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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 3:47 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:

I agree but on the pitching front the Mets minor league system is getting killed by Tommy John surgeries so I think the Mets really need to focus on keeping the arms healthy because having so many arms lose two years of development time is devastating. Also, can anyone explain why the Mets wasted a 2nd round pick on Anthony Kay when it was reported they saw his medicals and knew he was hurt? If Kay was a flame thrower that topped out at 100 MPH I would say, ok that's a good risk to take but to draft a soft tosser in the second round who was injured is just stupid. Good organizations don't throw away second round picks.


Questioning the Kay pick is fine, (and some points below were addrssed already) but Kay's not a "soft tosser", at least he wasn't when he was drafted. He works in the low 90s, touches 95 and he's a lefty with 3 pitches and a potentially plus change-up.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/6/15/ ... -mlb-uconn

That's a workable package for a starter, especially a lefty. It's not a high ceiling, but a back of the rotation starter was certainly possible.

Kay was a high floor, low ceiling pick and while the Tommy John was unknown at that point, it was known that he'd thrown a heavy workload in college and he's 6'0 so there was perhaps some reason for injury concern.

If Kay was a flame thrower who threw 100 as a lefty, he'd have been gone long before #31. It was kind of a typical mets, "safe but boring" pick. Not terrible, just not exciting. The mets may have believed they could save a couple hundred thousand off Kay's slot as well and they may have believed that he could move through the system quickly, but we never got to find out because the failed physical which changed everything.

If he comes back from Tommy John he could make a strong case for the mets top 10 next year. He's one to watch for sure.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 4:35 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
piazzafan wrote:

I agree but on the pitching front the Mets minor league system is getting killed by Tommy John surgeries so I think the Mets really need to focus on keeping the arms healthy because having so many arms lose two years of development time is devastating. Also, can anyone explain why the Mets wasted a 2nd round pick on Anthony Kay when it was reported they saw his medicals and knew he was hurt? If Kay was a flame thrower that topped out at 100 MPH I would say, ok that's a good risk to take but to draft a soft tosser in the second round who was injured is just stupid. Good organizations don't throw away second round picks.


Questioning the Kay pick is fine, (and some points below were addrssed already) but Kay's not a "soft tosser", at least he wasn't when he was drafted. He works in the low 90s, touches 95 and he's a lefty with 3 pitches and a potentially plus change-up.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/6/15/ ... -mlb-uconn

That's a workable package for a starter, especially a lefty. It's not a high ceiling, but a back of the rotation starter was certainly possible.

Kay was a high floor, low ceiling pick and while the Tommy John was unknown at that point, it was known that he'd thrown a heavy workload in college and he's 6'0 so there was perhaps some reason for injury concern.

If Kay was a flame thrower who threw 100 as a lefty, he'd have been gone long before #31. It was kind of a typical mets, "safe but boring" pick. Not terrible, just not exciting. The mets may have believed they could save a couple hundred thousand off Kay's slot as well and they may have believed that he could move through the system quickly, but we never got to find out because the failed physical which changed everything.

If he comes back from Tommy John he could make a strong case for the mets top 10 next year. He's one to watch for sure.


It's my understanding from various scouting sites that when they say "touches 95" that usually means that most of the time you subtract 3 MPH's off that number to see the speed where the majority of their fastball's sit. One thing though is that we don't know how long Kay has been pitching with a bad elbow. There is a slim possibility that has mediocre velocity was due to having a bad elbow (could be he was hurt for a while and never told anyone) and TJ surgery might be able to get his velocity up to regularity sitting at 94 MPH and touching 97. I know thats a pipe dream but maybe the Mets will actually get lucky with him.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:06 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:

It's my understanding from various scouting sites that when they say "touches 95" that usually means that most of the time you subtract 3 MPH's off that number to see the speed where the majority of their fastball's sit. One thing though is that we don't know how long Kay has been pitching with a bad elbow. There is a slim possibility that has mediocre velocity was due to having a bad elbow (could be he was hurt for a while and never told anyone) and TJ surgery might be able to get his velocity up to regularity sitting at 94 MPH and touching 97. I know thats a pipe dream but maybe the Mets will actually get lucky with him.


I realize my posts are too long but that's basically what I said as well.

Quote:
He works in the low 90s, touches 95


and from the article

Quote:
His fastball sits in the low-90s, topping out as high as 95 MPH. While not exactly lighting up the radar gun, the left-hander nonetheless has shown the ability to hold his velocity deep into games. The pitch gets good arm-side run. He is able to locate the pitch well, and can hit the glove on all quadrants of the plate.

He complements his fastball with a change-up, which scouts generally consider above-average. Kay has big, thick fingers, which allow him to bury the ball in his palm and cover more surface area on the ball.


I didn't think calling him a "soft-tosser" was fair. Maybe we need more terms to improve the definition.

