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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:15 am 
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thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.

You mean like a real ST competition? I don't see that happening. The only possibility of Smith going north would be if AGone were to get hurt in ST. Otherwise, you'd have to believe that the plan to have AGone in NY and Smith in Vegas is 99% locked.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:23 am 
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thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


Thing is, the farm looks pretty bare, but there are still four young players on the big league roster who I think still have a chance to be above average position players: Conforto, Nimmo, Rosario, and Smith. The Mets need some of those to work out. If you're lucky, you could still end up with enough of a young core there to field a strong team. The catching tandem has a chance to be decent as well.

But I think the Mets really have a lot riding on that group of young players. The pipeline after that is thin, and they aren't going to spend enough to build a strong roster on mostly market rate talent.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 11:41 am 
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thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


I think thats one of the issues with Smith, no?

If you just mean upside over last year/the low bar that Gonzalez is likely to set, sure. But its really hard to see a big star in Smith even if everything breaks right given the bar for offense at 1st. Without big power/patience skills (and everything we think we know about Smith says those are unlikely to be huge pluses for him), the upside becomes something like Mitch Moreland with a better hit tool.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:12 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


I think thats one of the issues with Smith, no?

If you just mean upside over last year/the low bar that Gonzalez is likely to set, sure. But its really hard to see a big star in Smith even if everything breaks right given the bar for offense at 1st. Without big power/patience skills (and everything we think we know about Smith says those are unlikely to be huge pluses for him), the upside becomes something like Mitch Moreland with a better hit tool.


As a 21 year old(youth on his side) he put the ball over the wall 25 times last year between AAA/MLB, and had an 8% walk rate. Plus he has hit 300 at AAA/AA/A+- there is certainly upside. If he hits 280 with 25 homers and a 10% walk rate with an improvement in D due to his weight loss-there is certainly a good chance for a 3 war 1b-that would make him top 10.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:31 pm 
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johnnymets176 wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


I think thats one of the issues with Smith, no?

If you just mean upside over last year/the low bar that Gonzalez is likely to set, sure. But its really hard to see a big star in Smith even if everything breaks right given the bar for offense at 1st. Without big power/patience skills (and everything we think we know about Smith says those are unlikely to be huge pluses for him), the upside becomes something like Mitch Moreland with a better hit tool.


As a 21 year old(youth on his side) he put the ball over the wall 25 times last year between AAA/MLB, and had an 8% walk rate. Plus he has hit 300 at AAA/AA/A+- there is certainly upside. If he hits 280 with 25 homers and a 10% walk rate with an improvement in D due to his weight loss-there is certainly a good chance for a 3 war 1b-that would make him top 10.


Thats a lot of "ifs". And the 25 homers came with a combined .190 or so ISO. Thats firmly in the Mitch Moreland pool.

And that's putting a lot of credence into Vegas production, which I won't immediately dismiss given it carried over somewhat, but color me skeptical.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 12:53 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
johnnymets176 wrote:

As a 21 year old(youth on his side) he put the ball over the wall 25 times last year between AAA/MLB, and had an 8% walk rate. Plus he has hit 300 at AAA/AA/A+- there is certainly upside. If he hits 280 with 25 homers and a 10% walk rate with an improvement in D due to his weight loss-there is certainly a good chance for a 3 war 1b-that would make him top 10.


Thats a lot of "ifs". And the 25 homers came with a combined .190 or so ISO. Thats firmly in the Mitch Moreland pool.

And that's putting a lot of credence into Vegas production, which I won't immediately dismiss given it carried over somewhat, but color me skeptical.


I'm with Johnny on this one. Not that he's a sure thing, but there are reasons to like him with the power, hit for average, walk rate, youth. There's some upside there. He's probably more likely to step up than anyone we have for 2nd base next year (Wilmer, TJ, Cheech, Guillorme).

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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 1:03 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


I think thats one of the issues with Smith, no?

If you just mean upside over last year/the low bar that Gonzalez is likely to set, sure. But its really hard to see a big star in Smith even if everything breaks right given the bar for offense at 1st. Without big power/patience skills (and everything we think we know about Smith says those are unlikely to be huge pluses for him), the upside becomes something like Mitch Moreland with a better hit tool.


The worst part is that this was a predictable midrange outcome at the time he was drafted, just as it was with Cecchini.

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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 4:53 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
thebull wrote:
Good to see with Dom. Hopefully he hits so well this spring that there's no choice but to make him the starting 1B. At least there's some upside with him.


I think thats one of the issues with Smith, no?

If you just mean upside over last year/the low bar that Gonzalez is likely to set, sure. But its really hard to see a big star in Smith even if everything breaks right given the bar for offense at 1st. Without big power/patience skills (and everything we think we know about Smith says those are unlikely to be huge pluses for him), the upside becomes something like Mitch Moreland with a better hit tool.


I mostly meant the upside he can provide over Gonzalez's likely outcome. Best case for Gonzalez is probably 2016 production, which was still quite poor as he was worth 1.2 wins over a full season.

At least with Dom there's the potential for a 3-win player there. He's showed more power as he's progressed and he's also taken time to adjust at each level. I'd be genuinely excited for his future if he hits so well in spring that they have to make him the starting 1B. Can't say I'd be at all excited about A-Gone.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 5:07 pm 
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Really thought Lucroy would have been a nice gamble pre-Gonzalez signing

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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Thu Feb 08, 2018 6:27 pm 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Really thought Lucroy would have been a nice gamble pre-Gonzalez signing


I would have signed Elmer Fudd before Gonzalez...

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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 11:51 am 
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File under Fluff, Spring Training 2018

"Juan Lagares busts out new and improved swing for spring"

https://nypost.com/2018/02/06/juan-laga ... %20buttons

If there is truly any ST Fluff I'd like to see come to life, this is it.


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 Post subject: Re: The Official 2018 Spring Training Thread
PostPosted: Sat Feb 10, 2018 3:25 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
File under Fluff, Spring Training 2018

"Juan Lagares busts out new and improved swing for spring"

https://nypost.com/2018/02/06/juan-laga ... %20buttons

If there is truly any ST Fluff I'd like to see come to life, this is it.


Not that I have any real expectations for Lagares' bat, but I'm a lot less skeptical of "new and improved" swings than I was five years ago.

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