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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 1:05 pm 
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nmigliore wrote:
I don't think there is much you can do with that much to spend. Moving Ramos and his projected $9.2M arbitration salary would be a must. That would probably give you enough wiggle room to sign two of Dyson, Frazier, or Walker. But does that really make the team that much better? As the team is currently constructed, Fangraphs' depth charts project the Mets to get about 2 WAR from each of CF, 3B, and 2B. All three of the above players are projected for something around 2 to 2.5 WAR. I'm not taking those depth chart projections as gospel, but it is still worth noting. And you're also downgrading the bullpen by dumping Ramos.



Yeah, I mean, who kinda cares about what they "say" the plan is - but to the extent we still have any faith the group running baseball operations knows a thing or two about winning baseball games, they've sold you on an idea that the best way to improve the pitching from last year is shorten games which improves effectiveness AND health of our starters (given that we're not actually investing any resources to upgrade talent).

Trade Ramos and our bullpen is definitely worse and thinner than it was last year, when it wasn't good. And it could go real south is Swarzak is a 1 year wonder and/or succumbs to the fact that his performance bump basically raises every health-related red flag possible.

I guess the idea is you're improving in other areas that you wouldn't have otherwise so the plan just shifts, but I see that as a hard sell and not something they'll actually do.

I think if you need to find pennies, dumping Matt Harvey now and just eating the 1/6th of his salary or however that works and moving on - given that he's no better of a bet than the cavalcade of less costly options at the back end of the rotation (and might be worse, but carried anyway due to cost) - is the way I'd go.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:33 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
nmigliore wrote:
I don't think there is much you can do with that much to spend. Moving Ramos and his projected $9.2M arbitration salary would be a must. That would probably give you enough wiggle room to sign two of Dyson, Frazier, or Walker. But does that really make the team that much better? As the team is currently constructed, Fangraphs' depth charts project the Mets to get about 2 WAR from each of CF, 3B, and 2B. All three of the above players are projected for something around 2 to 2.5 WAR. I'm not taking those depth chart projections as gospel, but it is still worth noting. And you're also downgrading the bullpen by dumping Ramos.



Yeah, I mean, who kinda cares about what they "say" the plan is - but to the extent we still have any faith the group running baseball operations knows a thing or two about winning baseball games, they've sold you on an idea that the best way to improve the pitching from last year is shorten games which improves effectiveness AND health of our starters (given that we're not actually investing any resources to upgrade talent).

Trade Ramos and our bullpen is definitely worse and thinner than it was last year, when it wasn't good. And it could go real south is Swarzak is a 1 year wonder and/or succumbs to the fact that his performance bump basically raises every health-related red flag possible.

I guess the idea is you're improving in other areas that you wouldn't have otherwise so the plan just shifts, but I see that as a hard sell and not something they'll actually do.

I think if you need to find pennies, dumping Matt Harvey now and just eating the 1/6th of his salary or however that works and moving on - given that he's no better of a bet than the cavalcade of less costly options at the back end of the rotation (and might be worse, but carried anyway due to cost) - is the way I'd go.

There is a big variance in the outcome for a RPer like Ramos given the command issues. And for a team in the Mets situation, there is almost as much chance they get a "Ramos season" out of a guy like Callahan or Sewald or if they throw someone like Lugo in the pen. I don't mean the saves (as long as Familia is here), but the high leverage value. Meanwhile, AJR's late game counting stats could be something that a team like the Angels, Rangers or Twins could value. So I don't think they necessarily lose anything by moving AJR, and there are so many options still out there to pick up an arm anyway.

And of course, I never wanted to tender Harvey either.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 7:38 pm 
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nmigliore wrote:
I don't think there is much you can do with that much to spend. Moving Ramos and his projected $9.2M arbitration salary would be a must. That would probably give you enough wiggle room to sign two of Dyson, Frazier, or Walker. But does that really make the team that much better? As the team is currently constructed, Fangraphs' depth charts project the Mets to get about 2 WAR from each of CF, 3B, and 2B. All three of the above players are projected for something around 2 to 2.5 WAR. I'm not taking those depth chart projections as gospel, but it is still worth noting. And you're also downgrading the bullpen by dumping Ramos.

So, I don't really know. It would require a lot of creativity to make this roster into a contender with such little budget room. I think the team can compete for a wild card spot but there's at least a handful of other teams in that mix as well, and a few of those teams are in better shape than the Mets (Cardinals and D-Backs; probably the Giants; possibly the Pirates too if they don't trade Cole?)... and with little resources also on the farm, you'd probably be better off rebuilding.


