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?
Poll ended at Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:56 pm
Wuilmer Becerra (OF) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Jeff McNeil (UTIL) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Ali Sanchez (C) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Quinn Brodey (OF) 25%  25%  [ 5 ]
Jayce Boyd (1B) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Austin McGeorge (RHP) 10%  10%  [ 2 ]
Matt Pobereyko (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Matt Winaker (1b) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Gregory Guerrero (SS) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Ryder Ryan (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 20
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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:06 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Where did this "nobody hits in Brooklyn" thing come from? The actual prospects we've had go through Brooklyn, for the most part, have hit. Alonso and Lindsay dominated in 2016. Conforto and Urena hit well in 2014. Rosario held his own at 18 in 2014. Nimmo and Cecchini hit well there in 2012. Taijeron and Muno in 2011. Vaughn and Ceciliani in 2010. I could go on.

Honestly the only recent "legit" prospect we've had who looked lost in Brooklyn has been Thompson. Bringing up Murphy in Brooklyn is odd considering that's a 34 PA sample. I'd bet on Brodey being more similar to Paez, Tiberi, Oberste, Sienna, Woodmansee, and the long-list of non-prospects that didn't hit in Brooklyn than the aforementioned guys.


I think everyone still remembers the infamous Ike Davis 0-HR campaign in Brooklyn.

But yeah, over the years - as the Cyclones started in 2001, going through the eventual major leaguers who played there:

2001: Angel Pagan hit well (as did Mike Jacobs in a tiny 70 AB sample)
2002 - 2004: had no future MLs
2005: saw Nick Evans have a decent year as a 19 yr old; Drew Butera on the other hand struggled
2006: no future MLs
2007: Lucas Duda crushed it there. 20 yr old Zeke Carrera had a short stint where he hit an empty .300 in 70 ABs.
2008: Kirk, Josh Satin and Zack Lutz all did pretty well. Ike Davis, as we know, didn't. Eric Campbell was decidedly Eric Campbell-ish.
2009: a 19 yr old Juan Centeno struggled mightily in his 120 ABs.
2010: Darrell Ceciliani was basically the MVP of the NYP league, and a 20 yr old Juan Centeno bounced all the way back and hit .371!
2011: Danny Muno and Travis Taijeron killed it, and a late cameo from UDFA TJ Rivera was similarly successful in 70ish ABs.
2012: Phil Evans struggled, while Nimmo and Plawecki both were fine (.778 and .730 OPS, respectively)
2013: Gavin Cecchini and Tomas Nido both really struggled.
2014: Michael Conforto crushed it, and especially considering he was barely 18, Amed Rosario was quite impressive.

From there forward you're limited to guys still in the minors.

So as far as "everyone struggles in Brooklyn" - yes, provided you're talking about guys who never made it. Most guys who made it - even briefly in the cases of Taijeron and Muno - were pretty good there. To find examples of guys who were really bad in Brooklyn - and yeah, Brodey and Winaker and guys like Woodmansee, Tiberi and Paez the year before were really bad - and rebounded to "make it", you're looking at a sample of essentially Drew Butera (who wouldn't have made it if he weren't a catcher), Ike Davis, a 19 year old Juan Centeno (but remember - a 20 yr old Juan Centeno crushed the level) and Phil Evans. I guess you can also look to Eric Campbell's .720 OPS there as inspiration that being a bit worse than Eric Campbell may still be on the table for some of these guys.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:23 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Honestly the only recent "legit" prospect we've had who looked lost in Brooklyn has been Thompson. Bringing up Murphy in Brooklyn is odd considering that's a 34 PA sample. I'd bet on Brodey being more similar to Paez, Tiberi, Oberste, Sienna, Woodmansee, and the long-list of non-prospects that didn't hit in Brooklyn than the aforementioned guys.


Yeah, that's a good point. For some reason, I think it was maybe lefties who were supposed to struggle, but I'm not sure that was really true either. That was true in the park they used to be in in Savannah in the SAL, but I don't know that there would be any special reason for it to be so in Brooklyn. I think it was Ike Davis who especially struggled there. But that's some time ago and I don't know that there was really any trend.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:28 pm 
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Bryce Hutchinson and Cameron Planck are the most interesting arms left but, yes, they haven't pitched. But they're certainly more interesting than Chadwick and the like. I'd go for Andrew Church over those guys.

