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 Post subject: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Tue Jan 02, 2018 10:25 pm 
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But let’s get that narrative, which I’ve read and heard plenty this off-season, out of the way right now: yes, the Mets gave up several minor leaguers in trades to boost their playoff seasons of 2015 and ’16, but, Fulmer aside, those deals aren’t a factor in explaining their weak farm system.

In addition to Cespedes, the Mets in 2015 traded for Kelly Johnson, Juan Uribe, Tyler Clippard, Addison Reed and Jerry Blevins.

In those trades they gave up pitchers John Gant, Robert Whalen, Casey Meisner, Miller Diaz, and Matt Koch, and outfielder Matt den dekker. They also gave up Luis Cessa as part of the Cespedes trade.

None of those players are appear in any of the Top 20 or 25 Prospects lists for their current teams.

n those deals they gave up Max Wotell, Dilson Herrera, Akeel Morris and Erik Manoah.

Wotell is a 21-year-old lefty with some potential who missed most of last season with arm injuries, and Herrera, once billed as the future second baseman for the Mets, has fallen off the radar in the Reds’ organization.

Again, as in the 2015 trades, none of players the Mets gave up in ’16 appear in any list of top prospects for their current organizations.

No, the problem is simply that the Mets haven’t drafted well. And it should be noted that highly regarded shortstop Amed Rosario was an international free agent, signed out of the Dominican Republic.

http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseb ... -1.3733590

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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:11 am 
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All true. I think everyone can agree this front office has been awful with the draft.

That said, as I noted in the other thread, in an article that was supposed to be critical of the payroll and owners he sure spends a lot of time analyzing the draft.

Weak effort by Harper imo. Not surprising though since he's on the Wilpon payroll at SNY.

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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 1:06 am 
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Gant is probably a Top 20 prospect in our system. Also don't forget Ynoa who we traded for cash considerations.

I don't necessarily disagree that we came out positive in most of those trades, but those trades did really weaken our pitching depth in the higher levels. If his point is that prospects often don't pan out, then, well, yeah.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 7:10 am 
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It's beginning to look like a perfect crap storm: owners that won't spend, an FO that can't spot talent and players that can't stay healthy.

Happy New Year everybody.:-&

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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:25 am 
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^ ^ ^
There's a bit of everything, no question.

Health is #1 for me. If Harvey and Matz were healthy and peak, we'd love our 1-4 and we'd be taking playoffs. Attendance wouldn't be falling and the team would be looking at ways to boost the lineup. But when we expect 5 ERAs from Matz and Harv . . . we're no longer talking playoffs.

Did Sandy draft bad - I think he drafted better than people give him credit for, but yeah, below average I think - having looked.

2011 - Nimmo, Fulmer, Gsellman, Lugo, and a few cups of coffee. Jury's still out on Nimmo, but I don't think that's awful, maybe below average.

2012 - Cecchini, Plaw, Nido, Bowman (he counts), Sewald, Flexen. People hate the Cheech pick, but it's not like Courtney Hawkins is any better. - still some room for improvement, but not a good draft.

2013 - Jury's still out on Dom. Guillorme & Bashlor might be OK. Looking not good but Dom could carry a lot of this draft. Not as many fringe guys as 2011 & 12.

2014 - this is the odd one. Conforto might be the best overall pick in 2014 but nothing else. Weird outcome.

2015 - they drafted well, especially considering no first round pick. They got good talent in 2015.

2016/2017 - little early to say.

But I don't see the awful drafting that others see. I see below average. Maybe that's splitting hairs I suppose.

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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 8:35 am 
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below average = bad.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:00 am 
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You don't see awful drafting with Nimmo, Cecchini and Dom as our first picks in consecutive years?


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 9:32 am 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
^ ^ ^
There's a bit of everything, no question.

Health is #1 for me. If Harvey and Matz were healthy and peak, we'd love our 1-4 and we'd be taking playoffs. Attendance wouldn't be falling and the team would be looking at ways to boost the lineup. But when we expect 5 ERAs from Matz and Harv . . . we're no longer talking playoffs.

Did Sandy draft bad - I think he drafted better than people give him credit for, but yeah, below average I think - having looked.

2011 - Nimmo, Fulmer, Gsellman, Lugo, and a few cups of coffee. Jury's still out on Nimmo, but I don't think that's awful, maybe below average.

2012 - Cecchini, Plaw, Nido, Bowman (he counts), Sewald, Flexen. People hate the Cheech pick, but it's not like Courtney Hawkins is any better. - still some room for improvement, but not a good draft.

2013 - Jury's still out on Dom. Guillorme & Bashlor might be OK. Looking not good but Dom could carry a lot of this draft. Not as many fringe guys as 2011 & 12.

2014 - this is the odd one. Conforto might be the best overall pick in 2014 but nothing else. Weird outcome.

2015 - they drafted well, especially considering no first round pick. They got good talent in 2015.

2016/2017 - little early to say.

But I don't see the awful drafting that others see. I see below average. Maybe that's splitting hairs I suppose.


You're mentioning some really fringy players as successes.

You're right in that it's too soon to tell anything from the 16 or 17 drafts but can you name one success story from rounds 3-9 in the first 5 drafts? This is where I think you should expect to get a couple of useful players in 5 years. Is that asking too much?


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:25 am 
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TomInNC wrote:
You don't see awful drafting with Nummo, Cecchini and Dom as our first picks in consecutive years?


The awful part isn’t drafting them necessarily, it’s that they’re basically our top prospects this side of Amed, like HK said where are the below first round picks that are worth a darn?


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:30 am 
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AllWrightNow wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
You don't see awful drafting with Nummo, Cecchini and Dom as our first picks in consecutive years?


The awful part isn’t drafting them necessarily, it’s that they’re basically our top prospects this side of Amed, like HK said where are the below first round picks that are worth a darn?


For now I suppose it's just Gsellman and Lugo.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 11:36 am 
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thebull wrote:
AllWrightNow wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
You don't see awful drafting with Nummo, Cecchini and Dom as our first picks in consecutive years?


The awful part isn’t drafting them necessarily, it’s that they’re basically our top prospects this side of Amed, like HK said where are the below first round picks that are worth a darn?


For now I suppose it's just Gsellman and Lugo.


And those guys are from 6.5 years ago!!

Nothing in the intervening years.

Daniel Murphy was a 13th round pick in 2006 and basically batted 5th for a pennant-chasing team by summer 2008. Lucas Duda was a 7th round pick in 2007 and had a 136 wRC+ in the majors in 2011. Dillon Gee was a 23rd round pick in 2007 and starting games down the stretch - and not completely embarrassing himself in the Chris Flexen manner - by 2010.

Where are these types?!?

Forget 2012 and 2013 - we should be looking at the 2014 and 2015 drafts right now as providing some potential solutions to our problems. And the closest thing to that is hoping David Thompson league average performance in AA as a 24 year portends good things in the near term in MLB? Sheesh.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Wed Jan 03, 2018 12:03 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
You don't see awful drafting with Nimmo, Cecchini and Dom as our first picks in consecutive years?


They're much more ordinary than you realize. Look at players drafted #13. Nimmo still has a legit shot to be an average #13 pick. Fulmer is a good pick and there's a few also rans in there.

I think there's a lot of illusion on what an average draft looks like. People imagine it to be much better for other teams and on average, many teams draft just as "badly" as the mets.

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