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Who is #36?
http://www.nyfuturestars.com/community/viewtopic.php?f=1&t=44829
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Author:  HeyNowHK [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 11:52 am ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

Of the RPers still on the board, I think Hanhold appears to be getting overlooked. Apparently had an uptick in velo in the 2nd half and throws a ton of GBs. Should open in the Bingo pen and get plenty of high leverage opportunities.

Author:  HeyNowHK [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 12:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Ralf wrote:
That Quinn Brodey pick was soooooo bad.


I don't think the amount of out-and-out wasted picks in the early rounds gets nearly enough attention here.

We talk a lot about the Gavin Cecchini whiff or the Brandon Nimmo reach, but a huge issue re: where we are in terms of no farm system to promote from or trade from comes from the fact that we don't even produce somewhat exciting "role player" types from the middle rounds.

Criticize the previous regime's love of reaching for relievers, but they got guys like Daniel Murphy, Lucas Duda, Jacob DeGrom, Kirk Niewenhuis, Josh Edgin, Dillon Gee, Jon Niese, Josh Thole, Bobby Parnell, Goeddel, den Dekker -- various degrees of success there, but these are basically throwaway rounds to the current regime and guys like that contributed to winning teams and/or were dealt for guys that did.

Our best examples of these types recently are like Plawecki and Reynolds - who were a 1(c) and 2nd round pick respectively - thats too high to be only getting that quality of player, and then nothing after. There's just nothing coming in year after year to even help fill out the minors' rosters and get lucky with some of these types.

Guys drafted in 2014 in those middle rounds should be starting to make some noise at the top of our system. Instead, here's what we got:

-Milton Ramos (terrible, dumped for int'l pool $)
-Eudor Garcia (released out of A ball)
-Josh Prevost (???)
-Tyler Moore (believe he has been released and resigned a few times to be a 3rd catcher)
-Brad Wieck (somewhat interesting, traded for Alex Torres who lasted 3 months here)
-Dash Winningham (looks likely to spend his career in Columbia)]
-Michael Katz (lasted 1 season)
-Kelly Secrest (mediocre AA reliever)

Thats rounds 3-10. You should get something there. Just a complete waste.

Well, that 14 draft is looking particularly putrid aside from Conforto.

The '11 middle rounds netted Gsell, Lugo and Bradford. '12 and '13 yielded some fringy players like Nido, Oswalt, Boyd, Guillorme, McNeil, McGowan and Bashlor. Still, the only player of that group who might make some impact is prob Bashlor if he falls into a late inning role... tho Oswalt could still end up seeing time at the back of someone's rotation.

The 15 draft looks somewhat better or at least there are still some players ascending like Humphries, Puck, Mazeika and Thompson. Loss of points for failing to sign Tom Hackimer tho. #-o

But generally, yeah not much bounty from the early rounds. It's been pretty dang disappointing on the whole. And while Quinn Brodey isn't dead to me yet and yeah 'nobody hits in Brooklyn,' I haven't heard anyone think he was impressive either. He's going to have to have a pretty big breakout in Cola to get some attention in '18.

Author:  acerimusdux [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 1:44 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

MarkJohnson>You wrote:
His average fastball was 95.1 The MLB average for ALL relievers was 94.4, and if I knew how to filter out RHRP from LHRP, I'm going to guess the RHRP was right around that 95 mark.

So he has essentially average bullpen arm velocity, what appears to be little movement or deception, and no workable secondary pitch right now. Of course there's time for any of the above to change, and having the 95 gets you a seat at the table that he wouldn't get if he was more 92 or 93 ala Kevin McGowan, but still.


Yes, that's accurate. But I think that's what you get on these lists in the mid-30s. And I think the only other pen guys on the list who have that velocity are Bautista and Bashlor. The rest will now be below MLB average velocity for that role.

I also remember similar debates over Familia heading into 2014, after he had moved to the pen, and hadn't look great in MLB in 2013. He flashed better secondaries than Rhame, but lacked command.

