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?
Poll ended at Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:56 pm
Wuilmer Becerra (OF) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Jeff McNeil (UTIL) 20%  20%  [ 4 ]
Ali Sanchez (C) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Quinn Brodey (OF) 25%  25%  [ 5 ]
Jayce Boyd (1B) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Austin McGeorge (RHP) 10%  10%  [ 2 ]
Matt Pobereyko (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Matt Winaker (1b) 0%  0%  [ 0 ]
Gregory Guerrero (SS) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Ryder Ryan (RHP) 5%  5%  [ 1 ]
Total votes : 20
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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:00 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:

You’re putting way too much stock in projections that have low likelihood of happening for one reason or another (development, health, just a scouting miss).

You can’t say he’s Tejada with more pop or “louder contact” whatever that means. He had a .300 slugging percentage in low A ball at the age Tejada was IN THE MAJORS. Tejada was a league average starter by the next season- Carpio will be, what, repeating Columbia?

The Tejada comp was made many a time- I’m not inventing it. He was an advanced approach guy who wasn’t really a plus athlete for an up the middle player- someone who’s ability to not have a huge glaring weakness would carry him more than any specific tool.


Again, we're going to have to agree to disagree. Prospect ranking is all about projections and tools. Box-score scouting is bad scouting.

Did you read the Jeff P write-up. He mentions hard contact like 3 times. Find me one time somebody said that about Tejada.

And mlb.com had Milton Ramos as our 12th prospect iirc... and BA had him our 19th and 25th prospect in back to back years. So take the rankings with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, BA had Tejada ranked in the Mets top 20 three times. BA ranked Carpio twice too but I'm not sure what reason there is to think Carpio was ever a better prospect than Tejada. Both were light hitting SSs with "good approaches." And both were "expected to stay at SS."


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 10:38 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

And mlb.com had Milton Ramos as our 12th prospect iirc... and BA had him our 19th and 25th prospect in back to back years. So take the rankings with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, BA had Tejada ranked in the Mets top 20 three times. BA ranked Carpio twice too but I'm not sure what reason there is to think Carpio was ever a better prospect than Tejada. Both were light hitting SSs with "good approaches." And both were "expected to stay at SS."


Again, I mostly disagree. Rankings can change. Obviously. They change every year. Players can peak early and stop developing (Dilson Herrera). Injuries can slow a guy down. A guy might never overcome a particular weakness like an ability to recognize off-speed pitches or a hitch in the batting stance or a tendency to throw the ball over the first baseman's head or learn plate discipline. Projection is far from an exact science and you never know if a player will move closer to his ceiling or closer to his floor as years go by, but there are basic methods by which prospects are ranked.

Milton Ramos was ranked off high-school pedigree. His glove never stood out as much as it was supposed to and his bat, except for a hot few weeks in Kingsport, never worked out either.

Tejada was never ranked all that high cause nobody wrote good things about his hit tool, other than doesn't strike out much and draws walks.

Carpio, granted it was only one season, but he got the kind of writeups a late first round pick would get. Hits the ball hard, advanced approach and has the glove to stick at SS. He's the only one of those 3 guys who checked all 3 boxes, granted, only for one season.

Ramos never had the advanced approach and looked like he could hit only briefly. Tejada never looked like a hitter. That's why Carpio worked his way up to #6 and why Jeff P liked him better and ranked him higher than Dom Smith in 2015.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:12 pm 
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This is getting to the point of silliness.

You’re comparing someone who is a BAD player In Low A ball to someone who had a fairly significant major league career.

Luis Carpio will never sniff Ruben Tejadas career. I am 100% confident in saying that.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sat Jan 06, 2018 11:28 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:

And mlb.com had Milton Ramos as our 12th prospect iirc... and BA had him our 19th and 25th prospect in back to back years. So take the rankings with a grain of salt.

Meanwhile back at the ranch, BA had Tejada ranked in the Mets top 20 three times. BA ranked Carpio twice too but I'm not sure what reason there is to think Carpio was ever a better prospect than Tejada. Both were light hitting SSs with "good approaches." And both were "expected to stay at SS."



Tejada was never ranked all that high cause nobody wrote good things about his hit tool, other than doesn't strike out much and draws walks.

Tejada never looked like a hitter.


Tejada played 78 games in the majors at age 20, so I think you are overstating that last point. There were quite a few people who thought his bat was projectable.

And as to the first point above, BA ranked him as the Mets #9 prospect after the '09 season.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:38 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
And as to the first point above, BA ranked him as the Mets #9 prospect after the '09 season.

Yes, but even then their scouting report said this:

Quote:
He makes good contact at the plate and could grow into gap power as he matures physically. Tejada's bat may prevent him from becoming an everyday player. Even when he gets stronger, power won't be a major part of his game, and he'll need to do a better job of drawing walks.


A guy with limited upside like that can rank that highly once they are upper levels, and it's a relatively safe projection. But who ever puts a guy with that upside onto one of these lists when they are in short season ball?

Don't think LTK was saying Carpio is a better prospect than Tejada was, just that he was supposed to have higher upside.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:31 am 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
This is getting to the point of silliness.

You’re comparing someone who is a BAD player In Low A ball to someone who had a fairly significant major league career.

Luis Carpio will never sniff Ruben Tejadas career. I am 100% confident in saying that.


That's not what I'm doing at all. I'm saying that Carpio's 2015 writeup wasn't Tejada 2.0 upside. His upside was better than that. And that doesn't mean the career will be. You're probably right on career. Carpio may not see majors. Tejada had 2 pretty decent years and 1 more almost OK one. HIs career 3.8 war will end up higher than a lot of guys who were former top 100 prospects and clearly better prospects.

