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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:14 am 
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Ralf wrote:
The payroll is still $12m BELOW the payroll at the start of last year WITHOUT including Wright's insurance money.


Wrights insurance money is the same as last year. And, to be fair, the mets said payroll would be lower and they said they spent more than they wanted to last year.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:31 am 
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Legend of NYFS

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Ralf wrote:
The payroll is still $12m BELOW the payroll at the start of last year WITHOUT including Wright's insurance money.


Oh yeah, I'm not praising the payroll by any means. Just saying Sherman's reporting of a hard cap at whatever the number was was wrong.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 11:45 am 
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Jason Vargas throws an 85 mph "fast"ball and missed most of 2015-2016, so understood why he's not hugely popular, but I think many (I know I was) would be surprised to see the consistent back-end effectiveness he has shown since 2010 (when he was put in Seattle's rotation full time).

He's basically a lock to give the 2014-2016 Colon-type effectiveness when he's out there.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... position=P

Given we paid, what, 3/30 for Colon, if they end up with Vargas on a low-base 1 year deal, thats probably pretty good. Not sexy, of course, but I think its a better play than a Cashner, despite the difference in stuff, given Cashner's ever present health issues and up and down effectiveness. And still think Cashner is holding out for much more than Vargas - wasn't Texas reportedly on the fence about a QO with him? He signed a 1/10 deal last year coming off an awful year, so have to think he's holding out for at least that.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:09 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
I think the big miss was the reporting on the payroll, which made it seem like we'd be done after Swarzak.


Yeah that came from Sherman, but was refuted in relatively short order (as much as we were hesitant to believe it) by Harper, Martino and others. And it didn't even really make much sense given that the budget Sherman reported would've been wiped out (and then some) by the reported "done deal" we had for Kipnis.

I still think the most important bit - which many framed as a negative and hindrance to Sandy - is the idea that again we've heard payroll is never set. If this market took off like past offseasons and Jay Bruce had 5/80 offers or Tod Frazier was looking at 3/45, I'd say its unlikely we were going to be seriously involved, and maybe our team does look a lot different. But it does seem as though Sandy pitched some opportunistic below market signings and they were approved.

Yeah, it's most likely this. If the market were closer to normal, the Mets prob were not going to land Bruce or Frazier and certainly not both. As it turned out, they decided to be opportunistic and Sandy got these deals approved. Would have been interesting to know what they would have done (likely dive in scrap heap) had the market been more robust.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:18 pm 
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What we're seeing on the FA market is not really that big a surprise as more and more teams have sought out short term deals for most available players. The result of seeing fewer and fewer multi-year contracts being given out is that there is more supply (of players) on the FA market each year, and that over-supply has finally saturated the market to the point where it has become a buyers' market.

The corresponding trend which has also been several years in the making seems like the separation between the big dollar deals for the few elites at the top end of the market and everyone else who seem to be treated as commodities now by the 30 teams. So the players getting the big deals plus player getting Arb year raises are combining to drive aggregate payrolls up, leaving little to spend for the non-elite FAs.

The other casualty of the flood of players available as FAs, is that teams no longer have to make trades to fill roles and roster spots. We used to see way more winter deals but free agents being so readily available seems to have curtailed that to a large extent. That's clearly true here and the Alderson sentiments on this are prob the same things most other GMs are saying.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 12:42 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
piazzafan wrote:

The worst arbitration raise this year was definately Shellby Millers. The guy was sooo bad in 2016 that he was demoted and in 2017 he was injured. Yet he gets a raise? The arbitrator is basically making the DBacks pay for Shellby Millers one good year in 2015 which to add insult to injury was with the Braves.


A $200,000 dollar raise? The d'backs were dumb to offer zero. If they'd offered $100,000 they'd have won.


