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?
Poll ended at Fri Dec 08, 2017 10:34 am
Blackham 69%  69%  [ 9 ]
Becerra 31%  31%  [ 4 ]
Total votes : 13
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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 12:57 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:

And btw, same thing goes for MattP who was dominating the SALY at 25 this year.



Another guy I mentioned people liked after seeing in the AFL whom you for some reason had issue with receiving praise lol. 30th best prospect in a "bad" system isn't exactly high praise. As for the age issue, his own team had an average age of 21.5 with 18 players making appearances who were 23 or older so lets not act like him being 24 was him feasting on HS kids. The average pitcher in Savannah was 22.6 with 12 pitchers 23 or older making appearances. The SAL is full of second and 3rd year draftees from college not a bunch of HS kids who haven't seen "Matt Blackham's".


I like Matt P and I think he should be added soon. I still wonder why the Diamondbacks released him so early, but I don't think I'll ever know.

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:03 pm 
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One would assume some sort of off-field issue but that's probably an unfair guess.

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:31 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
No, I just find it kind of odd how you strongly advocate a guy like Jayce Boyd (regardless of any facts ie they left him exposed at the milb level for the cost of 12,000...) but when I randomly note a scout liked Pobereyko after seeing him in the AFL you were extremely quick to downplay this. Jayce Boyd is 27 years old this month and can't play the OF, the Mets are leaving him available for 12,000! and yet because you like him you defend him (and that's your right) but you sure pick and choose when to care about age etc. And yeah, age matters far less for a RP. There are plenty of examples of guys who randomly pop up and have a few year run as a mid-late 20 (even 30's) out of the pen. Far less so with other positions.

So I find lots of things odd. Boom! We're in sync about that! :D

As to Boyd, he moved thru the system at age appropriate levels all along the way and had some relative success '13, '14 & '15. His problem was always lack of power and I assume his shoulder issues contributed some to that and just a swing more conducive to singles and doubles than HRs. 2015 and 2016 seem to have been where the injury affected him the most. This season he had a very successful year in AAA at 26. That's not a situation of an older guy dominating kids. It's AAA where everyone is 25 and 26.

As to him specifically, he's always had a good swing and his 2017 batted ball profile reflects a shift to hitting fewer GBs and that paid off for him with more HRs and a higher SLG than he ever had. I just feel like that deserves recognition. If that change in process can be carried over, there may be a bench bat in there if given an opportunity. And as we know, power is sometimes the last thing that comes anyway. And certainly I'm not dismissing the position issue either.

My judgment doesn't consider what the team may indicate about a player (exposing to waivers etc.). I'm just giving my own assessment.


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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 1:54 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
No, I just find it kind of odd how you strongly advocate a guy like Jayce Boyd (regardless of any facts ie they left him exposed at the milb level for the cost of 12,000...) but when I randomly note a scout liked Pobereyko after seeing him in the AFL you were extremely quick to downplay this. Jayce Boyd is 27 years old this month and can't play the OF, the Mets are leaving him available for 12,000! and yet because you like him you defend him (and that's your right) but you sure pick and choose when to care about age etc. And yeah, age matters far less for a RP. There are plenty of examples of guys who randomly pop up and have a few year run as a mid-late 20 (even 30's) out of the pen. Far less so with other positions.


And let's clarify something. You posted MattP's career K rate. My response was to that and simply that it isn't as impressive as it appears as a 25 yr old in the SALY. Again, not disputing what scouts are saying about him in the AFL.

More about RP age... how many 24 yo or older pitchers have come out of the SALY in the past 10 years or so? I'm really not seeing many, if any.


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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:03 pm 
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Again I think you are losing track of 2 things. #1 Blackham was absolutely dominant for over 3 months. The Mets very easily (likely should have) promoted him to A+ in July. If he put up 20 strong innings in St lucid does that change his profile? Say he finished the year in aa and tossed 8 innings 4 hits 9 k’s, does that suddenly change things? His numbers were outstanding and more than one writer cited him as interesting. To me that warrants consideration as a top 30 prospect in anbqd farm system. If you feel otherwise that is your right

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:10 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Again I think you are losing track of 2 things. #1 Blackham was absolutely dominant for over 3 months. The Mets very easily (likely should have) promoted him to A+ in July. If he put up 20 strong innings in St lucid does that change his profile? Say he finished the year in aa and tossed 8 innings 4 hits 9 k’s, does that suddenly change things? His numbers were outstanding and more than one writer cited him as interesting. To me that warrants consideration as a top 30 prospect in anbqd farm system. If you feel otherwise that is your right

And if Jayce Boyd had been promoted to the Mets in September and looked good hitting 340/380/550 over 60 PAs with 3 HRs, would you feel differently about him?

I mean, the "if" game can work lots of ways. I'd be thrilled to rate Blackham a top 20 prospect in mid year ranks if he blows away the FSL and gets a quick promo to the EL. But I'd like to see it happen. I'm not dismissing the guy out of hand. I'm really just adding age context. You are entitled to weight "reports" as you see fit. I have no problem with that. None.


