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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:39 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
There is definitely a conflation of the idea of scouts with bloggers in here. I've seen it a bunch of times. The guys cited here are almost always bloggers, some of whom sometimes cite scouts in their writeups, but normally are giving their own 'somewhat educated' opinion.... which is to say many of them (no need to name specific bloggers here) are simply paid versions of the posters right here. Moreover, I definitely value the opinions of some posters here more than the bloggers some people cite from time to time.

Yes, in some cases, some of these guys who are paid to opine about the prospect universe do get out and see more minor league games than I do, but many of them also have day jobs and do this as a sideline. Just saying not to lose sight of the notion, with these bloggers in particular, that their views should be taken with a grain of salt. And of course, scouts make plenty of bad calls too.

Back to the topic... FG issued what is their 'best of the rest' lists today and they have both Gimenez and Mauricio prominently mentioned in the MI group. To me, the idea of conflating Gimenez with Carpio doesn't hold much water. And tying this back to the above, the knocks on Gimenez for 'not having loud tools' or whatever we're hearing now sounds like someone making up the justification for him being left off some top 100 lists. To me, he's full of tools. He's already showing good contact skills playing in a league where he's 3 yrs younger than everyone else. He's a quick twitch LHed hitting 2Bman with good secondary skills and the contact will just get louder when his body fills out a little more. This is definitely a ML regular track. Carpio was never on anything but a UT track at best.


Jeff P's in-person filed scouting report sounds 100% in-line with everyone else, and he disagrees with your "quick twitch" comments as well

"Big butt and legs, 6-foot might be a bit of a stretch, fireplug frame. Underdeveloped upper body, room to add strength.

Run times all over the place. A couple 4.1s in the mix, and looked like a present 55 or 60 runner underway. Suspect it plays more to average as the frame fills out.
Glove 50 Good actions/instincts, knows what he wants to do, but can try to do too much too quickly. Struggles with game speed at times. A step slower than you'd like coming in on balls. Tools are there to be an above-average shortstop, but this is a hedge based on uncertainty on what the body looks like in five years.

""Gimenez is a very polished middle infielder for his age both at the plate and in the field. Needs to add strength for the offensive profile to play up, and may lack a carrying tool in the end. Being able to play everyday at shortstop would be a big boon for the profile. Check back on that in two years as the body matures." "Realistic role 50; Everyday middle infielder"

Law didn't place him either

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:40 pm 
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If anything I've yet to come across a single report/scouting quote from a reputable source that talks up his athleticism at all. Quite the opposite.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:40 pm 
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Another-
The foot speed and athleticism is good enough to keep him in the middle infield and slot him in the upper portion of the lineup, though one should not expect prototypical burner speed. The glove and arm are said to be good enough to stick at shortstop; and while in the Mets world that is a fairly low bar, it is worth noting outside the organization that is the consensus thus far.

https://metsmerizedonline.com/2017/01/m ... z-ss.html/

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:45 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
"Realistic role 50; Everyday middle infielder"



This is more or less my point. If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:50 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
"Realistic role 50; Everyday middle infielder"



This is more or less my point. If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face.



So where are you disagreeing with what I posted? A reputable person in the industry downplayed his perceived upside based on his #1 ranking and compared him to our current young SS. Wouldn't you agree he's #1 because the system is so poor and not because he's a legit "#1" prospect in a good system? You think I went out searching for someone to not be overly impressed with the tools? SOME have made a Tejada comp, if he's Tejada with 40 power he's a regular but questionable how "excited" people would be if we wrote that outcome in pen. I'm guessing not very.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:51 pm 
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If I had a crystal ball and I asked the people on here "Gimenez will be Ruben Tejada in his prime but with 5-7 homer power, do you sign for that right now?" I'm guessing most do not. And that would actually be a fantastic outcome in reality.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:53 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
If I had a crystal ball and I asked the people on here "Gimenez will be Ruben Tejada in his prime but with 5-7 homer power, do you sign for that right now?" I'm guessing most do not. And that would actually be a fantastic outcome in reality.

That's pretty clearly not where I'm going with this.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:54 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
"Realistic role 50; Everyday middle infielder"



This is more or less my point. If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face.


I think the biggest disconnect is what people perceive as a "5" role middle infielder, though.

Its not a knock to point out that 2011 Ruben Tejada was a league average middle infielder. Jose Reyes 2017 was a league average middle infielder.

Do some of these guys look like this and then turn into Didi Gregorius: Yankee Edition? Sure, but more than not, they don't, so the disconnect I think is that everyone gets exited about 19 yr olds projecting as average middle infielders, and then get mad when you point out what that looks like (e.g., its not the names you like).

Maybe if we used non-Mets that people have such vitriol for it wouldn't be met with such resistance. Starlin Castro? Jose Iglesias?


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:54 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
If I had a crystal ball and I asked the people on here "Gimenez will be Ruben Tejada in his prime but with 5-7 homer power, do you sign for that right now?" I'm guessing most do not. And that would actually be a fantastic outcome in reality.

That's pretty clearly not where I'm going with this.



How so? It seems exactly where you have gone with this. Ruben Tejada in his prime + a little power wouldn't 100% fit this aka your terrific outcome?

" If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face."

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:55 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
If I had a crystal ball and I asked the people on here "Gimenez will be Ruben Tejada in his prime but with 5-7 homer power, do you sign for that right now?" I'm guessing most do not. And that would actually be a fantastic outcome in reality.

That's pretty clearly not where I'm going with this.


That may not be where you're going with this, but I think its the point.

Most don't equate the projection with the reality.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 12:55 pm 
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MJ, no knock but Starlin Castro for some reason has a really oddly inflated "perception" vs. his reality from fans from what I've seen (mostly when rumors came up he was available).

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:05 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
If I had a crystal ball and I asked the people on here "Gimenez will be Ruben Tejada in his prime but with 5-7 homer power, do you sign for that right now?" I'm guessing most do not. And that would actually be a fantastic outcome in reality.

That's pretty clearly not where I'm going with this.



How so? It seems exactly where you have gone with this. Ruben Tejada in his prime + a little power wouldn't 100% fit this aka your terrific outcome?

" If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face."

Wait, you're telling me where I'm going with this?? :lol:

So, henceforth every minor leaguer who plays in full season ball while still in his teems is going to be compared to Ruben Tejada?? Is this the fate we are all resigned to suffer?! LOL

I think the upside is a heck of a lot higher for Gimenez than it ever was for Tejada. I don't know that Tejada was ever a 50 prospect. That's where I see Gimenez now and yes that's a little ahead of where most in "the industry" have him.


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