I don't know why prospect ceiling is so confusing a concept. It doesn't guarantee that the player will see majors or put up a 3.8 war or better.

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:47 am 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

Tejada played 78 games in the majors at age 20, so I think you are overstating that last point. There were quite a few people who thought his bat was projectable.

And as to the first point above, BA ranked him as the Mets #9 prospect after the '09 season.


If he was in the majors at 20 with a projectable bat and SS's glove, he'd have been ranked top 3-5 easy, not 9.

and it wasn't a great top 10 at the time.

https://www.baseballamerica.com/today/p ... 69121.html

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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:04 am 
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acerimusdux wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
And as to the first point above, BA ranked him as the Mets #9 prospect after the '09 season.

Yes, but even then their scouting report said this:

Quote:
He makes good contact at the plate and could grow into gap power as he matures physically. Tejada's bat may prevent him from becoming an everyday player. Even when he gets stronger, power won't be a major part of his game, and he'll need to do a better job of drawing walks.


A guy with limited upside like that can rank that highly once they are upper levels, and it's a relatively safe projection. But who ever puts a guy with that upside onto one of these lists when they are in short season ball?


BA. Ranked Tejada, then 17, in the Mets top 20 coming off of 35 GCL games in 2007.

And I think we're splitting hairs now, but I think most people thought Carpio's ranking after the '15 season was very aggressive.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 11:42 am 
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Prospect upside isn’t confusing- it’s just not a concrete concept that you should be citing to rely on anything.

When upside starts being something you weigh heavier than likelihood of outcomes you’re doing it wrong.

You’re talking about how much more upside Carpio had because of “loud contact” and power when the guy hasn’t actually shown any semblance of power whatsoever. In fact- he’s pretty much powerless. So that’s why upside becomes laughable to lean on.

I can sit here and say generic HSer struggling in rookie ball has more upside than Dillon Gee because he’s 19 and maybe he’ll add velocity even though he’s throwing 88 now and I have no reason to say that other than he’s young and tall. That would be silly though and just a random abstract observation that ultimately has no bearing because when it doesn’t happen you just say “oh well .” It’s much more concrete to say will he or won’t he do [this] or be better than [him]. That’s measurable.

Otherwise you can (and often will) make a case for anyone or anything just because “upside” says so.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 1:17 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
When upside starts being something you weigh heavier than likelihood of outcomes you’re doing it wrong.


But isn't that always the case for these low level guys?

I mean, to me, the liklihood for guys like Ronny Mauricio, Adrian Hernandez, Christian James, Cameron Planck, Bryce Hutchinson is overwhelmingly that they will all be busts.

But at that level, if you do want to pick out the guys with the highest likelihood of at least some big league role, you ca almost ignore performance and just take the guys with the best tools. Performance has much more predictive value at higher levels. But for guys at that level, upside and liklihood are just hugely correlated. The best predictor of likelihood at that stage is upside.


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 Post subject: Re: Who is #37?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 4:27 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Prospect upside isn’t confusing- it’s just not a concrete concept that you should be citing to rely on anything.

When upside starts being something you weigh heavier than likelihood of outcomes you’re doing it wrong.

You’re talking about how much more upside Carpio had because of “loud contact” and power when the guy hasn’t actually shown any semblance of power whatsoever. In fact- he’s pretty much powerless. So that’s why upside becomes laughable to lean on.

I can sit here and say generic HSer struggling in rookie ball has more upside than Dillon Gee because he’s 19 and maybe he’ll add velocity even though he’s throwing 88 now and I have no reason to say that other than he’s young and tall. That would be silly though and just a random abstract observation that ultimately has no bearing because when it doesn’t happen you just say “oh well .” It’s much more concrete to say will he or won’t he do [this] or be better than [him]. That’s measurable.

Otherwise you can (and often will) make a case for anyone or anything just because “upside” says so.



This was your original post, page 3.

MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Remember when Luis Carpio was a top 10 guy despite having Ruben Tejada scouting reports (pre-injury)?

And that was when we had a better system.



This was my answer, page 4.

Quote:
I don't think that's fair. . . .


OK, so, in the interest of bringing this to an end, I felt (and still feel) Carpio had better than Tejada scouting reports in 2015, given that by 2015 we all felt Tejada was a backup and he'd gone through his large number of errors period and his not showing up on the first day with the rest of the team stuff and his demotion to AAA situation and getting a little pudgy and all that. All that had happened by 2015.

So, potential starter writeups to me, wasn't a "Tejada scouting report". Tejada 2011/2012, solid glove, draws walks, 1 homer a year. maybe but Carpio had a bit more pwoer projection than that. The other problem was Tejada didn't stay at that level. He got worse.

a "Tejada scouting report", casts a negative connotation, it also suggests a slap hitter with 1 homer power, who was able to be a fringe starter because he didn't strike out and drew a fair bit of walks (some of Tejada's walks were cause he hit 8th where it's easier to draw walks too).

But in the interest of drawing this to a close, "Tejada scouting reports" isn't entirely wrong, so I over-reacted in responding. I still disagree, but I can see how your statement is fair and I over-reacted.

I just don't like the term "Tejada scouting report" unless the feeling is that the player has bench player upside with no power, cause that's really what Tejada was. It's like saying a prospect has a "Lastings Milledge" scouting report. It's a mixed message and comes across as a put down of the player.

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