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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:15 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:

So, henceforth every minor leaguer who plays in full season ball while still in his teems is going to be compared to Ruben Tejada?? Is this the fate we are all resigned to suffer?! LOL



Its a relevant, useful even if not 100% analogous to the nth degree (e.g., arguing over 1-3 HR power vs. 5-7 HR power), comp because we all saw that outcome recently. As I mentioned, we can use non-Mets if that makes people feel better but thats even more guessing because I would guess none of us here really followed those guys very closely in the minors.

And its more than "full season teen" - its "full season teen who advances based on approach and floor rather than tools/upside". We've had a bunch of those recently. Its just useful to remind folks that trajectory isn't always on an exponential basis.

Vlad Guerrero Jr. isn't eliciting Tejada comps for a reason.

Its sort of like when a guy elicits a back end starter projection and people throw out a name of someone who is actually a back end starter (aka, a starter you don't think is very good). Always met with "Ewww, no, this guy is much better because his upside is waa waa waa." I mean, OK, but thats not what a back end starter is...


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:19 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
"Realistic role 50; Everyday middle infielder"



This is more or less my point. If everyday MIer is the realistic projection, that's a pretty terrific outcome. I have no idea why we see the majority of things written that attempts to downplay this kid's future. Not likely to be a future star (whatever your definition may be for that) is not a knock. And all the pieces of the puzzle add up to ML regular at this stage, as I pointed out in the post above. To me, he's a 50/55 until he falls on his face.


I think the biggest disconnect is what people perceive as a "5" role middle infielder, though.

Its not a knock to point out that 2011 Ruben Tejada was a league average middle infielder. Jose Reyes 2017 was a league average middle infielder.

Do some of these guys look like this and then turn into Didi Gregorius: Yankee Edition? Sure, but more than not, they don't, so the disconnect I think is that everyone gets exited about 19 yr olds projecting as average middle infielders, and then get mad when you point out what that looks like (e.g., its not the names you like).

Maybe if we used non-Mets that people have such vitriol for it wouldn't be met with such resistance. Starlin Castro? Jose Iglesias?

I wouldn't call it a disconnect on my end as much as I would on the "industry" end. These guys who write for these publications spend so much energy in their write ups on negatives and what these players ostensibly 'can't do' that the overall narrative they portray most often is of players who aren't MLers or not more than fringe ones. Saying 'no carrying tool' but 'realistically a ML regular' is a pretty confusing, if not contradictory narrative.

I conjure more Josh Harrison when I see "ML regular" 2Bman than I do Ruben Tejada (career 4war). But yeah even Starlin Castro has 14 war thru age 27. How is that a bad outcome?

Regardless, being a fringe top 100 player at 19 is fine. The lists, if people are focused on that, are totally arbitrary esp given they are taken at certain slices of time. Gimenez is at an age where he can easily jump into the top 50 with a solid 2018 season, so it's all up to him now. Can definitely see him similar to Luis Urias in 2 yrs. And all that said, I wouldn't have hesitated to deal him for Machado.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:20 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
MJ, no knock but Starlin Castro for some reason has a really oddly inflated "perception" vs. his reality from fans from what I've seen (mostly when rumors came up he was available).


It wasn't really a very good analogy; I was just trying to throw out names of guys who are everyday middle infielders year after year without much, if any, challenge to their playing time but not studs, nor will they ever be. Obviously its a completely different package.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:24 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
[ But yeah even Starlin Castro has 14 war thru age 27. How is that a bad outcome?


The point is its not a bad outcome. But its still a guy that if you throw out people will give you all the reasons why Gimenez (or whoever we're discussing) is better, without focusing on a) any of the downside risk or b) what the overall value is in that player, as flawed as they might be, versus the projection.

ANd again, not to harp on the Tejada thing, and the biggest issue is he flamed out before age 25, but again, the comp most often used is the 2011 Tejada season, where he WAS a league average regular. Thats an outcome that before you associate it with Tejada, people go "YEah!!!!" But once you attach Tejada's name, its like an insult.

The biggest thing to learn from the Tejada comp and Tejada result is that guys without big tools like that can burn out pretty quickly if any of their average skillset deteriorates at all. Tejada basically couldn't play SS by age 25 with some combo of filling out and leg injuries, and he's cooked now.


Harrison is an upside type of comp given the excess athleticism he has which is a big part of his value. So Harrison but as a lesser athlete but with more "old man" skills (e.g., walks!!) seems fine.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 1:26 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
MJ, no knock but Starlin Castro for some reason has a really oddly inflated "perception" vs. his reality from fans from what I've seen (mostly when rumors came up he was available).


It wasn't really a very good analogy; I was just trying to throw out names of guys who are everyday middle infielders year after year without much, if any, challenge to their playing time but not studs, nor will they ever be. Obviously its a completely different package.



