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?
Poll ended at Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:56 pm
Wuilmer Becerra (OF) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Jeff McNeil (UTIL) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Ali Sanchez (C) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Quinn Brodey (OF) 25%  25%  [ 5 ]
Jayce Boyd (1B) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Austin McGeorge (RHP) 10%  10%  [ 2 ]
Matt Pobereyko (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Matt Winaker (1b) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Gregory Guerrero (SS) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Ryder Ryan (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 20
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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Thu Jan 04, 2018 9:59 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
btw, when does Jannis begin to get consideration? Looking more and more like he sees Queens this year.


You think? We'd have to go through a bunch of starters to get to him -- there are 11 guys in front of him on the 40-man (Thor, deGrom, Harvey, Matz, Wheeler, Gsellman, Lugo, Montero, Flexen, Molina, Oswalt) and even if we burn through all those guys I'm not sure he gets a call before Knapp, Conlon, whoever we pick up off waivers, etc. I can't see Jannis getting a bullpen look.

Yeah bc assuming one or more of the above get moved, with normal attrition during the season, they'd prob give Jannis a shot before using an option up on Conlon. And Jannis is prob ahead of Knapp at this point anyway. Supposedly had a pretty good AFL. I mean, yeah theoretically they'd turn to the 3 already on the 40 - Flex, Molina or Oswalt - but after that I think Jannis may be next up.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:34 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Remember when Luis Carpio was a top 10 guy despite having Ruben Tejada scouting reports (pre-injury)?

And that was when we had a better system.


I don't think that's fair. Tejada was projected to be more of a 2nd baseman in the minors and he was always a slap hitter. Carpio, according to guys at Amazin Avenue, made good hard contact and had the glove and arm for SS (pre-injury). There was some praise above and beyond Tejada.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/1/20/ ... arpio-2016

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 2:42 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Remember when Luis Carpio was a top 10 guy despite having Ruben Tejada scouting reports (pre-injury)?

And that was when we had a better system.


I don't think that's fair. Tejada was projected to be more of a 2nd baseman in the minors and he was always a slap hitter. Carpio, according to guys at Amazin Avenue, made good hard contact and had the glove and arm for SS (pre-injury). There was some praise above and beyond Tejada.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/1/20/ ... arpio-2016

You're referring to a blog, not a scouting report. Even Jeff calls him likely a 40.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 4:57 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

You're referring to a blog, not a scouting report. Even Jeff calls him likely a 40.


So when he worked at amazin Avenue he was bloging and now he's scouting?

He wrote the write-up after seeing him play. It was genuine scouting by a guy who does this at least somewhat professionally (not for teams, but he makes money writing up what he sees about prospects).

He might say he's 40s now, he also says that he looks completely different now than how he looked 2 years ago. That's an outright silly point to make. Jeff says clear as day that he's not as interesting as he was.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 5:13 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:

You're referring to a blog, not a scouting report. Even Jeff calls him likely a 40.


So when he worked at amazin Avenue he was bloging and now he's scouting?

He wrote the write-up after seeing him play. It was genuine scouting by a guy who does this at least somewhat professionally (not for teams, but he makes money writing up what he sees about prospects).

He might say he's 40s now, he also says that he looks completely different now than how he looked 2 years ago. That's an outright silly point to make. Jeff says clear as day that he's not as interesting as he was.

No. JeffP called Carpio's "likely outcome" a 40 in July 2015.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/7/7/8 ... ing-report

I don't know who you're referring to in the 1st two paras above. The piece you linked was something from AA and someone named Greg Karam who I guess is a blogger. In his piece was a link to the Jeff "scouting report" from July 2015.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:18 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

No. JeffP called Carpio's "likely outcome" a 40 in July 2015.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/7/7/8 ... ing-report

I don't know who you're referring to in the 1st two paras above. The piece you linked was something from AA and someone named Greg Karam who I guess is a blogger. In his piece was a link to the Jeff "scouting report" from July 2015.


OK, I thought you meant ranked around 40. (He was ranked 6 and Jeff P even said he considered ranking him 3 I read somewhere).

Quote:
The optimistic projection
55: Solid everyday player

The likely outcome
40: Utility infielder


For a guy in Kingsport, a likely outcome of 40 is a compliment.

The write-up is different than Tejada too - which is what got us started on this.

