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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:27 pm 
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Quote:
made BP's top 100 at 69


Fair enough. Puck did make a top 100 but he was much much higher regarded than Hutchinson.

And, just trying to be fair, there are 29 other teams that have a Lindsay, Vientos
Mauricio that COULD break out and become top 100 guys.

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:45 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:


And your favorite, Hutchison, look at what they're saying about him:

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2018/1/1/1 ... son-mcneil
Quote:
Lukas Vlahos says:

Hutchinson was an exciting get for the Mets in the twelfth round. A 6'6" beast with a fastball that touches 95, Hutchinson got almost triple the value of his slot as a signing bonus. High school pitchers are literally the riskiest bets in baseball, but Hutchinson has the physical attributes and flashes of raw stuff that make him the most interesting low minors arm in the system to monitor in 2018.

Steve Sypa says:

With similar builds and plus fastballs, it’s hard not to feel shades of Noah Syndergaard from Hutchinson. Outside of Jake Eder, who the Mets had no chance of signing, he has the highest upside of all the prep arms the Mets drafted in 2017 and is the guy I was most excited to see they were able to sign. There’s still a lot of work that needs to be done, but Hutchinson could be the guy leading the next wave of highly talented Mets pitchers in a couple of years.


and yes, he pitched 7 innings and walked 6, so he's a work in progress, but the upside is there. It wouldn't be a huge stretch if he was the guy everyone's talking about in extended spring training.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/regi ... tchi000bry

. . . but yes, he's a reach for top 100. It would take a miraculous season from him. I do think the upside is there. He's got more upside than the other interesting pitchers I think. I like Christian James. He's further along, but I think Hutch has higher upside. Humphrey's is a Tommy John guy so he's out at least for 2018. Holderman needs to get healthy, but I think he has some upside.

(too long/too much?)



A- I seriously and obviously hope you are right


B- These pre-draft reports many times prove to be disappointing and/or overstated


C- Why did Hutchinson get selected after 450 others if he's potentially the next Noah??


D- Who are these Amazing Avenue bloggers Vlahos and Sypa? :?

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 5:52 pm 
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And LTK, you haven't even nominated Hutchinson for top 40 (!!) on our prospect list :shock: :shock: :shock:

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MarkJohnson>You wrote:

Yeah, and if you're using the "He's 19" logic, then I guess the best report a scout could give us is:


"I have no idea. He's a teenager. He may go through 5 arm surgeries between now and his 30th birthday. He may add a pitch. He may lose a pitch. He may put on 30 lbs and add velocity. He may put on 50 lbs and eat his way out of the league. I literally have no idea what he is going to be."

But thats not what these guys are paid to do, nor what we are looking for them to do, right?


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 6:15 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
C- Why did Hutchinson get selected after 450 others if he's potentially the next Noah??


I actually think the current draft system delinks quality and draft position to a large degree. While it's true that most quality guys are going in the top three rounds, a guy who might have been a 5th round draftee under the old system might not go until the 12th now, simply because teams are trying to squeeze as much value out as possible out of their bonus pools.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:10 pm 
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TomInNC wrote:
So you're saying we've got a snowballs chance in hell


No. I'm saying that the mets have a good shot at having 3 guys in next year's top 100. Gimenez, Peterson and the #6 pick all have a legit chance.

Past those 3, there's a bunch of long-shots, but if some of them step up, and if Mauricio comes stateside and looks good, our system won't be bad anymore. It'll be at least average, just by doing nothing but picking a solid guy at #6.

I'm saying, give it a year and the farm system might fix itself, even without making a single trade for prospects. That's much better than a snowball's chance in hell.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:12 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:
And LTK, you haven't even nominated Hutchinson for top 40 (!!) on our prospect list :shock: :shock: :shock:


I'd completely forgotten about him until I read the Amazin Avenue writeups in their rankings. They had him at 22 I think, but with considerable upside.

I didn't want to nominate him cause 3 guys have already been, so I thought I'd wait for the next ballot rather than listing a 4th nominee. Metro prefers them one at a time.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:21 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
TomInNC wrote:
So you're saying we've got a snowballs chance in hell


No. I'm saying that the mets have a good shot at having 3 guys in next year's top 100. Gimenez, Peterson and the #6 pick all have a legit chance.

