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Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:00 pm

yalikeMetroplitans wrote:
thebull wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:Just an overall silly move if you are trying to create a sustainable winning environment.


I'm against it as seen in this thread, but I wouldn't go that far. Was really hoping for Duda. I just hope they're not slow to cut him if he's not performing.


That is one thing. Gonzo will be easier to cut than someone like Duda or Morrison if they weren't performing.


This is a heck of a spin job.

He's cheap so easier to cut because he's expected to be worse and has a greater chance of failure.

Thats the same philosophy of "bullpen flexibility" - e.g., we're afraid of signing the wrong guy ala our bullpen signings in the past, and it'll be easier to shuffle out our crappy internal options that either have options or make no money.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:16 pm

Yeah, I'm pretty confident that there's an exceptionally low chance that we would ever need to cut Duda. Can't say the same for Gonzalez.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 1:29 pm

northway wrote:Yeah, I'm pretty confident that there's an exceptionally low chance that we would ever need to cut Duda. Can't say the same for Gonzalez.

I think the difference between Duda and a healthy Adrian Gonzalez is probably negligible.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 2:02 pm

HeyNowHK wrote:
northway wrote:Yeah, I'm pretty confident that there's an exceptionally low chance that we would ever need to cut Duda. Can't say the same for Gonzalez.

I think the difference between Duda and a healthy Adrian Gonzalez is probably negligible.


Wholeheartedly disagree. Gonzalez was awful last year, and meh in 2016, and he's entering his age 36 season in a post-steroid world. He's graded out quite poorly as a defender too.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:33 pm

MarkJohnson>You wrote:
yalikeMetroplitans wrote:That is one thing. Gonzo will be easier to cut than someone like Duda or Morrison if they weren't performing.


This is a heck of a spin job.

He's cheap so easier to cut because he's expected to be worse and has a greater chance of failure.

Thats the same philosophy of "bullpen flexibility" - e.g., we're afraid of signing the wrong guy ala our bullpen signings in the past, and it'll be easier to shuffle out our crappy internal options that either have options or make no money.

Fully admitting it's spin. Just looking for a silver lining, though I think there's a non-zero chance this could work out ok.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 3:39 pm

thebull wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
northway wrote:Yeah, I'm pretty confident that there's an exceptionally low chance that we would ever need to cut Duda. Can't say the same for Gonzalez.

I think the difference between Duda and a healthy Adrian Gonzalez is probably negligible.


Wholeheartedly disagree. Gonzalez was awful last year, and meh in 2016, and he's entering his age 36 season in a post-steroid world. He's graded out quite poorly as a defender too.

AGone's age 34 season (2016) vs. RHers (452 PAs): 303/372/488, 16HRs, 129 RC+, 37% hard hit rate

Duda's age 31 season (2017) vs RHers (380 PAs): 227/342/525, 25 HRs, 126 RC+, 43% hard hit rate

Duda career facing RHers: 249/356/486, 132 RC+, 39% hard hit rate

I argued for Duda rather than invest 3 yrs in Bruce, who forces them to shift Scooter to CF. I didn't understand that. But in terms of a short term plan at 1B, I don't think there's a lot to go on that Duda is a better option at 1B than AGone (if he's healthy), and the money certainly makes sense. Given what they tied up in Bruce, I can certainly understand opting for AG over Duda at 1B on a 1 yr deal.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:40 pm

How can you not realize that Gonzalez is likely washed up? Age 34 season to age 36 season is a HUGE difference in a post-steroid world.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:42 pm

northway wrote:Yeah, I'm pretty confident that there's an exceptionally low chance that we would ever need to cut Duda. Can't say the same for Gonzalez.


*cough*


8)

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 5:51 pm

thebull wrote:How can you not realize that Gonzalez is likely washed up? Age 34 season to age 36 season is a HUGE difference in a post-steroid world.

OK. Could be. Adrian Beltre was 38 this year. Nelson Cruz 37. David Ortiz's last season was at 40. Carlos Beltran hit 100 HRs since turning 36. Age 36 isn't necessarily a death sentence.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:17 pm

HeyNowHK wrote:
thebull wrote:How can you not realize that Gonzalez is likely washed up? Age 34 season to age 36 season is a HUGE difference in a post-steroid world.

OK. Could be. Adrian Beltre was 38 this year. Nelson Cruz 37. David Ortiz's last season was at 40. Carlos Beltran hit 100 HRs since turning 36. Age 36 isn't necessarily a death sentence.


None of those Hall of Famers ever had a season as poor as Gonzalez's wRC+ of 69 last season and then bounced back. Beltran had a similar number last year and he retired.

And even if there is a slim chance of a Gonzalez bounceback, I'm not sure how you can say the difference between him and Duda is likely negligible.

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 6:21 pm

thebull wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
thebull wrote:How can you not realize that Gonzalez is likely washed up? Age 34 season to age 36 season is a HUGE difference in a post-steroid world.

OK. Could be. Adrian Beltre was 38 this year. Nelson Cruz 37. David Ortiz's last season was at 40. Carlos Beltran hit 100 HRs since turning 36. Age 36 isn't necessarily a death sentence.


None of those Hall of Famers ever had a season as poor as Gonzalez's wRC+ of 69 last season and then bounced back. Beltran had a similar number last year and he retired.

And even if there is a slim chance of a Gonzalez bounceback, I'm not sure how you can say the difference between him and Duda is likely negligible.


Duda looked shot during his time in Tampa. What do they have in common? Bad backs. If Gonzalez's back is in good shape then he can bounce back

Re: Mets sign Adrian Gonzalez

Fri Jan 19, 2018 7:07 pm

I predict a decent start for Gonzalez. Much like Money did initially but a little better. But i don't see it lasting a full season.
.256/.333/.415

If the Mets played it the right way, you would switch him and Flores in lefty/righty games. If that happens, combined. I can see a .282/.345/.520 type line. But in that position. Not combined as we all know Flores will play multiple spots
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