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?
Poll ended at Tue Oct 31, 2017 2:20 pm
Kevin Kaczmarski (OF) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Gerson Bautista (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Jordan Humphreys (RHP) 19%  19%  [ 4 ]
Colin Holderman (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Corey Oswalt (RHP) 29%  29%  [ 6 ]
Juan Uriarte (C) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
David Thompson (3B) 29%  29%  [ 6 ]
Jamie Callahan (RHP) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Nabil Crismatt (RHP) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Adrian Hernandez (OF) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 21
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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 5:44 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Yeah I think Thomspson is a safe bet to land somewhere around here (if not higher) on the professional lists. He was a 4th round pick, Not top of the draft, but not later where more fringy guys with little upside go. He was pretty well regarded out of college, one of the top power hitters in Division I baseball.

And his profile hasn't changed much. He hasn't performed well enough obviously to turn that into blue chip type projected starter status. But he hasn't been awful. Hit still .263 with 16 HR and 68 RBI this year in Binghamton, after an even more solid year offensively in 2016. His glove now looks solid (better than was believed at draft time), he has good plate discipline, he doesn't strike out too much, and the raw power is still there for him to potentially put up better numbers down the road than he has yet shown.

I think he might be a top 20 guy in most systems. Though I don't really think the Mets are even that thin in the 15-20 range, I think the weakness in this system is mostly at the top. If you are lucky enough to have a couple of guys break out big next year, the system could quickly be back to middle-of -the pack.


This reads like what someone would've said about Matt Reynolds 2 years ago, too. I'm not sure I see a single thing Thompson does better than "generic minor league 3B" other than the fact that he has no single huge glaring weakness, but I don't think he would be a "top 20 guy" in most systems. I think he's the kind of guy that almost every system has in their upper levels and in 3 or 4 of the 30 cases, that guy exceeds expectations and becomes, I dunno, Yangervis Solarte or Travis Shaw or hey, even Daniel Murphy...but most become Nick Evans or Mike Carp or whoever.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:20 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
Yeah I think Thomspson is a safe bet to land somewhere around here (if not higher) on the professional lists. He was a 4th round pick, Not top of the draft, but not later where more fringy guys with little upside go. He was pretty well regarded out of college, one of the top power hitters in Division I baseball.

And his profile hasn't changed much. He hasn't performed well enough obviously to turn that into blue chip type projected starter status. But he hasn't been awful. Hit still .263 with 16 HR and 68 RBI this year in Binghamton, after an even more solid year offensively in 2016. His glove now looks solid (better than was believed at draft time), he has good plate discipline, he doesn't strike out too much, and the raw power is still there for him to potentially put up better numbers down the road than he has yet shown.

I think he might be a top 20 guy in most systems. Though I don't really think the Mets are even that thin in the 15-20 range, I think the weakness in this system is mostly at the top. If you are lucky enough to have a couple of guys break out big next year, the system could quickly be back to middle-of -the pack.


This reads like what someone would've said about Matt Reynolds 2 years ago, too. I'm not sure I see a single thing Thompson does better than "generic minor league 3B" other than the fact that he has no single huge glaring weakness, but I don't think he would be a "top 20 guy" in most systems. I think he's the kind of guy that almost every system has and in 3 or 4 of the 30 cases, that guy exceeds expectations and becomes, I dunno, Yangervis Solarte or Travis Shaw or hey, even Daniel Murphy...but most become Nick Evans or Mike Carp or whoever.

There are certainly guys who go on to continue developing even after getting to the show. Heck, players reaching new peaks in their late 20s no one imagined isn't even that rare anymore. I could prob name 15-20 players who fit this description in 2017. So, guy like this who might be considered to have a broad but average skillset could get better as he hits 27/28 if he's lucky enough to get into the right situation. But at this stage, there isn't a lot that separates him so it's prob fair to say that the ceiling could be fringy everyday player, maybe like a David Freese who had a few good years. Saying anything more wouldn't be justifiable. And of course the floor would be quad A player. I would say that if the defense has come as far as some are suggesting, that some MLB future looks brighter than before for him.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:21 pm 
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I like Thompson around here but Oswalt has a better chance of being an impact major leaguer imo.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:31 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
Yeah I think Thomspson is a safe bet to land somewhere around here (if not higher) on the professional lists. He was a 4th round pick, Not top of the draft, but not later where more fringy guys with little upside go. He was pretty well regarded out of college, one of the top power hitters in Division I baseball.

And his profile hasn't changed much. He hasn't performed well enough obviously to turn that into blue chip type projected starter status. But he hasn't been awful. Hit still .263 with 16 HR and 68 RBI this year in Binghamton, after an even more solid year offensively in 2016. His glove now looks solid (better than was believed at draft time), he has good plate discipline, he doesn't strike out too much, and the raw power is still there for him to potentially put up better numbers down the road than he has yet shown.

I think he might be a top 20 guy in most systems. Though I don't really think the Mets are even that thin in the 15-20 range, I think the weakness in this system is mostly at the top. If you are lucky enough to have a couple of guys break out big next year, the system could quickly be back to middle-of -the pack.


