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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:13 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Forming an organizational plan around getting higher drafts is a terrible way to run a baseball franchise.


I agree but that's not what 75% of the folks around here were saying all season.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 12:14 pm 
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MookieWouldaBeatIt wrote:
as to the original topic of the thread - Chase Utley


Since when does any thread on here stay to the original topic?

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 1:48 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Forming an organizational plan around getting higher drafts is a terrible way to run a baseball franchise.


I agree but that's not what 75% of the folks around here were saying all season.


This is true

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 2:40 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
dragonfly wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Forming an organizational plan around getting higher drafts is a terrible way to run a baseball franchise.


I agree but that's not what 75% of the folks around here were saying all season.


This is true


I personally see a distinction between recognizing you have a bad team and getting what you can for expendable roster pieces and intentionally tanking to lose as many games as possible. It's important for teams to recognize that 79 wins gets them just as far as 70, and even attendance is unlikely to differ much between the former and the latter. I'm pretty anti-tank, but I'm totally in favor of recognizing a bad team for what it is.

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:13 pm 
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The other thing I hope this postseason changes is the obsessive bullpenization of baseball. This is the second year in a row neither bullpen can get anyone out by the end of the WS cause of the liberal overuse throughout the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:19 pm 
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The other thing I hope this postseason changes is the obsessive bullpenization of baseball. This is the second year in a row neither bullpen can get anyone out by the end of the WS cause of the liberal overuse throughout the season.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 3:29 pm 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
The other thing I hope this postseason changes is the obsessive bullpenization of baseball. This is the second year in a row neither bullpen can get anyone out by the end of the WS cause of the liberal overuse throughout the season.

I don't know if it's overuse during the season or just during the playoffs. Yeah, I think we're seeing that there is a price to pay for riding the same 2 or 3 RPers game after game. But in the big pix, after 7 months of baseball, it is a war of attrition to a degree. I mean, while the Yankee staff and pen were awesome almost all the way thru their playoff run, even they were starting to show some cracks by the end. It's definitely a balancing act, and Roberts in particular is paying the price for his quick hooks and the use of 6 and 7 arms every game.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:04 pm 
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northway wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
I think the Astros model is a strong selling point on tanking, being the worst team in baseball for 2-3 years, building up crazy tallent. That's part of the reason baseball smoothed out the draft slot amounts for the top few picks to even things out a bit.


I'd actually argue the contrary, considering how few of their players came by way of the draft (6, I believe), which is really the only place that tanking truly helps you. I suppose you could argue that the Astros' tanking made their investment in non-Major League scouting possible, but you pull your scouts off of big league games without losing 100 games and being a total tire fire if you knew you were rebuilding.


Tanking isn't just the draft. It's more money to spend on the international market and selling vets for prospects and (for a time) not adding any big contracts.

If the mets had gone full tank, sold David Wright, Sold Reyes (even though he got injured before the deadline and maybe they don't get that much), this team would arguably be improved without 20 million tied up into David Wright - not to mention any prospects he was traded for.

If the mets had gone full tank, they'd have traded Angel Pagan following the 2010 season when he had 2 years left, not after 2011 and a down year with 1 year left. They'd have gotten more in return that way.

The Astros - when their #1 overall picks started

2012: Carlos Correa - great pick.
2013: Mark Appel - disappointing but they flipped for Ken Giles, a good relief pitcher with years of control.
2014: #1 pick flipped to 2015, unsigned.
2015: #2 - Alex Bregman, looks pretty darn good.
2015: #5 Kyle Tucker, hasn't seen majors but looks pretty good so far. BA had him at #19 last year and he's done nothing to take away from that.

So, they had #1 picks, 2102-2014 and #5 2015, a 4 year span.

Correa - looks really good.
Ken Giles - setup man years of control
Bregman - early but looks darn good
Kyle Tucker - top 20 prospect.

Also, if you look at Houston's 2012 draft, the year they got Correa for 4.8 in a 7.2 million slot, saving 2.4 million for later rounds.

Counting Correa they have 9 players from their 2012 draft who have seen majors. I didn't check ever team but I checked 8 or 10 teams and no other team had that many. How much they gained from that 2.4 million is hard to say, I didn't see a list of their signing bonuses, but it didn't hurt.

Lance McCullers who won game 3 o the world series and has been a respectible major league starter - signed overslot for 2.5 million in the Correa year. Tanking helped them get him.

