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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:31 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
I had a long post typed out listing the Cardinals' 2nd round picks over the past ten years but decided that it was too long and boring and no one would read it.

But the conclusion was that their best 2nd round pick over that stretch is Carson Kelly, their current #2 prospect. The rest are either guys who didn't reach the majors, didn't have an impact in the majors, or are middling prospects.

The draft is a crap shoot. Sure, it's easy to second guess certain picks in hindsight, and some drafts may not turn out well, but we've had our fair share of later-round success in the past, and it's still to early to judge most Sandy drafts.


Why limit it to the 2nd round? Sure each pick individually is a crap shoot - no one denies that. Thats why a plan centered solely around building through amateur talent acquisition (and development) can't work - need to at least be opportunistic in trades.

But thats also why you get 40 shots at it. If we're sticking with the Cards, look at the Cards 2nd - 20th round picks and compare them to ours. In there you'll find:

Matt Carpenter (13)
Paul deJong (4)
Tommy Pham (16)
Lance Lynn (supplemental)
Tyler Lyons (9)
Trevor Rosenthal (21)
Matt Adams (23)

Plus all sorts of early round picks they actually hit on, like Wacha, Piscotty, Wong, Weaver, etc. Even if those guys have different degrees of actual success, thats better than the Gavin cecchinis of the world.


All of these guys are 2011 or earlier except deJong. Pham was from the same draft as Murphy. If you're going to include those guys, you'd have to include Murphy, Duda, deGrom, Matz, McHugh, Kirk, den Dekker, etc.

But since we're limiting this to Sandy, we should be talking 2011 onward. And it's too early to judge most of those drafts. We've gotten a few nice looking young players from those drafts -- Gsellman, Lugo, Sewald, Bradford, Flexen, Oswalt, Guillorme, Bashlor, McNeil. Yeah we haven't hit on any college bats after the first round but those guys are rare. Hopefully one or two of Alonso, Thompson, Kaczmarski, or Mazeika are able to change that narrative soon.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Fri Jan 05, 2018 7:38 pm 
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Joined: Sat Mar 29, 2008 11:14 am
Posts: 2632
Hot Takes wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Hot Takes wrote:
I had a long post typed out listing the Cardinals' 2nd round picks over the past ten years but decided that it was too long and boring and no one would read it.

But the conclusion was that their best 2nd round pick over that stretch is Carson Kelly, their current #2 prospect. The rest are either guys who didn't reach the majors, didn't have an impact in the majors, or are middling prospects.

The draft is a crap shoot. Sure, it's easy to second guess certain picks in hindsight, and some drafts may not turn out well, but we've had our fair share of later-round success in the past, and it's still to early to judge most Sandy drafts.


Why limit it to the 2nd round? Sure each pick individually is a crap shoot - no one denies that. Thats why a plan centered solely around building through amateur talent acquisition (and development) can't work - need to at least be opportunistic in trades.

But thats also why you get 40 shots at it. If we're sticking with the Cards, look at the Cards 2nd - 20th round picks and compare them to ours. In there you'll find:

Matt Carpenter (13)
Paul deJong (4)
Tommy Pham (16)
Lance Lynn (supplemental)
Tyler Lyons (9)
Trevor Rosenthal (21)
Matt Adams (23)

Plus all sorts of early round picks they actually hit on, like Wacha, Piscotty, Wong, Weaver, etc. Even if those guys have different degrees of actual success, thats better than the Gavin cecchinis of the world.


All of these guys are 2011 or earlier except deJong. Pham was from the same draft as Murphy. If you're going to include those guys, you'd have to include Murphy, Duda, deGrom, Matz, McHugh, Kirk, den Dekker, etc.

But since we're limiting this to Sandy, we should be talking 2011 onward. And it's too early to judge most of those drafts. We've gotten a few nice looking young players from those drafts -- Gsellman, Lugo, Sewald, Bradford, Flexen, Oswalt, Guillorme, Bashlor, McNeil. Yeah we haven't hit on any college bats after the first round but those guys are rare. Hopefully one or two of Alonso, Thompson, Kaczmarski, or Mazeika are able to change that narrative soon.


I have a gut feeling that Alonso is going to be a pretty good player when all is said and done.


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 Post subject: Re: Harper kills a Sandy fallacy
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 3:59 pm 
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Joined: Sun Oct 01, 2006 10:03 pm
Posts: 11853
Disco Ball wrote:
It's beginning to look like a perfect crap storm: owners that won't spend, an FO that can't spot talent and players that can't stay healthy.

Happy New Year everybody.:-&


that's it in a nutshell.

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