Rhame doesn't have as much upside, but we aren't debating him for the top 20. He has velocity and has been decent through AAA. Get a little lucky, and with the right tweak one of those secondaries might click and he ends up a decent 7th inning arm.

Author:  Hot Takes [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:09 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:

He's a good one. I forgot about him.


He hasn't even stepped on a mound as a Met yet, has he?

Nope. Yeah, I don't know what the votes would be for even in this range.


We voted Anthony Kay Top 10 and he's never pitched for the Mets, either. The idea that we need pro samples on guys at this range is odd considering.

Planck has what Kay has: draft pedigree. Planck's bonus was huge. He's got a strong frame, supposedly live fastball, and has upside most don't in this range.

Author:  MarkJohnson>You [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:15 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

Hot Takes wrote:

We voted Anthony Kay Top 10 and he's never pitched for the Mets, either. The idea that we need pro samples on guys at this range is odd considering.

Planck has what Kay has: draft pedigree. Planck's bonus was huge. He's got a strong frame, supposedly live fastball, and has upside most don't in this range.


I think there's quite a bit of difference in the "pedigree" here.

Of course, quite a bit of difference in ranking, so sure, go for it. Just saying, we pretty much know nothing about Planck other than "he signed for $1m." He wasn't a hugely regarded prospect in his draft.

Author:  HeyNowHK [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:23 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

Hot Takes wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

He hasn't even stepped on a mound as a Met yet, has he?

Nope. Yeah, I don't know what the votes would be for even in this range.


We voted Anthony Kay Top 10 and he's never pitched for the Mets, either. The idea that we need pro samples on guys at this range is odd considering.

Planck has what Kay has: draft pedigree. Planck's bonus was huge. He's got a strong frame, supposedly live fastball, and has upside most don't in this range.


For one thing, I didn't have Kay until much further down the list. But in any case TJ has a much better recovery record than does surgery on a shoulder (Planck). On top of which, there was far more to go on in Kay's case (started 39 games in 3 college seasons). Planck was drafted out of HS so there just isn't much to go on. But yeah, if you're just going to say 'well in the late 30s anybody is considered a worthy candidate' then it's fine. I don't have a problem with people voting for anybody they want. But I think it's fair to ask 'why it's justified over player x, y or z' etc.

Author:  Hot Takes [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:32 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:

We voted Anthony Kay Top 10 and he's never pitched for the Mets, either. The idea that we need pro samples on guys at this range is odd considering.

Planck has what Kay has: draft pedigree. Planck's bonus was huge. He's got a strong frame, supposedly live fastball, and has upside most don't in this range.


I think there's quite a bit of difference in the "pedigree" here.

Of course, quite a bit of difference in ranking, so sure, go for it. Just saying, we pretty much know nothing about Planck other than "he signed for $1m." He wasn't a hugely regarded prospect in his draft.


Yeah, different part of the list, different standards for what qualifies as "draft pedigree." For what it's worth, taking a high schooler in the 11th round and giving him a 7-figure bonus to sign him shows that the org must believe in his upside.

And we do know he's a strong 6'3" who touches 95 but has delivery and now injury concerns. Still, to me, that profile fits better in the Top 40 than, say, Winaker or Beccera.

Author:  Hot Takes [ Tue Jan 02, 2018 5:55 pm ]
Post subject:  Re: Who is #36?

Alright, look at the other guys we're discussing right now. Beccera had a miserable 2017, was outrighted off the 40-man even though there are only four other OFs on the roster, and scouts are pretty much giving up on him as a prospect. Quinn Brodey has "average tools across the board" and seems like Kaczmarski-lite to Kazcmarski's Nimmo-lite. Winaker is a 1B/OF who is only a prospect if he taps into power we haven't seen yet. Sanchez and Guerrero have both flopped at the pro level and would be getting spots at this point because of IFA pedigree. I like Carpio more than those guys.

I like McNeil and McGeorge well enough in this range but after that besides maybe a guy like Boyd or Hanhold I think it's time to start voting for guys from recent drafts who have upside. I like Bryce Hutchinson in this range as well as Planck.

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