I just couldn't believe how high some people were on the Mets adding Castro. Some of these guys (I guess if they play well upon being called up) end up with a rep beyond their actual resume/skills.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:15 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
I just couldn't believe how high some people were on the Mets adding Castro. Some of these guys (I guess if they play well upon being called up) end up with a rep beyond their actual resume/skills.

Yeah, he was a highly touted top 20 overall prospect, who then became a 3.0 WAR guy at 21-22 (with some perhaps imagining even more upside), before settling in as a 1 to 2 WAR guy over the past 5 seasons. Maybe people are hanging onto their perceptions from 5 years ago.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 3:27 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
I just couldn't believe how high some people were on the Mets adding Castro. Some of these guys (I guess if they play well upon being called up) end up with a rep beyond their actual resume/skills.

Yeah, he was a highly touted top 20 overall prospect, who then became a 3.0 WAR guy at 21-22 (with some perhaps imagining even more upside), before settling in as a 1 to 2 WAR guy over the past 5 seasons. Maybe people are hanging onto their perceptions from 5 years ago.



The other thing is if you had some level of success some people have a longer "leash" ie "player x had a 3.5 fWAR season 5 years ago" to some it's "5 years ago!" and to others it's "only 5 years ago".

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:31 pm 
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acerimusdux wrote:
Metro2007 wrote:
I just couldn't believe how high some people were on the Mets adding Castro. Some of these guys (I guess if they play well upon being called up) end up with a rep beyond their actual resume/skills.

Yeah, he was a highly touted top 20 overall prospect, who then became a 3.0 WAR guy at 21-22 (with some perhaps imagining even more upside), before settling in as a 1 to 2 WAR guy over the past 5 seasons. Maybe people are hanging onto their perceptions from 5 years ago.


That's not uncommon though. I remember people being upset when Milledge was traded for 2 starters (Church and that catcher who did all the car commercials).

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 4:56 pm 
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Looking at Didi's numbers, it looks like he changed his approach with the Yankees.

With the D'backs he averaged 8.3 walks and 16.6 Is per 100 PAs

With the Yanks, 4.4 and 13.6

That suggests more swinging, less taking pitches and in his case it helped. His batting average and power went up which more than makes up for the walk rate going down. Sometimes a change in approach is all a guy needs.

Justin Turner credits his breakout to a change in approach as well, which he learned from Marlon Byrd (insert steroid joke here).

on Castro - he's a tough comp. in 2010 he looked like a god. If he'd stayed in the minors a little longer he'd have been a top 5 prospect, maybe top 1 overall. .376 .421 .569 .990 numbers in AA. If we had 2010 Castro we'd be drooling over him.

I don't know what Gimenez will be - nobody does. I just don't like the Tejada comps for upside. - downside - fine (Tejada also carries a stigma as he's not remembered that fondly), so I think we should stop using him for Comps entirely. It's too easy but it never sounds like a nice thing to say about a player.

I'd sign up for a Castro like career for GImenez - that wouldn't be bad. I don't think I'd sign up for Tejada with 5-7 homers. And I'm still holding out hope for Daniel Murphy numbers (pre-breakout) with a SS's glove. That's my ideal for Gimenez. That's where I'd put his ceiling. 10 homers a year maybe not as many doubles as Murphy, maybe a few more walks and a nice glove. That's what I want for Christmas (in 2020 or whenever he makes his debut).

My feelings can change, of-course. I want to see how he looks this year, a year older. I'd like to see him hit close to 300 with some pop in St. Lucie (or hit like 320 if he repeats Columbia) and I reserve the right to change my opinion, but that's where I'm at now. A 105-110 OPS+ bat and a SS's glove. 20-25 war career. That's my upside, though granted, I've never seem him play and a bazillion things can change. I'd like the Tejada comps to go away now please, and I know some writers are using it - I still say it's lazy writing.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:00 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
I just don't like the Tejada comps for upside. - downside - fine .


C'mon now.


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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:12 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
I just don't like the Tejada comps for upside. - downside - fine .


C'mon now.


I was half kidding. Obviously the downside of any player is never seeing majors, or a cool negative war/ugly numbers when they do see majors.

What I meant was - a Tejada outcome, even Tejada upside outcome, I'd be disappointed.

But if we want to push this comp to silly levels, I suppose Tejada's 2 war per season over a 14 year career = 28 war and that's OK I guess.

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 Post subject: Re: Your 2018 Mets top 50 prospects
PostPosted: Wed Feb 07, 2018 5:25 pm 
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Timely... Longenhagen on Gimenez and why he didn't make the list

"Arias and Gimenez were left off this year’s list because there’s some doubt about the upside, but they’re both pretty stable prospects who’ll probably make the list as they climb the minor-league ladder."

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