Rio Ruiz was signed for 1.85 million, also during the Correa year. He was one of the two main prospects in the Evan Gattis trade.

So, just looking at what the #1 pick and extra money to spend got them.

2012: Correa, McCullers, Gattis, and possibly a couple more. One draft - that ain't bad.

2013, not as good. 2014 they flipped the first to 2015, but the jury's still out on those years too and Bregman could be legit and Kyle Tucker taken at #5 too.

I don't see how anyone can look at those kinds of results and not see a brilliant turnaround by tank. Now, granted, it wasn't just the tank, they made some other good moves as well, but the Tank helped and the Astros are a key reason why MLB re-wrote the draft rules to cut down on the money teams get for the #1 overall pick.

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 4:17 pm 
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northway wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
dragonfly wrote:

I agree but that's not what 75% of the folks around here were saying all season.


This is true


I personally see a distinction between recognizing you have a bad team and getting what you can for expendable roster pieces and intentionally tanking to lose as many games as possible. It's important for teams to recognize that 79 wins gets them just as far as 70, and even attendance is unlikely to differ much between the former and the latter. I'm pretty anti-tank, but I'm totally in favor of recognizing a bad team for what it is.


Not to keep on this subject, but because the Astros tank helped them get to the series, I'll post one more.

Recognizing that you have a bad team and that you don't have the money to spend to make it good - selling vets makes sense - I agree 100%.

The thing is, there's not that much difference in practice between selling vets and tanking. Selling enough vets and playing enough youngsters (the Nitey dream) can give you a 55 win team. A lot depends on who the youngsters are. The Young Padres played respectably this year with virtually all youngsters, so it's not automatic but selling enough vets can turn a team into a last overall.

OK, I'll stop now. Sorry.

- - -

Even with last night's pinball game, I still think it's a great series. Kershaw still can't pitch in the playoffs. :D Enjoying the series so far. Go Astros!!!

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I've always loved a good underdog story. Go Mets (2018). I know an underdog when I see one.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:27 pm 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
The other thing I hope this postseason changes is the obsessive bullpenization of baseball. This is the second year in a row neither bullpen can get anyone out by the end of the WS cause of the liberal overuse throughout the season.


It is interesting how the switch has flipped in the WS the last 2 years, where the process for actually getting there has pretty much been the opposite, right?

The whole Yankee/Houston series was only really competitive because of the Astros' bullpen failures and Yankee bullpen dominance, right? And obviously the Dodgers have rode their bullpen throughout the playoffs ...until Game 2.

Last year it was the Indians sort of covering for other faults through an absolutely dominating last 12-15 outs throughout the playoffs with their "Big 3".

But yeah, interesting how thats obviously so far from what has happened in the World Series. Hmmm.


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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:53 pm 
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Short series, more options with the pen with a short rotation...? Willingness to take risk of later versus the now opportunities...?

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 Post subject: Re: Still need a reason to root for the Astros over the Dodg
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:31 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:
The other thing I hope this postseason changes is the obsessive bullpenization of baseball. This is the second year in a row neither bullpen can get anyone out by the end of the WS cause of the liberal overuse throughout the season.

I don't know if it's overuse during the season or just during the playoffs. Yeah, I think we're seeing that there is a price to pay for riding the same 2 or 3 RPers game after game. But in the big pix, after 7 months of baseball, it is a war of attrition to a degree. I mean, while the Yankee staff and pen were awesome almost all the way thru their playoff run, even they were starting to show some cracks by the end. It's definitely a balancing act, and Roberts in particular is paying the price for his quick hooks and the use of 6 and 7 arms every game.


So many of the bullpen woes would be alleviated if the starters went 6 innings instead of 4. It's one thing in an elimination game but now almost every playoff game is being treated where the SP's job is just to get through the order twice (four IP) and then bullpen, bullpen, bullpen even if the starter's pitching well. And pitching closers two innings in non-elimination games when they hardly ever do it, setup guys every freaking day, etc doesn't help either. LA didn't exactly have a taxing playoff run till this series and next to no pressure in the regular season and THEY'RE dying on the vine so I don't know if it's just playoff overuse or the inevitable wearing down from full season use combined with playoff overuse.

Plus having starters pitch in relief and only pitch like short relievers also makes no sense. If you're going to carry these guys why not try to get length out of them?!


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