This is basically why I think they should push some chips into the pot and try to land Machado. I mean, if they price is 2 young SPers, then what do they have to lose by offering Gsell and Dunn or Molina?


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Wed Dec 27, 2017 8:38 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
nmigliore wrote:
I don't think there is much you can do with that much to spend. Moving Ramos and his projected $9.2M arbitration salary would be a must. That would probably give you enough wiggle room to sign two of Dyson, Frazier, or Walker. But does that really make the team that much better? As the team is currently constructed, Fangraphs' depth charts project the Mets to get about 2 WAR from each of CF, 3B, and 2B. All three of the above players are projected for something around 2 to 2.5 WAR. I'm not taking those depth chart projections as gospel, but it is still worth noting. And you're also downgrading the bullpen by dumping Ramos.

So, I don't really know. It would require a lot of creativity to make this roster into a contender with such little budget room. I think the team can compete for a wild card spot but there's at least a handful of other teams in that mix as well, and a few of those teams are in better shape than the Mets (Cardinals and D-Backs; probably the Giants; possibly the Pirates too if they don't trade Cole?)... and with little resources also on the farm, you'd probably be better off rebuilding.


This is basically why I think they should push some chips into the pot and try to land Machado. I mean, if they price is 2 young SPers, then what do they have to lose by offering Gsell and Dunn or Molina?


Gsellman and Dunn or Molina? I don't think that quite gets it done.

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 1:47 pm 
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If Mets want to compete on a pitiful budget then they need to make some tough choices

I would make a super trade with Pittsburgh..
The trade would be Wheeler(2m)Flores(4m) Lagares(6.5m) Robles(1m) for J Harrison(10.5m) and A MuCutchen (14.5m)

I would then dump AJ Ramos(9m) for a few prospects..
This would be a net increase of 3.5m to 2018 payroll. Leaving about 6.5m to cover a mid reliever and a utility guy.

I would then sign Agon & Reyes to min contracts.
I would then sign Ollie Perez for 1 yr 2.5m and go after Mikita... on a 2 year 8m deal.

Let’s Recap
Incoming:
OF A McCutchen
2B J Harrison
INF J Reyes
1B A Gonzales
RP Ollie Perez
RP Kaz Mikita
Prospects

Outgoing:
OF J Lagares
INF Flores
SP Wheeler
RP AJ Ramos
RP Hansel Robles
DFA - Matt Reynolds or Chase Bradford.

I think some issues remain like how do the Mets deal with all the drama queens remain, but that’s why the Mets got a new manager no?
However mets get a solid 2B...and some power in McCutchen.

Lugo would slot into Wheelers spot. But Mets can get a guy on a minor league deal for SP depth protection...


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 3:14 pm 
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Harvey, Wheeler ad a prospect for Machado!
Sign Lance Lynn

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:09 pm 
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Gsell, Molina and Gimenez for Machado and Brach.

AJR to the Twins for prospects.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:11 pm 
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Quote:
@jonmorosi
16m16 minutes ago
More
Source: #Orioles continue to hear from multiple teams interested in trading for Manny Machado. It does not appear Orioles have a firm deadline on negotiations. @MLB @MLBNetwork


I know I'm setting myself up for a letdown, but this is pathetic if the Mets don't get involved on this.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:15 pm 
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Get Machado.

Then offer him the whole $10M.

Problem solved.


8)

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:22 pm 
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stevereiff wrote:
I would make a super trade with Pittsburgh..
The trade would be Wheeler(2m)Flores(4m) Lagares(6.5m) Robles(1m) for J Harrison(10.5m) and A MuCutchen (14.5m)


If you had Cutch and Harrison, you'd take that package for them?


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 4:50 pm 
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slugox wrote:
stevereiff wrote:
I would make a super trade with Pittsburgh..
The trade would be Wheeler(2m)Flores(4m) Lagares(6.5m) Robles(1m) for J Harrison(10.5m) and A MuCutchen (14.5m)


If you had Cutch and Harrison, you'd take that package for them?


Probably I might ask for an additional prospect but it isn’t far off...


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Thu Dec 28, 2017 5:19 pm 
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If McCutchen has a good year, he'd fetch 2 top 100 prospects at the trade deadline. It makes no sense for Pittsburgh to trade him for Wheeler, Flores & Junk. Sorry to be harsh, but I don't think that package would get Harrison alone. It certainly doesn't get both. Pittsburgh would ask for Peterson, Gimenez & more for those 2, not Wilmer, Wheeler & something.

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