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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:41 pm 
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They just took Becerra off.

Bautista, Oswalt and Guillorme are credible choices.

Sanchez is too early. Carpio would be absurd.

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 6:55 pm 
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Jays just traded for Gift Ngoepe. That guy has literally been all around the world. Still one of my favorite baseball stories ever.


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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:01 pm 
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People argued that you can't showcase a guy in the AFL, have him do well, and then not add him to the roster! Boy, good thing they followed that paradigm for Molina!


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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 7:02 pm 
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Bautista, Guillorme, Bashlor & Oswalt as expected.


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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:03 pm 
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Leaving off Bashlor would have been beyond stupid. Best relief prospect in the system, legit stuff and close

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 8:19 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Bautista, Guillorme, Bashlor & Oswalt as expected.


That was pretty solid. Glad they protected Oswalt.

So that leaves a few names on the partial scare list...Uceta being the most likely, I'd think.

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Mon Nov 20, 2017 10:54 pm 
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Are there potential guys to add around the league?

I often feel that teams might underutilize the Rule 5, Mets among them.


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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:08 am 
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With the roster at 39, they're going to have to do a little shuffling before they embark on free agency.

And Oswalt surprises me a little, though I'd love to be wrong about him. I enjoy eating grow when it comes to my dismissing a prospect.

The other 3 were my guesses and expected.

As for whether Uceta get picked up, a lot depends on who's available from other teams and how many teams are selecting this year. I think he's far enough away to be 90% safe.

Jannis is an interesting case too, potential sleeper/starter, maybe.

Anyhoo . . . . It almost feels like the off-season is underway now. Mets roster at 39 they could, in theory, make a rule 5 selection too and picking 6th ain't bad.

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 12:19 am 
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MaxV wrote:
Are there potential guys to add around the league?

I often feel that teams might underutilize the Rule 5, Mets among them.


Statistically, rule 5 selections stink and there's not much argument that it's underutilized. The Padres played the rule 5 very aggressive last year with 3 young, upside selections in the first 4 picks, but the jury's still out on the 3 guys they too. Time will tell.

2014 was an unusually strong rule 5 draft. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results#2014

and the mets could have benefited by keeping Darren O'day selected 2008 for the 2009 season, but they didn't. O'day was selected 15th in the 2008 rule 5 draft though, so it's not like he stood out as a "pick me, pick me" type.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rule_5_draft_results#2008

90% of the time, rule 5 draft picks don't work out, so it's not a good gamble if a team has a tight roster. More of a once in a while you get lucky kind of thing than anything else. It's kind of fun, but it mostly doesn't play out.

- - -

and somebody wrote last year, I forget who, but he made a solid point. The rule 5 adds guys who won't see majors most years (like Marcos Molina and Wuilmer Becerra last year), and it blocks guys who are on the cusp, so in a sense it's unfair to older, closer players - the Nick Evans/Jayce Boyd/Travis Taijeron types who are knocking on the door, but don't get 40 man roster spots in April cause they're not seen as high upside. It's good that they have the draft to give players a chance if they're buried on another team's depth, but there's also an unfairness to it, locking up guys in A ball for upside, and blocking a guy in AAA in the process.

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 6:34 am 
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Though this was interesting, especially the Andrew Church suggestion. Maybe we start liking Church next year?

http://metsmerizedonline.com/2017/11/mm ... raft.html/

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 7:21 am 
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jdawginsc wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Bautista, Guillorme, Bashlor & Oswalt as expected.


That was pretty solid. Glad they protected Oswalt.

So that leaves a few names on the partial scare list...Uceta being the most likely, I'd think.


I could easily see a team like the Marlins or the Tigers picking up Uceta. But with only 16 IP above Lo-A, this is an acceptable risk.

Bautista and Bashlor were no-brainers. I might have taken Jannis over Oswalt, but the knuckleball is a "gimmick pitch" and an R.A. Dickey only comes along once in a generation, right?

Guillorme is the real gem. I have seen comparisons to Rey Ordonez's glove and Fernando Vina's bat. While he doesn't light up any prospect reports, this is exactly the type of blue-collar, day-in-day-out type of player the Mets need. I am really hoping they don't block him at second beyond this year. He probably needs to see some AAA pitching, but I am very glad they kept him.

So far so good this offseason, Syracuse, Callaway/Coaching Staff, Revised Training and Injury Prevention, Good news about Conforto and now solid roster additions. They still need to add some MLB players at next month's winter meetings and they need to get those arms healthy, but as of Thanksgiving Week, they at least appear to be headed in the right direction. Long way to go for sure.

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 Post subject: Re: It's the most wonderful time of the year -Rule 5 Protect
PostPosted: Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:17 am 
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Looking at the numbers, 39 on the roster.

16 position players, 23 pitchers. That's a lot of pitchers.
2 of the 16 position players are expected to start the year on the DL.

C: d'Arnaud, Plaw, Nido
1B: Dom
2B: Wilmer, Cheech, (TJ)
SS: Rosario, Guillorme, Reynolds
3B: Cabrera (Wright)
OF: Conforto, Cespedes, Lagares, Nimmo

Little thin, especially in the OF.

12 relievers, 11 starters (where some of them can slide over to the bullpen).

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