"Soft-Tosser" - works below 90 to 90 sometimes, touches 92-93 (Dillon Gee)
"Medium-Tosser" works low 90s, touches 95.
"Good-Tosser", works in the 94 range, touches 96-97
"Hard-Tosser", works 95-96 range, touches 98 (Harvey in his prime)
"God-like-Tosser", works 97, touches 100 or above. (Thor)

Does that work for everyone? I'm open to suggestions/edits. Maybe Gee was more of a medium tosser, I just kinda remember him being a little slow. Clearly this doesn't address break or secondary pitches, which are very important too. Soft-Tossers can still be good pitchers.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:33 pm 
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Everything I've ever read/heard about Kay was he worked 90-92 but on occasion popped a few 94-95's. How you want to categorize that is up to you but I think it's a stretch to expect mid-90's or even consistently 93+ unless something unusual to occur.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 5:45 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Everything I've ever read/heard about Kay was he worked 90-92 but on occasion popped a few 94-95's. How you want to categorize that is up to you but I think it's a stretch to expect mid-90's or even consistently 93+ unless something unusual to occur.


Does 90-92, occasional 94-95 = soft tosser? (I never said I expected mid 90s).

I realize the question is subject to some opinion on where the categories fall.

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:03 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Everything I've ever read/heard about Kay was he worked 90-92 but on occasion popped a few 94-95's. How you want to categorize that is up to you but I think it's a stretch to expect mid-90's or even consistently 93+ unless something unusual to occur.


I agree but maybe Kay's elbow has been damaged for a while and he was pitching with some damage. Tommy John ligament's (in most cases) just don't snap. The damage builds up and some cases when the ligament first starts tearing some kids don't even feel it until it's too late. There's a slim possibility that when it's fixed he might be able to get a few extra miles on his FB. That's a long shot though but it's not out of the realm of possibilites. BTW, too bad the Mets didn't take Alec Hansen in the second round ( I don't remember if the White sox picked before of after the Mets). But the Mets love hard throwing tall pitchers. It would be a head scratcher if he was available and the Mets choose to go with Kay.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:08 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
Everything I've ever read/heard about Kay was he worked 90-92 but on occasion popped a few 94-95's. How you want to categorize that is up to you but I think it's a stretch to expect mid-90's or even consistently 93+ unless something unusual to occur.


Does 90-92, occasional 94-95 = soft tosser? (I never said I expected mid 90s).

I realize the question is subject to some opinion on where the categories fall.


My point was more about realistic expectations vs. labels. Scouting reports (even from the best sources) can be "iffy" but he pitched for a major program, there were eyes on him, most (if not all) had him as a guy who worked 90-92 and that's LIKELY where he will be should he come back 100%. Is it possible there is more there that was obstructed by an arm issue? Sure. But I'm just saying that's an unlikely outcome. In fact (sadly) better odds he loses something than gains (just based on the reality of major elbow surgery and his previous workload vs. the perception guys come back throwing "harder".

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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 6:37 pm 
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Regardless of the point about labels and expectations and whatever (I think most here know that "touching" a certain velo doesn't mean they're throwing that consistently), calling Kay a soft-tosser and wasted pick is unfair.

And that one hot take is symptomatic of a lot of hot takes about our drafting. It's too dang early to judge recent drafts. I get our farm sucks right now but thinking that's because our 2015-17 drafts weren't good doesn't consider that it's impossible to judge drafts in their entirety until years later.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 8:38 pm 
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Hot Takes wrote:
Regardless of the point about labels and expectations and whatever (I think most here know that "touching" a certain velo doesn't mean they're throwing that consistently), calling Kay a soft-tosser and wasted pick is unfair.

And that one hot take is symptomatic of a lot of hot takes about our drafting. It's too dang early to judge recent drafts. I get our farm sucks right now but thinking that's because our 2015-17 drafts weren't good doesn't consider that it's impossible to judge drafts in their entirety until years later.


Regarding Kay being a wasted pick it all depends on when the Mets knew he was hurt. We all know (especially during the Omar era) that they weren't exactly thorough when going over medical reports. Because of the JJ Putz incident the organization is really careful now. It all depends if they knew he was hurt before or after they drafted him. And if Kay was hurt and didn't disclose the info then shame on him and his agent. You would have to think that an organization wouldn't draft a guy whose fastball is in the 90-92 range knowing he needs TJ. It's just too risky. But this is the Mets so you never really know what their rationale is for doing anything. In all fairness though I would think it's hard to get medical reports on all players available for the draft but I would think for guys you possibly have targeted in the first or second round you insist on medical reports BEFORE you draft them.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Tue Jan 09, 2018 10:30 pm 
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Here is a good read of the CBA rule changes as it pertains to the draft.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baseba ... famphtml=1

It literally uses Kay as an example for the new MRI program.... so it sounds like Mets found out during his physical.


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 Post subject: Re: Any ideas on how to fix the Farm System?
PostPosted: Wed Jan 10, 2018 8:23 am 
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stevereiff wrote:
Here is a good read of the CBA rule changes as it pertains to the draft.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.baseba ... famphtml=1

It literally uses Kay as an example for the new MRI program.... so it sounds like Mets found out during his physical.



This is a fact. The Mets did NOT plan on Kay and Planck. They had money left over because Kay was damaged good (unknown to them when they made the pick).

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