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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:46 pm 
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thebull wrote:
He's clearly the better player just based on 2017? I don't know about that. And why is Frazier a 2 win player? He's been 2.5 or better every single season of his career. And he's the same age as Cozart.

Frazier WAR by year: 2.6, 3.1, 4.8, 4.5, 2.5, 3.0
Cozart WAR by year: 2.3, 1.8, 1.2, 1.4, 2.5, 5.0

Why do you think anything that happened in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014 or even 2015 would have any more than minimal impact as to what either player is likely to accomplish in 2018?

The projection systems have Frazier at 2.1 war next year. I think it's reasonable to forecast 2.5 but I hope that ends up being low.

The same forecast has Cozart at 3 iirc, and it's not higher bc they don't know how much to weight his 2017. I think it deserves more attention/weight because his batted ball profile has definitely gone thru a metamorphosis and that makes it more likely to accept that he's reached a new level.

But in the end, projections are all just 'educated' guesses.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:52 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
thebull wrote:
Now Cozart is twice as good as Frazier? Based off of one season? Last 3 years, Frazier has 10 WAR to Cozart's 9. Cozart has had one monster year with his 5 WAR last season but that's all.

Frazier played 50% more games in those 3 years. And isn't last year a lot more indicative of next year's likely outcome than last 3 yrs?

And any analysis that goes back to 2015 favors Frazier. However, he had a big 1st half that year. From the ASB in 2015 thru the end of the 2017 season (377 games), Frazier has been 220/312/436 and 100 RC+.

In any case, to be fair, the past 3 seasons on a 162 game basis it compares thusly:
Frazier: 233/317/466, 110 RC+, 35HRs, 29 2B, 233ISO, 247 babip, 9%BB, 22%K (462 games)
Cozart: 271/340/480, 114RC+, 27HRs, 34 2B, 209 ISO, 286 babip, 9%BB, 15.5%K (296games)


Thats some pretty aggressive extrapolating for Cozart. Guy has a career high in HRS of 24, and no other season over 16.

Point I'm going for is that recent performance should be weighted more than career. And if Cozart stays on the field, this won't even be close.

People seem to have certain name attachments like this one. Heck, ACab looks like a better 3B option to me. But Alderson gravitates toward the same type of hitter, given lots of choices. It's amusing but he is so predictable.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 12:59 pm 
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Name attachments? I just showed you Frazier's WAR year by year for the last 6 seasons. He's a very good, and dare I say underrated, player.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:13 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
And if Cozart stays on the field, this won't even be close.

\

2016 (not even a great year for Frazier), Cozart stayed on the field, and it was 100% close. In fact, they were equivalent.

This analysis basically says "IF Cozart is the player he was in 2017, which was a significantly better player than he ever was before, and maintains his significant defensive value despite shifting to a different position that has a higher offensive burden on it, and stays healthy PLUS Todd Frazier's 2017 improvements are a fluke, but the downward trends stick...Cozart will definitely be better."


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:20 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
And if Cozart stays on the field, this won't even be close.

\

2016 (not even a great year for Frazier), Cozart stayed on the field, and it was 100% close. In fact, they were equivalent.

This analysis basically says "IF Cozart is the player he was in 2017, which was a significantly better player than he ever was before, and maintains his significant defensive value despite shifting to a different position that has a higher offensive burden on it, and stays healthy PLUS Todd Frazier's 2017 improvements are a fluke, but the downward trends stick...Cozart will definitely be better."

Cozart was literally twice as valuable as Frazier this season on a rate basis. If you look at their last 300 games, it's not particularly close. So, yeah guilty as charged for putting most of the weight in this analysis in their most recent performance.

I'll add that again, if one wants to go back before the most recent seasons, that will change the numbers, but what's the point in doing so if it isn't predictive of much?


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:31 pm 
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The signing is boring, predictable, and good all because of the same reason. The contract. Any more than 2/17 is a miss


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:33 pm 
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Also i'll say it until i'm blue in the face. Frazier in the ALDS and ALCS showed poor range. He dove for a number of balls that were within reach and he couldn't get to. And when he did, the ball either fell out of his glove or by the time he got up he lost the play. So just watch it during the season to see if it was an abnormality or not.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:37 pm 
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Maybe this is all part of Alderson's real goal: convince Votto to request a trade to the Mets.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 1:45 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
Maybe this is all part of Alderson's real goal: convince Votto to request a trade to the Mets.


And hopefully not create the 2014 version of the Reds


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 2:42 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
And if Cozart stays on the field, this won't even be close.

\

2016 (not even a great year for Frazier), Cozart stayed on the field, and it was 100% close. In fact, they were equivalent.

This analysis basically says "IF Cozart is the player he was in 2017, which was a significantly better player than he ever was before, and maintains his significant defensive value despite shifting to a different position that has a higher offensive burden on it, and stays healthy PLUS Todd Frazier's 2017 improvements are a fluke, but the downward trends stick...Cozart will definitely be better."

Cozart was literally twice as valuable as Frazier this season on a rate basis. If you look at their last 300 games, it's not particularly close. So, yeah guilty as charged for putting most of the weight in this analysis in their most recent performance.

I'll add that again, if one wants to go back before the most recent seasons, that will change the numbers, but what's the point in doing so if it isn't predictive of much?


If you look at the last 300 games, the only reason Cozart would be ahead would be because of 2017. It's not like his 2016 was great too. He was a below average hitter that season.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 3:28 pm 
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Signing Cozart as a hitter is like signing Kevin Elster off his 30 home run season.


8)

_________________
Whatever.

8)


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 Post subject: Re: Mets sign the Toddfather
PostPosted: Tue Feb 06, 2018 4:23 pm 
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R Nitelight wrote:
Signing Cozart as a hitter is like signing Kevin Elster off his 30 home run season.


8)

Elster never hit 30 HRs. He hit 24 one year with an 89 RC+ and 1.5war so not much of a comparison to Cozart's 5 war season.


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