Jose Miguel Medina is probably the most interesting position player at the lower levels, but I think him, LaGrange, and Terrazas all belong in this range.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:50 pm 
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Is Kenneth Bautista a candidate for the top 50?

6 months younger than Granadillo and had a better year. Enough tools for a corner and supposed to have some good power potential down the road.



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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 3:57 pm 
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I didn't mean to imply that age is automatically a disqualifier, but I think being 22 with barely having gotten past the Appy seems to indicate there isn't much to go on. It doesn't mean that no one past 22 can be a prospect so there was no reason to take that leap.

Other notes here...
Practically half our list so far is RPers (ok, a quarter). I shudder to think what this list looks like w/o them. And if you prefer RPers being "failed SPers" than I would think Harol Gonzalez might have some solid value for you. And about a year and a half ahead of Lagrange per comparable level.

Hanhold was 23 this season (repeating) A+. He was 21 in A and so effectively still a year (or more) ahead of Lagrange. Anyhoo, I think this guy has been missed and is going to be pretty good. He'll be 24 in Bingo and that seems pretty age appropriate.

Paez - this was his age 22 season and he spent the 2nd half of it in A+. He didn't do well there but arguably got badly babiped... batted ball profile still looks good... good control of the K zone and only 33% GBs.

Prevost - didn't have a bad year unless you want to call recovering from TJ a bad year. But a SPer with size who yields a lot of GBs and throws strikes merits a spot in this range to me, but is definitely the one that you can question based on age (will be 26 this month).

Otherwise, I think there are some RPers worth getting consideration in the 40s from this group. That said, it's possible a Lagrange should get some also.


on edit: Kuhns was the other guy I wanted to mention... went down with TJ mid year. This was his age 22 season and was a good candidate to get promoted and pitch the 2nd half in PSL. Was a Saly all star selection this year. Can supposedly dial it up to the mid 90s. But he's likely out until 2019.

And while I was not a big Tiberi fan, he was 33 on the pre-2017 list and missed the year with TJ so he can't have fallen completely off a theoretical bad system list simply for having TJ, can he?


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:54 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Where did this "nobody hits in Brooklyn" thing come from? The actual prospects we've had go through Brooklyn, for the most part, have hit. Alonso and Lindsay dominated in 2016. Conforto and Urena hit well in 2014. Rosario held his own at 18 in 2014. Nimmo and Cecchini hit well there in 2012. Taijeron and Muno in 2011. Vaughn and Ceciliani in 2010. I could go on.

Honestly the only recent "legit" prospect we've had who looked lost in Brooklyn has been Thompson. Bringing up Murphy in Brooklyn is odd considering that's a 34 PA sample. I'd bet on Brodey being more similar to Paez, Tiberi, Oberste, Sienna, Woodmansee, and the long-list of non-prospects that didn't hit in Brooklyn than the aforementioned guys.


I was the one who said that and I believe I said "almost nobody", but maybe I sand nobody, I meant that many college guys don't. (and Den Dekker, Cory Vaughn and (if memory serves) Ceciliani all crushed Brooklyn, but that was several years ago).

Alonso hit well in Brooklyn but he's a plus bat. Lindsay, despite this year's struggles, is a solid bat and he'd had an entire half year of extended spring training to see minor-league breaking balls.

It's the 3rd round and later college guys who, at least recently, haven't hit well in Brooklyn and league wide it's a low OPS league and an even lower OPS stadium. I think players should get a small mulligan if they OPS .620 in Brooklyn out of college. At least wait and see how they look in Columbia before bumping them off the top 50.

and - HK, you're right about Chadwick and Brooklyn - not sure why I saw Kingsport when I looked. He had good numbers, but his issue, a high walk rate, was still there. If he gets his bit of inconsistency and finding the plate under control, he could be interesting, at least in a relief pitcher with a shot kind of way.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 4:58 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Is Kenneth Bautista a candidate for the top 50?

6 months younger than Granadillo and had a better year. Enough tools for a corner and supposed to have some good power potential down the road.



Is there any word on his glove, his tools other than power and his body? If he gets at least average grades in other areas I think he's got a shot. If he's all power and no glove then probably not.

