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?
Poll ended at Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:56 pm
Wuilmer Becerra (OF) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Jeff McNeil (UTIL) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Ali Sanchez (C) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Quinn Brodey (OF) 25%  25%  [ 5 ]
Jayce Boyd (1B) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Austin McGeorge (RHP) 10%  10%  [ 2 ]
Matt Pobereyko (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Matt Winaker (1b) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Gregory Guerrero (SS) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Ryder Ryan (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 20
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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:42 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
btw, when does Jannis begin to get consideration? Looking more and more like he sees Queens this year.

Yes, I'd like to see him up there soon, as well.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:56 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Is there any word on his glove, his tools other than power and his body? If he gets at least average grades in other areas I think he's got a shot. If he's all power and no glove then probably not.

I have no idea which he is though. Nobody (cept maybe BA) writes these guys up anymore.


Certainly hope for the sake of the guy with the .210/.298/.321 career slash line through his first 3 rookie ball seasons he has more to draw on than "all power."


To be fair, he hit lousy his first two years and hit pretty well this year, but repeating the league twice makes putting up solid numbers a bit easier.

. . . I thought this was his 2nd year. 3 years in GCL is a lot. OK, lets not nominate him. I agree with the Jannis and Carparchio suggestions.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 5:56 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Where did this "nobody hits in Brooklyn" thing come from? The actual prospects we've had go through Brooklyn, for the most part, have hit. Alonso and Lindsay dominated in 2016. Conforto and Urena hit well in 2014. Rosario held his own at 18 in 2014. Nimmo and Cecchini hit well there in 2012. Taijeron and Muno in 2011. Vaughn and Ceciliani in 2010. I could go on.

Honestly the only recent "legit" prospect we've had who looked lost in Brooklyn has been Thompson. Bringing up Murphy in Brooklyn is odd considering that's a 34 PA sample. I'd bet on Brodey being more similar to Paez, Tiberi, Oberste, Sienna, Woodmansee, and the long-list of non-prospects that didn't hit in Brooklyn than the aforementioned guys.


I was the one who said that and I believe I said "almost nobody", but maybe I sand nobody, I meant that many college guys don't. (and Den Dekker, Cory Vaughn and (if memory serves) Ceciliani all crushed Brooklyn, but that was several years ago).

Alonso hit well in Brooklyn but he's a plus bat. Lindsay, despite this year's struggles, is a solid bat and he'd had an entire half year of extended spring training to see minor-league breaking balls.

It's the 3rd round and later college guys who, at least recently, haven't hit well in Brooklyn and league wide it's a low OPS league and an even lower OPS stadium. I think players should get a small mulligan if they OPS .620 in Brooklyn out of college. At least wait and see how they look in Columbia before bumping them off the top 50.

and - HK, you're right about Chadwick and Brooklyn - not sure why I saw Kingsport when I looked. He had good numbers, but his issue, a high walk rate, was still there. If he gets his bit of inconsistency and finding the plate under control, he could be interesting, at least in a relief pitcher with a shot kind of way.

But most college bats who have amounted to even a cup of coffee did hit in Brooklyn. Sure, there have been guys who didn't hit in Brooklyn, but those guys usually don't hit elsewhere. Ike, and now maybe Thompson, are the only reasonable exceptions. So using Brooklyn being some kind of hitter's graveyard isn't a good reason to be optimistic about Brodey unless you're admitting Brodey more likely than not a non-prospect.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:04 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
btw, when does Jannis begin to get consideration? Looking more and more like he sees Queens this year.


You think? We'd have to go through a bunch of starters to get to him -- there are 11 guys in front of him on the 40-man (Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman, Lugo, Montero, Flexen, Molina, Oswalt) and even if we burn through all those guys I'm not sure he gets a call before Knapp, Conlon, whoever we pick up off waivers, etc. I can't see Jannis getting a bullpen look.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:12 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
Bryce Hutchinson and Cameron Planck are the most interesting arms left but, yes, they haven't pitched. But they're certainly more interesting than Chadwick and the like. I'd go for Andrew Church over those guys.

Jose Miguel Medina is probably the most interesting position player at the lower levels, but I think him, LaGrange, and Terrazas all belong in this range.


And the most interesting position player left in full season ball is probably Luis Carpio. He's probably still a better prospect than anyone we've just discussed.