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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:15 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Again I think you are losing track of 2 things. #1 Blackham was absolutely dominant for over 3 months. The Mets very easily (likely should have) promoted him to A+ in July. If he put up 20 strong innings in St lucid does that change his profile? Say he finished the year in aa and tossed 8 innings 4 hits 9 k’s, does that suddenly change things? His numbers were outstanding and more than one writer cited him as interesting. To me that warrants consideration as a top 30 prospect in anbqd farm system. If you feel otherwise that is your right

And if Jayce Boyd had been promoted to the Mets in September and looked good hitting 340/380/550 over 60 PAs with 3 HRs, would you feel differently about him?

I mean, the "if" game can work lots of ways. I'd be thrilled to rate Blackham a top 20 prospect in mid year ranks if he blows away the FSL and gets a quick promo to the EL. But I'd like to see it happen. I'm not dismissing the guy out of hand. I'm really just adding age context. You are entitled to weight "reports" as you see fit. I have no problem with that. None.


Sure but that would 1. "Confirm" the Mets saw him as someone worth looking at (assuming he wasn't just forced in there due to lack of bodies) 2. That would be impressive production even if it were over a limited SS 3. We would have some idea what the Mets think of him going forward as he either would have remained on the 40 man (meaning they considered him worth keeping) or removed (suggesting despite hitting well they don't view him as a prospect). You have to admit that they are essentially "giving" Boyd away at this point, it doesn't mean they are correct (and you are wrong) but it does suggest THEY don't think much of him.

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:22 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Again I think you are losing track of 2 things. #1 Blackham was absolutely dominant for over 3 months. The Mets very easily (likely should have) promoted him to A+ in July. If he put up 20 strong innings in St lucid does that change his profile? Say he finished the year in aa and tossed 8 innings 4 hits 9 k’s, does that suddenly change things? His numbers were outstanding and more than one writer cited him as interesting. To me that warrants consideration as a top 30 prospect in anbqd farm system. If you feel otherwise that is your right

And if Jayce Boyd had been promoted to the Mets in September and looked good hitting 340/380/550 over 60 PAs with 3 HRs, would you feel differently about him?

I mean, the "if" game can work lots of ways. I'd be thrilled to rate Blackham a top 20 prospect in mid year ranks if he blows away the FSL and gets a quick promo to the EL. But I'd like to see it happen. I'm not dismissing the guy out of hand. I'm really just adding age context. You are entitled to weight "reports" as you see fit. I have no problem with that. None.


Sure but that would 1. "Confirm" the Mets saw him as someone worth looking at (assuming he wasn't just forced in there due to lack of bodies) 2. That would be impressive production even if it were over a limited SS 3. We would have some idea what the Mets think of him going forward as he either would have remained on the 40 man (meaning they considered him worth keeping) or removed (suggesting despite hitting well they don't view him as a prospect). You have to admit that they are essentially "giving" Boyd away at this point, it doesn't mean they are correct (and you are wrong) but it does suggest THEY don't think much of him.


It was merely a hypothetical to illustrate that any "if" scenario can be constructed to support any position we are taking about any player. It wasn't about Boyd specifically.

I could have used Rhame. If Rhame had been really impressive after getting called up, he'd have been ranked in the top 25 now. He wasn't, so he's not ranked particularly high here now.

Bottom line is that Blackham has never pitched above the SALY, that's it. Anything more is just speculation. And that's fine.

(and btw, I voted for him here over WB.)


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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:27 pm 
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And for the record Sewald was 23 in Savannah, Dario Alvarez was 25, Josh Edgin 24, Smoker was 26 and.... Jacob DeGrom... 24. So while any older player has long odds it's not as if it's going to be mind blowing to see Blackham somehow find his way into the equation. It doesn't happen "dozens" of times but it does happen. 92-95 touching 97 and proven resume of missing bats = intriguing enough in a bad system to me.

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:30 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
And for the record Sewald was 23 in Savannah, Dario Alvarez was 25, Josh Edgin 24, Smoker was 26 and.... Jacob DeGrom... 24. So while any older player has long odds it's not as if it's going to be mind blowing to see Blackham somehow find his way into the equation. It doesn't happen "dozens" of times but it does happen. 92-95 touching 97 and proven resume of missing bats = intriguing enough in a bad system to me.

The Mets do seem to be more age-agnostic than most other teams (led by the oldest GM makes this no surprise).


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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:35 pm 
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Lets hope DePo returns as the heads roll in Cleveland. At least from the outside it seemed like Sandy actually let him have some leeway here.

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 Post subject: Re: #30 runoff Blackham vs. Becerra
PostPosted: Thu Dec 07, 2017 2:39 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Lets hope DePo returns as the heads roll in Cleveland. At least from the outside it seemed like Sandy actually let him have some leeway here.

Oh god, I really hope not. I feel like we have him to thank/blame for all the early round failures - Kaupe, Welch, Tuschak, Pill, Verrett, Frenzel, Muno, Church, Wilson, Mazz, King, Eudor, Katz, MTM, etc.


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