I have no idea which he is though. Nobody (cept maybe BA) writes these guys up anymore.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:04 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
acerimusdux wrote:
Speaking of hitting in Brooklyn though, I guess I'd like to nominate Wagner LaGrange who did hit in Brooklyn.

Really? We're talking already 22 and just 13 games above rookie ball.

He's only 3 months older than Brodey. And he actually hit this year (though mostly Kingsport). I just think there's a combination there of tools and performance that most of these other guys aren't showing.

and yes so Brodey would be a year ahead of Lagrange plus the 3 years of major college ball under his belt so should be quite a bit more polished. Then again, I wasn't really advocating for Brodey either. I liked the pick at the time but he didn't impress me much when I saw him in Brooklyn but that was a brief look, and so he's certainly not dead to me yet. He's probably adequately ranked in the late 30s or early 40s.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:06 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Where did this "nobody hits in Brooklyn" thing come from? The actual prospects we've had go through Brooklyn, for the most part, have hit. Alonso and Lindsay dominated in 2016. Conforto and Urena hit well in 2014. Rosario held his own at 18 in 2014. Nimmo and Cecchini hit well there in 2012. Taijeron and Muno in 2011. Vaughn and Ceciliani in 2010. I could go on.

Honestly the only recent "legit" prospect we've had who looked lost in Brooklyn has been Thompson. Bringing up Murphy in Brooklyn is odd considering that's a 34 PA sample. I'd bet on Brodey being more similar to Paez, Tiberi, Oberste, Sienna, Woodmansee, and the long-list of non-prospects that didn't hit in Brooklyn than the aforementioned guys.


I was the one who said that and I believe I said "almost nobody", but maybe I sand nobody, I meant that many college guys don't. (and Den Dekker, Cory Vaughn and (if memory serves) Ceciliani all crushed Brooklyn, but that was several years ago).

Alonso hit well in Brooklyn but he's a plus bat. Lindsay, despite this year's struggles, is a solid bat and he'd had an entire half year of extended spring training to see minor-league breaking balls.

It's the 3rd round and later college guys who, at least recently, haven't hit well in Brooklyn and league wide it's a low OPS league and an even lower OPS stadium. I think players should get a small mulligan if they OPS .620 in Brooklyn out of college. At least wait and see how they look in Columbia before bumping them off the top 50.

and - HK, you're right about Chadwick and Brooklyn - not sure why I saw Kingsport when I looked. He had good numbers, but his issue, a high walk rate, was still there. If he gets his bit of inconsistency and finding the plate under control, he could be interesting, at least in a relief pitcher with a shot kind of way.


Look above.

The fact that recent college prospects in middle rounds haven't hit well in Brooklyn isn't really solace for the most recent draft class not hitting well there given the historical precedent.

Pointing to Michael Paez' struggles as a reason for a Quinn Brodey mulligan only works if you think Michael Paez is likely to succeed - and given the lack of success those who didn't hit in Brooklyn achieved - or conversely, the level of success achieved by those who wound up actually "making it" - it really only serves to confirm Paez as a similar level of longshot/non prospect.

The guys who come through Brooklyn and make it, even in a cup-of-coffee sense - have overwhelmingly found some degree of success there. There's just not a population of 21/22 year olds who struggled mightly in Brooklyn but rebounded to go to do good things - other than Ike Davis.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:09 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Is there any word on his glove, his tools other than power and his body? If he gets at least average grades in other areas I think he's got a shot. If he's all power and no glove then probably not.

I have no idea which he is though. Nobody (cept maybe BA) writes these guys up anymore.


Certainly hope for the sake of the guy with the .210/.298/.321 career slash line through his first 3 rookie ball seasons he has more to draw on than "all power."


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:33 pm 
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btw, when does Jannis begin to get consideration? Looking more and more like he sees Queens this year.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:41 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Bryce Hutchinson and Cameron Planck are the most interesting arms left but, yes, they haven't pitched. But they're certainly more interesting than Chadwick and the like. I'd go for Andrew Church over those guys.

Jose Miguel Medina is probably the most interesting position player at the lower levels, but I think him, LaGrange, and Terrazas all belong in this range.


And the most interesting position player left in full season ball is probably Luis Carpio. He's probably still a better prospect than anyone we've just discussed.

In fact I think I'd like to table my nomination of Lagrange and nominate Carpio instead, first.


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