Quote:
Carpio's approach and ability at the plate would be rare at this level from a just-drafted college junior; he is the same age as a high school junior. The swing is very sound mechanically. He employs an open stance with a simple toe tap to close. He almost squats a bit as he loads his hands, and then explodes short and quick to the ball. He maintains his balance well, and despite his size the ball already jumps off his bat a bit. He works gap-to-gap on fastballs, and he can already track and stay back on sliders. You almost never see this in short-season baseball from batters of any age.

Carpio isn't strong enough to do much more than spray line drives right now, but I do see some power potential here. He should fill out a bit more in his upper body, and as he gets stronger those balls will start carrying into the gap.


Jeff P said he doesn't see the pop this year that he saw and liked 2 years ago, but maybe Carpio can bounce back. Carpio did lead Columbia in walks this year. He's got the mature approach at the plate going for him.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 10:39 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
I feel like this is the Ali Sanchez conversation all over again. Saying that age and defensive chops are the carrying tools for Carpio sounds great now but he's going to have to show some stick eventually, otherwise this is nothing but a UT upside.

Yeah, that's fair, but I think I like Sanchez more than most guys on the poll right now, anyway. I mean, both guys are in danger of turning into Becerra in a couple more years if the results don't improve, but both guys were still young enough and only in their first look at full-season ball. At this point, it could still easily go the other way. If they repeat a level and still show no progress, then maybe they are topping out.

I mean, Urena for example, is up there on the list as a 23-year old, after good numbers in A+, despite it being his third attempt at the level.


HeyNowHK wrote:
And btw height is not a tool. If we were talking about a pitcher or 1Bman, I might care about height. For a MIer, it's pretty irrelevant, but assuming that is a reference to potential lack of pop, Paez has already hit 12 pro HRs in 1.5 seasons (after hitting 25 at Coastal Carolina) so not much concern there. Bottom line is that Paez's secondary skills may be behind Carpio's but it's the stick that will get either a seat at the table.


Well you were the guy saying Guillorme had a "bad body" because he was a stocky 5'9". I can see where you'd be more picky in the top 10 than around 40, and it's not that big a deal here that Paez isn't likely to be bigger than 5'7" 180lbs. or thereabouts, but I thought it was one significant difference from Carpio.

I can see Paez somewhere soon, though. The argument isn't that different from Brodey. Good college bat who was a Cape Cod All-Star, so maybe his pro line so far (.230/.328/.361 for Paez) doesn't fully reflect who he really is.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:04 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Well you were the guy saying Guillorme had a "bad body" because he was a stocky 5'9". I can see where you'd be more picky in the top 10 than around 40, and it's not that big a deal here that Paez isn't likely to be bigger than 5'7" 180lbs. or thereabouts, but I thought it was one significant difference from Carpio.


I mentioned Guillorme's body bc he's almost certainly maxed out physically and still has just barely flashed doubles power. I don't see the parallel to either of the players we're discussing.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 2:40 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:

No. JeffP called Carpio's "likely outcome" a 40 in July 2015.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2015/7/7/8 ... ing-report

I don't know who you're referring to in the 1st two paras above. The piece you linked was something from AA and someone named Greg Karam who I guess is a blogger. In his piece was a link to the Jeff "scouting report" from July 2015.


OK, I thought you meant ranked around 40. (He was ranked 6 and Jeff P even said he considered ranking him 3 I read somewhere).

Quote:
The optimistic projection
55: Solid everyday player

The likely outcome
40: Utility infielder


For a guy in Kingsport, a likely outcome of 40 is a compliment.

The write-up is different than Tejada too - which is what got us started on this.

Quote:
Carpio's approach and ability at the plate would be rare at this level from a just-drafted college junior; he is the same age as a high school junior. The swing is very sound mechanically. He employs an open stance with a simple toe tap to close. He almost squats a bit as he loads his hands, and then explodes short and quick to the ball. He maintains his balance well, and despite his size the ball already jumps off his bat a bit. He works gap-to-gap on fastballs, and he can already track and stay back on sliders. You almost never see this in short-season baseball from batters of any age.

Carpio isn't strong enough to do much more than spray line drives right now, but I do see some power potential here. He should fill out a bit more in his upper body, and as he gets stronger those balls will start carrying into the gap.