Past those 3, there's a bunch of long-shots, but if some of them step up, and if Mauricio comes stateside and looks good, our system won't be bad anymore. It'll be at least average, just by doing nothing but picking a solid guy at #6.

I'm saying, give it a year and the farm system might fix itself, even without making a single trade for prospects. That's much better than a snowball's chance in hell.


If if if if. The org gets by when leaving it to a bunch of ifs. IF TDA, Flores and Conforto all his 35 homers our line-up will look better too

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Sun Jan 07, 2018 10:24 pm 
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Daaaarryyl wrote:

A- I seriously and obviously hope you are right

B- These pre-draft reports many times prove to be disappointing and/or overstated

C- Why did Hutchinson get selected after 450 others if he's potentially the next Noah??

D- Who are these Amazing Avenue bloggers Vlahos and Sypa? :?


A) I did say I was stretching possibility almost to the moon, so, I don't want it to sound like I'm saying Hutch will be a top 100 next year, I'm saying he has a shot at being very interesting this time next year. I suppose you could say that about anybody, but he's got the velocity now, which makes him a better breakout candidate.

B) yeah, the draft writeups will be close to meaningless in as little as a year. I still check them for reference or little stories, but they lose relevance pretty quickly.

C) Hutch was a tough sign. I think if teams had reached agreements with him, he'd probably go in the 4th/5th round, but teams hadn't reached an agreement so he was still on board on day 3. He was a tough sign who didn't sign until the very last day that he could and he signed for $360K. It's short of Bashlor money, but still good money for a day 3 pick.

D) I don't know much about Vlahos and Sypa, but they write for Amazin Ave.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:10 am 
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I think we fix the farm system by not spending on free agents or making any trades. That way we pick in the top few picks every year for the next 10 years or so. Wait til next decade. It's a plan. A terrible plan, but a plan.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:18 am 
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1. Draft better -- The Mets game been 'experimental' in the Alderson's era. We all knew that most of their first round picks (outside of Conforto) were all a bit surprising. They should stop trying to find a unique talent and just grab the best available player.

2. Scout better -- the Mets have a very limited scouting presence in some of the most important parts of the world. They don't seem interested in Cuba or any part of Asia. They need to change that.

3. Sign as many international prospects as possible -- this is a logical next step to 2. Yea, the Mets usually sign a handful of kids every summer, but they're not on the same playing field as the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, etc. International prospects are a cheap gamble for MLB teams, and the best run organizations already realize that they can spend $3 million in one summer and potentially develop a player or trade piece that competes with $100 million free agents. The Mets should use the fact that they were the organization of some popular Latino players (Reyes, Pedro, Beltran, Delgado) that these kids grew up emulating to their advantage. So you grew up in the DR wanting to be Pedro Martinez? How about joining the Mets, where Pedro once played?


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:22 am 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
1. Draft better -- The Mets game been 'experimental' in the Alderson's era. We all knew that most of their first round picks (outside of Conforto) were all a bit surprising. They should stop trying to find a unique talent and just grab the best available player.

2. Scout better -- the Mets have a very limited scouting presence in some of the most important parts of the world. They don't seem interested in Cuba or any part of Asia. They need to change that.

3. Sign as many international prospects as possible -- this is a logical next step to 2. Yea, the Mets usually sign a handful of kids every summer, but they're not on the same playing field as the Dodgers, Cubs, Red Sox, etc. International prospects are a cheap gamble for MLB teams, and the best run organizations already realize that they can spend $3 million in one summer and potentially develop a player or trade piece that competes with $100 million free agents. The Mets should use the fact that they were the organization of some popular Latino players (Reyes, Pedro, Beltran, Delgado) that these kids grew up emulating to their advantage. So you grew up in the DR wanting to be Pedro Martinez? How about joining the Mets, where Pedro once played?


The fact that your second point is a thing really exacerbates the first point. If you're not going to invest heavily in scouting to the point that you have information another team doesn't (a la the Astros), something we know that this organization doesn't do, you're just getting cute when you draft a guy way above where everyone expected him to go.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 9:33 am 
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Cecchini and Nimmo were experimental. Dom was a solid choice where they drafted him.

Other rounds were a bit odd at times.

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