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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:22 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
dragonfly wrote:
If the Astros win the WS the season after the Cubs win, will full out tanks become more popular in baseball?


We're already there. Look at what the Padres and White Sox are trying to do. To a degree the Phillies as well.


To me that’s not quite enough teams to convince me it’s going to catch on.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:40 am 
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dragonfly wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:
dragonfly wrote:
If the Astros win the WS the season after the Cubs win, will full out tanks become more popular in baseball?


We're already there. Look at what the Padres and White Sox are trying to do. To a degree the Phillies as well.


To me that’s not quite enough teams to convince me it’s going to catch on.


I mean there's only so many teams that 'can' strip tank at once given contracts already on the books for some teams (say Detroit last year) and where other teams are in their development curve (i.e. Houston and the Cubs won't be tanking again for the next five years) plus the handful of teams that'll literally never tank - Yankees, Dodgers, Boston. Detroit's another team that's already started the tear down process.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:01 am 
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This has to be the worst pitched WS game of all time.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:02 am 
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dragonfly wrote:
This has to be the worst pitcher WS game of all time.


It's rapidly approaching the 15-14 Blue Jays-Phillies game.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:03 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
dragonfly wrote:
This has to be the worst pitcher WS game of all time.


It's rapidly approaching the 15-14 Blue Jays-Phillies game.


It’s like watching 2 teams with the 2017 Mets pitching staff go at it.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:33 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
dragonfly wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:

We're already there. Look at what the Padres and White Sox are trying to do. To a degree the Phillies as well.


To me that’s not quite enough teams to convince me it’s going to catch on.


I mean there's only so many teams that 'can' strip tank at once given contracts already on the books for some teams (say Detroit last year) and where other teams are in their development curve (i.e. Houston and the Cubs won't be tanking again for the next five years) plus the handful of teams that'll literally never tank - Yankees, Dodgers, Boston. Detroit's another team that's already started the tear down process.


I think the Astros model is a strong selling point on tanking, being the worst team in baseball for 2-3 years, building up crazy tallent. That's part of the reason baseball smoothed out the draft slot amounts for the top few picks to even things out a bit.

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and, I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018).


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:31 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
I think the Astros model is a strong selling point on tanking, being the worst team in baseball for 2-3 years, building up crazy tallent. That's part of the reason baseball smoothed out the draft slot amounts for the top few picks to even things out a bit.


I'd actually argue the contrary, considering how few of their players came by way of the draft (6, I believe), which is really the only place that tanking truly helps you. I suppose you could argue that the Astros' tanking made their investment in non-Major League scouting possible, but you pull your scouts off of big league games without losing 100 games and being a total tire fire if you knew you were rebuilding.

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:46 am 
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northway wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
I think the Astros model is a strong selling point on tanking, being the worst team in baseball for 2-3 years, building up crazy tallent. That's part of the reason baseball smoothed out the draft slot amounts for the top few picks to even things out a bit.


I'd actually argue the contrary, considering how few of their players came by way of the draft (6, I believe), which is really the only place that tanking truly helps you. I suppose you could argue that the Astros' tanking made their investment in non-Major League scouting possible, but you pull your scouts off of big league games without losing 100 games and being a total tire fire if you knew you were rebuilding.


Yeah, I mean, fun narrative and all, but Springer was picked in the same area of the draft as Brandon Nimmo and Corey Spangenburg, Correa was a bonus-pool saving choice at #1, Appel was a disaster pick at #1, Brady Aiken was WORSE, but they were saved by not signing him and getting Bregman the next year.

The "total tank" strategy could've very easily yielded 2 of 3 total busts with the only hit being someone who was considered more like the 5th or 6th best player in his draft.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:52 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
northway wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
I think the Astros model is a strong selling point on tanking, being the worst team in baseball for 2-3 years, building up crazy tallent. That's part of the reason baseball smoothed out the draft slot amounts for the top few picks to even things out a bit.


I'd actually argue the contrary, considering how few of their players came by way of the draft (6, I believe), which is really the only place that tanking truly helps you. I suppose you could argue that the Astros' tanking made their investment in non-Major League scouting possible, but you pull your scouts off of big league games without losing 100 games and being a total tire fire if you knew you were rebuilding.


Yeah, I mean, fun narrative and all, but Springer was picked in the same area of the draft as Brandon Nimmo and Corey Spangenburg, Correa was a bonus-pool saving choice at #1, Appel was a disaster pick at #1, Brady Aiken was WORSE, but they were saved by not signing him and getting Bregman the next year.

The "total tank" strategy could've very easily yielded 2 of 3 total busts with the only hit being someone who was considered more like the 5th or 6th best player in his draft.


Appel wasn't even a good pick on paper. Dude was projected as a mid-rotation starter yet somehow Boras' holdout magic got him picked first overall.

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 10:32 am 
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So now it seems like "tank" isn't quite how Houston got where they are.

Who has actually had successful tanks then? The Cubs?

So maybe completely tanking isn't the right approach to a re-build. Look at the Yankees.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 11:21 am 
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as to the original topic of the thread - Chase Utley

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:11 pm 
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northway wrote:

Appel wasn't even a good pick on paper. Dude was projected as a mid-rotation starter yet somehow Boras' holdout magic got him picked first overall.


It actually got him picked 8th overall (and people thought the Astros were trying to save money by choosing Correa over him) before the Astros thought they were getting one over on ol' Scott by taking him the next year at 1.1 anyway.

Again, all it shows it that the MLB draft is the one where higher draft position has the least known effect (other than being able to game bonus pool allotments better, but again, that effect is hurt by the uncertainty in what you're paying for anyway).

The Nationals were terrible at absolutely the exact right moment. The Astros, most would argue, were terrible at absolutely the wrong moment. We are 1 win away from the Astros, despite that, using the "fruits" of their tank to win a championship while the Nats, with perpetually higher payrolls on top of their great fortune at being at 1.1 at the right moment, still unable to win a single playoff series.

Forming an organizational plan around getting higher drafts is a terrible way to run a baseball franchise.


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