Jeff P said he doesn't see the pop this year that he saw and liked 2 years ago, but maybe Carpio can bounce back. Carpio did lead Columbia in walks this year. He's got the mature approach at the plate going for him.


I’m pretty sure you’re even overplaying the Carpio -Tejada stuff in Carpios favor here even as you try to defend Carpio - Carpios UPSIDE was Tejada. He’s almost certainly not going to have a Tejada career at this point. That’s be like a 98 percentile outcome for him.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 3:34 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

I’m pretty sure you’re even overplaying the Carpio -Tejada stuff in Carpios favor here even as you try to defend Carpio - Carpios UPSIDE was Tejada. He’s almost certainly not going to have a Tejada career at this point. That’s be like a 98 percentile outcome for him.


I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this. I never saw Carpio play in Kingsport, so I only have the occasional write-up to go on, but Jeff P saw a 17 year old with a solid glove and a very advanced approach at the plate who made solid contact and he saw a talent.

Tejada was a "fun" prospect mostly cause he was young and he hit .280 in the minors a few times. I've heard him called a sleeper, I never heard anyone praise his talent the way Jeff P praised Carpio.

Now, maybe Jeff P is tired of his 2015 writeup constantly being referenced. I'm a little tired of referencing it, but I don't like the Tejada comp. I don't think it's right and I think it's overused. Nobody ever saw Tejada developing power. He didn't have the body for it or the bat speed or the approach. I've heard people make Gimenez/Tejada comps meanwhile, Gimenez has 10-15 homer power potential, which Tejada never came close to.

If Carpio (2015) was a Tejada level prospect, at least call him Tejada with more power and louder contact, cause without that footnote I don't think it's right.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:21 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

I’m pretty sure you’re even overplaying the Carpio -Tejada stuff in Carpios favor here even as you try to defend Carpio - Carpios UPSIDE was Tejada. He’s almost certainly not going to have a Tejada career at this point. That’s be like a 98 percentile outcome for him.


I think we're going to have to agree to disagree on this. I never saw Carpio play in Kingsport, so I only have the occasional write-up to go on, but Jeff P saw a 17 year old with a solid glove and a very advanced approach at the plate who made solid contact and he saw a talent.

Tejada was a "fun" prospect mostly cause he was young and he hit .280 in the minors a few times. I've heard him called a sleeper, I never heard anyone praise his talent the way Jeff P praised Carpio.

Now, maybe Jeff P is tired of his 2015 writeup constantly being referenced. I'm a little tired of referencing it, but I don't like the Tejada comp. I don't think it's right and I think it's overused. Nobody ever saw Tejada developing power. He didn't have the body for it or the bat speed or the approach. I've heard people make Gimenez/Tejada comps meanwhile, Gimenez has 10-15 homer power potential, which Tejada never came close to.

If Carpio (2015) was a Tejada level prospect, at least call him Tejada with more power and louder contact, cause without that footnote I don't think it's right.



You’re putting way too much stock in projections that have low likelihood of happening for one reason or another (development, health, just a scouting miss).

You can’t say he’s Tejada with more pop or “louder contact” whatever that means. He had a .300 slugging percentage in low A ball at the age Tejada was IN THE MAJORS. Tejada was a league average starter by the next season- Carpio will be, what, repeating Columbia?

The Tejada comp was made many a time- I’m not inventing it. He was an advanced approach guy who wasn’t really a plus athlete for an up the middle player- someone who’s ability to not have a huge glaring weakness would carry him more than any specific tool.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 4:29 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

You’re putting way too much stock in projections that have low likelihood of happening for one reason or another (development, health, just a scouting miss).

You can’t say he’s Tejada with more pop or “louder contact” whatever that means. He had a .300 slugging percentage in low A ball at the age Tejada was IN THE MAJORS. Tejada was a league average starter by the next season- Carpio will be, what, repeating Columbia?

The Tejada comp was made many a time- I’m not inventing it. He was an advanced approach guy who wasn’t really a plus athlete for an up the middle player- someone who’s ability to not have a huge glaring weakness would carry him more than any specific tool.


Again, we're going to have to agree to disagree. Prospect ranking is all about projections and tools. Box-score scouting is bad scouting.

Did you read the Jeff P write-up. He mentions hard contact like 3 times. Find me one time somebody said that about Tejada.

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