Why? Is there a clause in the CBA that says the players automatically get raises every year no matter what? He was terrible and deserved no raise at all. MLB should release the arbiters reason for his decisions on these cases. The fact that a player can contribute nothing for two years and still get a raise is mind boggling. BTW, I don't think you can say without a doubt had they Dbacks offered $100,000 they would have won.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:14 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
Josh Donaldson basically calling out Jon Heyman for BS about what his friends are saying he's looking for is fantastic. Donaldson told Heyman he doesn't know his friends. :lol:

Amazing how these guys continue to masquerade as inside sources and still have followings. Sports journalism is dead. The young guys are lazy and have nothing and the old guys have gotten lazy apparently by learning from the young guys.

Eh I doubt that this stuff didn’t go on in the good old days too. I’m sure there were times where players disagreed with or refuted rumors that media members wrote about. It just wasn’t as easy as going on twitter to complain about it

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
"Wright is greedy" is easily the worst take in the recent history of Mets fandom, and there have been some bad takes in Mets fandom.

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When I hear Yankee fans whine I always laugh. It is like the people who invented the color blue complaining about life


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 1:47 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
piazzafan wrote:

The worst arbitration raise this year was definately Shellby Millers. The guy was sooo bad in 2016 that he was demoted and in 2017 he was injured. Yet he gets a raise? The arbitrator is basically making the DBacks pay for Shellby Millers one good year in 2015 which to add insult to injury was with the Braves.


A $200,000 dollar raise? The d'backs were dumb to offer zero. If they'd offered $100,000 they'd have won.


Why? Is there a clause in the CBA that says the players automatically get raises every year no matter what? He was terrible and deserved no raise at all. MLB should release the arbiters reason for his decisions on these cases. The fact that a player can contribute nothing for two years and still get a raise is mind boggling. BTW, I don't think you can say without a doubt had they Dbacks offered $100,000 they would have won.


It's hard to find good lists of data on arbitration. The written rule is that it must be at least 80% of the salary. The unwritten rule is that they pretty much never cut salary, especially now with revenues on the rise.

Players who missed the entire year will often get the same salary. Shelby didn't miss the entire year, he made 4 starts (12% of a full season) and contributed 0.4 wins. He got a 4% raise.

It's not really something I feel strongly about. I just don't see the outrage. Everyone knows how arbitration works.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:15 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Jason Vargas throws an 85 mph "fast"ball and missed most of 2015-2016, so understood why he's not hugely popular, but I think many (I know I was) would be surprised to see the consistent back-end effectiveness he has shown since 2010 (when he was put in Seattle's rotation full time).

He's basically a lock to give the 2014-2016 Colon-type effectiveness when he's out there.

https://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?p ... position=P

Given we paid, what, 3/30 for Colon, if they end up with Vargas on a low-base 1 year deal, thats probably pretty good. Not sexy, of course, but I think its a better play than a Cashner, despite the difference in stuff, given Cashner's ever present health issues and up and down effectiveness. And still think Cashner is holding out for much more than Vargas - wasn't Texas reportedly on the fence about a QO with him? He signed a 1/10 deal last year coming off an awful year, so have to think he's holding out for at least that.


I don't get the disapproval of Vargas.

He was great for the first half of last year and then hit a wall. Probably becaus body wasn't used to a full season anymore.

I would be thrilled with the Mets adding him for a year or two.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:30 pm 
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Vargas through his first 16 starts in 2017:

101.1 IP, batting line against: .237/.285/.347/.632

3.08 K/BB and 2.22 ERA.

He couldn't sustain that, but the guy still knows how to get outs.


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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:32 pm 
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OK, you guys have sold me on Vargas. Depth is always good.

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 Post subject: Re: The 2017-2018 Offseason News Thread
PostPosted: Fri Feb 09, 2018 2:39 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Vargas through his first 16 starts in 2017:

101.1 IP, batting line against: .237/.285/.347/.632

3.08 K/BB and 2.22 ERA.

He couldn't sustain that, but the guy still knows how to get outs.


I don't think they are AGAINST him. They just prefer the bigger, more attractive names. I am with you though. Do I think Lynn will be better? Yes. But I wouldn't mind this pickup.
That said, I doubt they go this way though. Unless they really desire to put one of the starters in the pen right off the bat.

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