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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:48 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
thebull wrote:
I'd pretty much give up any 3-4 of our prospects for Machado, though not sure that gets it done without including Rosario (I would include Dom).


Winning the World Series the next 3 years would definitely be worth it, because you know the Wilpons are going to pony up $400M and we're only 1 player away.


8)


Even without the extension, I would make that trade for Machado. He's a legitimate superstar and we could be a legitimate superstar away from winning.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:51 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
slugox wrote:
Matz, one of Gsellman/Lugo/Peterson, and a lesser prospect for Machado. That should at least merit discussion.


You’re kidding right? None of those players have real value in trade.


Nope. They want two starting pitchers, that's what I'm offering.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:52 pm 
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Just so I understand the Machado talk (would love to have him, obviously):


Is the idea to try to win it all hoping the pitching comes together in '18 and then let him walk?


Or that there's a sold enough chance Boras and the Pon's break bread, share some laughs and strike a long term deal?

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 1:54 pm 
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Because I'm not sure about the first one and sure as hell the second one isn't happening..

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:01 pm 
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I don't think he'll sign an extension for any amount of money.

If the Dodgers offer him $500M he'll think the Yankees might offer him $525M in the off season.


8)

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8)


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:10 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
Just so I understand the Machado talk (would love to have him, obviously):


Is the idea to try to win it all hoping the pitching comes together in '18 and then let him walk?


Or that there's a sold enough chance Boras and the Pon's break bread, share some laughs and strike a long term deal?

The Machado talk is about vaulting into being a contender for 2018 bc as currently structured, they probably aren't one. It's about sacrificing assets that either won't derail them from contending in the short run and/or won't make an impact for several years (in the case of a Gimenez). And if it blows up by July, they could always re-deal him to recoup the prospects. But if things worked out and the Mets were to make a playoff run, they would recoup a sandwich round pick in the 2019 draft after making him a QO. Either way, there shouldn't be any sort of paralysis about any prospects the Mets could be giving up in this sort of deal.

So, no, there is no illusion about him signing a long term deal. Of course, anything is possible, but a trade is certainly not predicated on a long term deal coming together.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 2:49 pm 
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I'll add that reaction to the alleged Addison Russell, Albert Almora, Mike Montgomery for Machado offer seems to be that it's generous. But deconstructing that and Russell was a 1.4 win player this season with an 84 RC+, and Almora hasn't been anything more than a bench player and Montgomery struggled as the Cubs 5th SPer. So, what is so special about that offer? Russell is a ML SS but in 3 seasons he hasn't hit more than 94 RC+.

I don't think that's bad value for 1 year of Machado, but I also don't think it's necessarily better than a Mets offer of Gsell, Dunn or Molina and Gimenez.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:00 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
I don't think he'll sign an extension for any amount of money.

If the Dodgers offer him $500M he'll think the Yankees might offer him $525M in the off season.


8)


That's reminiscent of Joe Smith (NBA not MLB in case someone didn't get the reference). At some point it stops being a good gamble.

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 3:18 pm 
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Only problem with getting Machado is that half the people here will spend the season dreaming of trading him for prospects

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 4:37 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I'll add that reaction to the alleged Addison Russell, Albert Almora, Mike Montgomery for Machado offer seems to be that it's generous. But deconstructing that and Russell was a 1.4 win player this season with an 84 RC+, and Almora hasn't been anything more than a bench player and Montgomery struggled as the Cubs 5th SPer. So, what is so special about that offer? Russell is a ML SS but in 3 seasons he hasn't hit more than 94 RC+.

I don't think that's bad value for 1 year of Machado, but I also don't think it's necessarily better than a Mets offer of Gsell, Dunn or Molina and Gimenez.


Russell has 8.2 WAR over his first 400 games, so essentially a 3-WAR pace. Rosario has the years of control in his favor but I think Rosario and Russell would be a wash, or at least a wash once you include Almora. Montgomery I'd equate to Matz value-wise.


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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 8:47 pm 
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I'd like to Rosario the next 6 years in blue and orange.

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 Post subject: Re: You have a net $10 m to spend; how do you do it?
PostPosted: Fri Dec 29, 2017 11:15 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
Only problem with getting Machado is that half the people here will spend the season dreaming of trading him for prospects


That’s because getting Machado will require talent already on the roster and will prevent any additional roster moves. I’d likely be one of those people, simply because it’s unlikely that the team would be good enough to dream of anything else.

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