OK, this is based on what? As a 2B only profile, doesn't he have to flash more bat for that? Had 24 XBHs in 125 games this year in the SALY, OPSing 610 (596 in the 2nd half) and hitting a lot of balls on the ground.

How is Carpio ahead of Michael Paez who basically killed it in the SALY (31 XBHs in half the games Carpio played) before running into some bad luck in PSL?

Granted there is a 2+ yr age difference, but there would be a lot of projecting of Carpio in order to make up the ground. If he was still viable at SS, I think the profile looks a lot better. For a 2B only, this looks pretty sketchy to me.

OK, apparently he played 27 games at SS this year (tho 8 errors fwiw), so allow me to recant that. :D

Still needs a lot more projecting to get to a ML profile I'd think but not terribly egregious in the 40s I suppose.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 6:23 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

OK, this is based on what? As a 2B only profile, doesn't he have to flash more bat for that? Had 24 XBHs in 125 games this year in the SALY, OPSing 610 (596 in the 2nd half) and hitting a lot of balls on the ground.

How is Carpio ahead of Michael Paez who basically killed it in the SALY (31 XBHs in half the games Carpio played) before running into some bad luck in PSL?

Granted there is a 2+ yr age difference, but there would be a lot of projecting of Carpio in order to make up the ground. If he was still viable at SS, I think the profile looks a lot better. For a 2B only, this looks pretty sketchy to me.


Here's a fun stat. Carpio's 5 months younger than Granadillo. :lol:

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:21 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
How is Carpio ahead of Michael Paez who basically killed it in the SALY (31 XBHs in half the games Carpio played) before running into some bad luck in PSL?

That's one xbh for every month difference in age. :)

Seriously, 2.5 years really is a big difference at that level.

And Paez killled it in 64 games there, but then went to A+ for 63 games where he hit worse than Carpio did in the SAL. For the full season Paez hit .246 with a .742 OPS. When he's an age where he should have been in A+ already, I'm not giving too much weight to what he did only in the SAL.

I also think there's a big difference in tools. To start, one guy is 5'7", the other 5'11". And I think there's a gap there defensively as well. I'd base that more on previous scouting, but if you want numbers, Carpio had a 4.60 RF/9 at 2B vs 3.62 for Paez, while playing for the same team. At SS it was 4.21 vs. 2.79. Also on the season, 17 SB w/ 5 CS vs. 9 SB w/ 10 CS.

Carpio was coming off an injury last year and was still getting ranked in our top twenty coming into the season. His report on mlb.com said "He has the defensive skills to stay at short, with good hands and what should be enough arm to stay there if needed, but he'll likely start out at second base, at least to ease his shoulder back into things." So that's likely the reason he played mostly 2B. Yes his stock is down some after this year, but he looks pretty good right now in the 30s (and I think maybe should have still made the top 30).


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 5:19 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
How is Carpio ahead of Michael Paez who basically killed it in the SALY (31 XBHs in half the games Carpio played) before running into some bad luck in PSL?



And Paez killled it in 64 games there, but then went to A+ for 63 games where he hit worse than Carpio did in the SAL. For the full season Paez hit .246 with a .742 OPS. When he's an age where he should have been in A+ already, I'm not giving too much weight to what he did only in the SAL.

I also think there's a big difference in tools. To start, one guy is 5'7", the other 5'11". And I think there's a gap there defensively as well. I'd base that more on previous scouting, but if you want numbers, Carpio had a 4.60 RF/9 at 2B vs 3.62 for Paez, while playing for the same team. At SS it was 4.21 vs. 2.79. Also on the season, 17 SB w/ 5 CS vs. 9 SB w/ 10 CS.

Carpio was coming off an injury last year and was still getting ranked in our top twenty coming into the season. His report on mlb.com said "He has the defensive skills to stay at short, with good hands and what should be enough arm to stay there if needed, but he'll likely start out at second base, at least to ease his shoulder back into things." So that's likely the reason he played mostly 2B. Yes his stock is down some after this year, but he looks pretty good right now in the 30s (and I think maybe should have still made the top 30).


I feel like this is the Ali Sanchez conversation all over again. Saying that age and defensive chops are the carrying tools for Carpio sounds great now but he's going to have to show some stick eventually, otherwise this is nothing but a UT upside. Longenhagen has him with 30 raw power. And as far as playing SS, I'm going to venture to say that as long as he's playing in the same IF as Gimenez, Carpio is going to play 2B. So I just don't see the path for him at SS with Rosario and then Gimenez following. And at 2B, secondary skills alone aren't likely enough to get him anywhere.