This reads like what someone would've said about Matt Reynolds 2 years ago, too. I'm not sure I see a single thing Thompson does better than "generic minor league 3B" other than the fact that he has no single huge glaring weakness, but I don't think he would be a "top 20 guy" in most systems. I think he's the kind of guy that almost every system has and in 3 or 4 of the 30 cases, that guy exceeds expectations and becomes, I dunno, Yangervis Solarte or Travis Shaw or hey, even Daniel Murphy...but most become Nick Evans or Mike Carp or whoever.

There are certainly guys who go on to continue developing even after getting to the show. Heck, players reaching new peaks in their late 20s no one imagined isn't even that rare anymore. I could prob name 15-20 players who fit this description in 2017. So, guy like this who might be considered to have a broad but average skillset could get better as he hits 27/28 if he's lucky enough to get into the right situation. But at this stage, there isn't a lot that separates him so it's prob fair to say that the ceiling could be fringy everyday player, maybe like a David Freese who had a few good years. Saying anything more wouldn't be justifiable. And of course the floor would be quad A player. I would say that if the defense has come as far as some are suggesting, that some MLB future looks brighter than before for him.


I think we're saying the same thing, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:46 pm 
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Not scientific...I went with Oswalt because I see him having some major league playing time throughout 2018. I see Thompson cracking the majors not until September. That being said, I could go for either player in this slot. That being said, I really hope both of these gentlemen will be major leaguers but I don't see a huge ceiling for either.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 6:46 pm 
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I’m already in record as not being a huge Thompson guy but top 20-25 in a bad system having any shot of being a league average regular seems to be where he belongs

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 7:22 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
This reads like what someone would've said about Matt Reynolds 2 years ago, too. I'm not sure I see a single thing Thompson does better than "generic minor league 3B" other than the fact that he has no single huge glaring weakness, but I don't think he would be a "top 20 guy" in most systems.


I think you are dramatically overestimating "most systems". Sure most systems have a guy or two like this. But those guys are on their lists by the time they get to 20.

You could also have said similar things like this about many guys who went on to be productive big leaguers, such as John Jay, Brian Dozier, Scooter Genmett, Chase Headley, Chris Iannetta, Tommy Pham, Danny Valencia, etc. Basically anyone who wasn't a first round pick, and didn't destroy the minor leagues offensively.

The guys who are top picks, with all-star tools, and the guys who dominate the minors, they usually end up in your top 10.

This is a guy with solid regular tools, with 113, 115, 105 wRC+ each of the last 3 seasons, and currently in the top 10 OPS in the AFL (though obviously a small sample). I think we've already voted on a few guys with similarly average upside, and more glaring flaws.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #17?
PostPosted: Mon Oct 30, 2017 9:55 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
Yeah I think Thomspson is a safe bet to land somewhere around here (if not higher) on the professional lists. He was a 4th round pick, Not top of the draft, but not later where more fringy guys with little upside go. He was pretty well regarded out of college, one of the top power hitters in Division I baseball.

And his profile hasn't changed much. He hasn't performed well enough obviously to turn that into blue chip type projected starter status. But he hasn't been awful. Hit still .263 with 16 HR and 68 RBI this year in Binghamton, after an even more solid year offensively in 2016. His glove now looks solid (better than was believed at draft time), he has good plate discipline, he doesn't strike out too much, and the raw power is still there for him to potentially put up better numbers down the road than he has yet shown.

I think he might be a top 20 guy in most systems. Though I don't really think the Mets are even that thin in the 15-20 range, I think the weakness in this system is mostly at the top. If you are lucky enough to have a couple of guys break out big next year, the system could quickly be back to middle-of -the pack.


This reads like what someone would've said about Matt Reynolds 2 years ago, too. I'm not sure I see a single thing Thompson does better than "generic minor league 3B" other than the fact that he has no single huge glaring weakness, but I don't think he would be a "top 20 guy" in most systems. I think he's the kind of guy that almost every system has in their upper levels and in 3 or 4 of the 30 cases, that guy exceeds expectations and becomes, I dunno, Yangervis Solarte or Travis Shaw or hey, even Daniel Murphy...but most become Nick Evans or Mike Carp or whoever.


We never rated him that high, but other lists had Matt Reynolds as high as 9 or 10 on mets lists. (see baseballcube for the 9/10 reference).

http://www.thebaseballcube.com/players/ ... reynolds-4

But Reynolds is a bit of an odd comp to Thompson. Reynolds was a 2nd round pick, who didn't hit much his Freshman and Sophmore years, broke out his Junior year with .323 .427 .498 925 with 7 homers, 20 doubles, 16 stolen bases, 40 walks to 33 Ks. He was a two way player who drew walks and had some speed and perhaps had the glove for SS and maybe a bat too. He might have been a boring, low upside 2 way player, but that's why he went in the 2nd round.

Thompson hit like a stud in college. He even hit as a freshman. His junior numbers: .328 .434 .640 1074 with 19 homers and 43 walks to 29 Ks. He hit for more power and had a lower K rate than Reynolds. 9.2 to Reynolds 11.5 Thompson was a different level of bat, but he fell to the 4th round because of his thoracic outlet surgery and questions about his throwing arm and if he'd stick at 3rd.

Reynolds was a kind of a boring but likely to see majors type of pick. Thompson was a fun but big question marks pick.

That said, you're absolutely right that Thompson could become Mike Carp or Nick Evans. Many more mid-range prospects miss than hit. But to be fair to Carp, I think his 108 OPS+ would play better at 3rd base than 1st base/ugly left field.

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