor league deals.

And thats really all they can do. They can't move Harvey to the bullpen or Matz. Wheeler may be the most logical due to his very low innings numbers during starts but I imagine they would like to see what a full year back would do first.

This entire season is once again on their rotation. If it does well, that 80-82 win prediction can be as high as the low 90's. If catastrophe hits like it did last year well.........you are looking at at least another 4-5 straight losing seasons and a major rebuild.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:45 pm 
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When you have the 27th ranked farm system is the perfect time to forgo a 2nd rounder to sign a legit major league contributor to a multi-year deal, as your farm is not going to be producing guys to help you for quite some time.

If you're trying to contend, of course. If not, sure, watch those draft picks grow.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:49 pm 
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Legend of NYFS

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Location: NYC
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
When you have the 27th ranked farm system is the perfect time to forgo a 2nd rounder to sign a legit major league contributor to a multi-year deal, as your farm is not going to be producing guys to help you for quite some time.

If you're trying to contend, of course. If not, sure, watch those draft picks grow.

Agree with this if talking about someone who is going to be a difference maker. I don't really care about the 2nd rd pick. I just struggle to see any separation between a Cobb or Lynn and Gsell, Matz, or Lugo. For Moustakos, I def would have given up the 2nd rounder.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2018 "What Would YOU Do" Offseason Thread
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:01 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
When you have the 27th ranked farm system is the perfect time to forgo a 2nd rounder to sign a legit major league contributor to a multi-year deal, as your farm is not going to be producing guys to help you for quite some time.

If you're trying to contend, of course. If not, sure, watch those draft picks grow.

Agree with this if talking about someone who is going to be a difference maker. I don't really care about the 2nd rd pick. I just struggle to see any separation between a Cobb or Lynn and Gsell, Matz, or Lugo. For Moustakos, I def would have given up the 2nd rounder.


Well, pretty substantial difference in 2017 between those guys. Lugo is the one who looked OK but his arm will explode at some point this year given he has a frayed UCL and relies on, essentially, the snap of his elbow to survive.

I mean, neither qualified, but have to believe Matz and Gsellman (along with Harvey and Wheeler) were among the worst starters in all of baseball last year. So "difference maker" is all relative.

I know hope spring eternal and all, but I think we're forgetting how terrible the non-Degrom/Syndergaard guys were last year. It wasn't just injury. It was complete ineffectiveness to the point of non-competitiveness on a night-in, night-out basis 3 out of 5 nights. Thats how you go 70-92 with a good offense, I guess.


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