And as to Paez, as I mentioned in an earlier post, his poor results in StLuc appear to be babip related. His batted ball profile still appeared to be strong. I don't know where to access it but his xwOBA was likely much better than his FSL results. But obviously even he's going to flame out quickly if he doesn't hit in 2018. Going to assume he starts out in StLuc and acclimates to it. And A+ is an age appropriate level for Paez in 2018.

And btw height is not a tool. If we were talking about a pitcher or 1Bman, I might care about height. For a MIer, it's pretty irrelevant, but assuming that is a reference to potential lack of pop, Paez has already hit 12 pro HRs in 1.5 seasons (after hitting 25 at Coastal Carolina) so not much concern there. Bottom line is that Paez's secondary skills may be behind Carpio's but it's the stick that will get either a seat at the table.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 7:25 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

I feel like this is the Ali Sanchez conversation all over again. Saying that age and defensive chops are the carrying tools for Carpio sounds great now but he's going to have to show some stick eventually, otherwise this is nothing but a UT upside. Longenhagen has him with 30 raw power. And as far as playing SS, I'm going to venture to say that as long as he's playing in the same IF as Gimenez, Carpio is going to play 2B. So I just don't see the path for him at SS with Rosario and then Gimenez following. And at 2B, secondary skills alone aren't likely enough to get him anywhere.

And as to Paez, as I mentioned in an earlier post, his poor results in StLuc appear to be babip related. His batted ball profile still appeared to be strong. I don't know where to access it but his xwOBA was likely much better than his FSL results. But obviously even he's going to flame out quickly if he doesn't hit in 2018. Going to assume he starts out in StLuc and acclimates to it. And A+ is an age appropriate level for Paez in 2018.

And btw height is not a tool. If we were talking about a pitcher or 1Bman, I might care about height. For a MIer, it's pretty irrelevant, but assuming that is a reference to potential lack of pop, Paez has already hit 12 pro HRs in 1.5 seasons (after hitting 25 at Coastal Carolina) so not much concern there. Bottom line is that Paez's secondary skills may be behind Carpio's but it's the stick that will get either a seat at the table.


Height might not be a tool, but it's a consideration.

Paez was a nice HS player who went undrafted. If he'd been 2 inches taller he'd have probably gotten selected. He also couldn't get a scholarship to his preferred state schools.

Is height a deal breaker - no, but people consider it a factor.

All that said, I hope you're right about Paez. He's off to an interesting start and I think his stock is up, but I won't really be a believer until he hits in AA. If he does that, I might give him top 25 consideration. For now, he's around 40 for me, with a keep watching footnote. I think Paez and Carpio are pretty similar prospect value wise. Both are kind of long shots. Carpio was a top 10 guy 2 years ago but the injury and lack of pop at the plate this year hurt him, but he could bounce back next year. Jeff McNeil is kind of similar I think, but he's closer and he may be able to play OF as well as infield, which gives him a plus. Evans is in the mix also I think, but he's farther along. I see all 4 of those guys as kind of similar infielders in terms of value. 30-40 range due to all being long-shots at having legit major league careers. I don't see any of them as "he could be a nice player - which is how I feel about David Thompson for example). Just my opinion.

I also want to give you props for noticing Granardillo. While he's a little older for GCL, his average and stolen base combo is a little interesting. He could still be the next Enmanual Zabala, but his stats are solid. I wouldn't put him in the top 50 without some kind of praise in a writeup though. GCL stats don't mean all that much especially for a guy a year older.

on Sanchez. He's still a plus glove (BA said so recently). He's just got a lot of work to do with the bat. Catcher is the hardest position to fill, so I still like Sanchez, at least for a top 40 guy.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 8:31 pm 
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Remember when Luis Carpio was a top 10 guy despite having Ruben Tejada scouting reports (pre-injury)?

And that was when we had a better system.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:04 pm 
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Some scouts really seemed to believe in Carpio's bat.

And, you know, I wouldn't completely write him off yet. He's more interesting than Paez considering the only tool where Paez has Carpio beat is power and that's not surprising given the age difference.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:44 pm 
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Normalizing Paez's babip in the FSL and his batting line prob shoots up to nearly .800 and a wOBA in the 360 range. He had the 2nd lowest babip in the league. The offensive potential is prob reason enough for a top 30 ranking in this group.


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