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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:05 pm 
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Well ostensibly the stats WERE far worse third time through the order for most of the non-Thor and Jake pitchers last year. But the solution is to get guys that can give you innings, not hope and pray you can piggyback Harvey and Gsellman every fifth day, or Lugo and Wheeler.


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:23 pm 
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Its not really a revelation that guys who struggled overall have bad numbers the 3rd time through the order.

Gsellman had a 6.66 FIP the 3rd time through the order. That's bad. He also had a 5.18 FIP the 1st time through the order. Guess what - thats also really bad.

Steven Matz actually had his lowest FIP the 3rd time through the order. It still wasn't good! (4.66) But it was better than the first time through (4.79) and especially second time through (5.57).

Just as much as we can supposedly improve by getting Hansel Robles in there in the 5th inning instead of those 2, we could also improve by not having such terrible pitching occur in innings 1 and 2 as well!

Anyway, even if ostensibly you can show that the third time through an order often proves to be a tipping point - thats also not necessarily groundbreaking. Starting pitcher effectiveness wanes as he tires - breaking news. The point is often of either a necessarily evil or degrees of lesser effectiveness (depending on how you look at it) as simply replacing a pitcher based on pre-determined intervals like that just leads often to inferior overall talent being inserted onto the mound (even if that arm is "fresh" - and how fresh that arm will be if you regularly employ this quick hook strategy will be up for debate), sometimes in difficult situations (runners on, etc), and of course, too many outs to gobble up on a day-in, day-out basis for a standard bullpen.

As we found out in 2015, the best way to win "through pitching" is to have a starting staff that is capable of dominance day in and day out. That covers a lot of other ills - including keeping a team that fielded lineups with Eric Campbell and JMJ in prime spots and a bullpen that had Carlos Torres and Sean Gilmartin as its top setup options through July somehow "in contention".

Absent that, you're going to be looking to replicate the bullpen the Yanks had down the stretch this year. We're about 3 or 4 good relievers away from doing that.


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 4:25 pm 
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I'm a believer in a more a reliever is seen the better chance the batter has due to the relievers limited pitch arsenal unless you are Mariano Rivera. So this starter 2 times through an order worries me as well as the increase in innings.

Houston got to where they were because they absolutely killed the ball. As a team they were .282/.346/.478/.823 for the year, thats impressive.

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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 6:20 pm 
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ndfordarling wrote:
I'm a believer in a more a reliever is seen the better chance the batter has due to the relievers limited pitch arsenal unless you are Mariano Rivera. So this starter 2 times through an order worries me as well as the increase in innings.

Houston got to where they were because they absolutely killed the ball. As a team they were .282/.346/.478/.823 for the year, thats impressive.



Those aren't the correct lyrics :D


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:35 pm 
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Steve The Original wrote:
ndfordarling wrote:
I'm a believer in a more a reliever is seen the better chance the batter has due to the relievers limited pitch arsenal unless you are Mariano Rivera. So this starter 2 times through an order worries me as well as the increase in innings.

Houston got to where they were because they absolutely killed the ball. As a team they were .282/.346/.478/.823 for the year, thats impressive.



Those aren't the correct lyrics :D


No?!!??? That wasn’t what Neil Was writing about?

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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 9:45 pm 
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Steve The Original wrote:
I mentioned in one of the other threads that he certainly didn't seem married to the "starting pitcher twice thru the lineup," rumors we have been hearing. If anything sounds like he believes in starting pitchers increasing their innings total, not reducing them.


He said that on hot stove.... the 4 inning thing is coming from beat writers. Calloway wants his guys to throw 230 innings


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 10:03 pm 
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IlikeIKE wrote:
Steve The Original wrote:
I mentioned in one of the other threads that he certainly didn't seem married to the "starting pitcher twice thru the lineup," rumors we have been hearing. If anything sounds like he believes in starting pitchers increasing their innings total, not reducing them.


He said that on hot stove.... the 4 inning thing is coming from beat writers. Calloway wants his guys to throw 230 innings


Well beat writers and Sandy who ostensibly said something similar yesterday or the day before.


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Tue Nov 14, 2017 11:31 pm 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
IlikeIKE wrote:
Steve The Original wrote:
I mentioned in one of the other threads that he certainly didn't seem married to the "starting pitcher twice thru the lineup," rumors we have been hearing. If anything sounds like he believes in starting pitchers increasing their innings total, not reducing them.


He said that on hot stove.... the 4 inning thing is coming from beat writers. Calloway wants his guys to throw 230 innings


Well beat writers and Sandy who ostensibly said something similar yesterday or the day before.


And then Callaway kinda today lol.


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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Wed Nov 15, 2017 1:34 pm 
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The back end of the rotation might end up following this philosophy but I am pretty sure he feels that the front end will/can go deeper.
Getting back to my point of the thread, I really like the environment he will try to create.

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 Post subject: Re: Hotstove Callaway
PostPosted: Sun Nov 19, 2017 8:00 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
As we found out in 2015, the best way to win "through pitching" is to have a starting staff that is capable of dominance day in and day out. That covers a lot of other ills - including keeping a team that fielded lineups with Eric Campbell and JMJ in prime spots and a bullpen that had Carlos Torres and Sean Gilmartin as its top setup options through July somehow "in contention".
.


And have the presumed divisional front-runner implode


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