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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:19 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
My issue would be Szapycki so far ahead of Kay...seems inconsistent.

Dunn is definitely low, but not a horrible list.

And if you a performance over pedigree guy, how is Gimenez number one...?


Because he's performed at an advanced level for a young age.

The question on Gimenez is 100% on his long term upside as the tools are supposedly (I have no idea firsthand) not "special".


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 5:42 pm 
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jdawginsc wrote:
My issue would be Szapycki so far ahead of Kay...seems inconsistent.

Dunn is definitely low, but not a horrible list.

And if you a performance over pedigree guy, how is Gimenez number one...?


Gimenez is #1 on a lot of lists. He and Peterson are the consensus top 2 and Peterson basically didn't pitch for the mets (3.2 innings, but 6 Ks for anyone who thinks that matters). If Peterson had pitched regular innings he'd probably be the consensus #1.

on Dunn - I agree. He's been disappointing but he's still at least got back end starter upside with a shot at good relief pitcher if starter doesn't work out. Dunn should be above guys like Bashlor/Bautista based on upside I think. Probably above Molina and Flexen too. I get dropping him, but not all the way down to 20.

Szapucki's a tough guy to rank. If he'd not gotten hurt and kept pitching to his numbers pre-injury, he'd have a case for #1. Kay on the other hand, some people say he looks good in spring training, but that's all we've got. I'm fine with his ranking of those 2.

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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:17 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
My issue would be Szapycki so far ahead of Kay...seems inconsistent.

Dunn is definitely low, but not a horrible list.

And if you a performance over pedigree guy, how is Gimenez number one...?


Gimenez is #1 on a lot of lists. He and Peterson are the consensus top 2 and Peterson basically didn't pitch for the mets (3.2 innings, but 6 Ks for anyone who thinks that matters). If Peterson had pitched regular innings he'd probably be the consensus #1.

on Dunn - I agree. He's been disappointing but he's still at least got back end starter upside with a shot at good relief pitcher if starter doesn't work out. Dunn should be above guys like Bashlor/Bautista based on upside I think. Probably above Molina and Flexen too. I get dropping him, but not all the way down to 20.

Szapucki's a tough guy to rank. If he'd not gotten hurt and kept pitching to his numbers pre-injury, he'd have a case for #1. Kay on the other hand, some people say he looks good in spring training, but that's all we've got. I'm fine with his ranking of those 2.


I disagree that Dunn should be ranked ahead of Bashlor and Bautista. If Dunn was drafted in the 6th round this wouldn't even be a discussion. But the fact of the matter is having back end starter potential isn't all that special. Dunn has looked horrible and Bashlor (even though he's going to be a reliever) has looked dominant. As for Bautista I can't fault someone ranking a guy that throws 100 MPH ahead of a guy who got lit up last year. As for Kay, if the guy had thrown 95+ before the injury I would say he should be ranked higher. But you have a guy that sits 92 having TJ surgery and that's worrisome.


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:40 pm 
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I've worked with a couple of the prospect list guys that have been quoted on this site.

You guys know more about the Mets minor Leaguers than they do :)


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:44 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
I've worked with a couple of the prospect list guys that have been quoted on this site.

You guys know more about the Mets minor Leaguers than they do :)


How could we not? Most of them don't really see the players in question play and glance at season stat lines and whatever pops up on milb.com. This isn't to say they don't know anything, but their information isn't exactly granular.

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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 7:46 pm 
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Metsfan980 wrote:
I've worked with a couple of the prospect list guys that have been quoted on this site.

You guys know more about the Mets minor Leaguers than they do :)


LOL. I will say this I have noticed a lot a "experts" say they haven't seen the prospects live yet or they have only seen a few at bats. Most of the experts go by what scouts are telling them which is a red flag right there. If I'm a scout for the Mets I'm going to want to talk my guys up and conversly I'm going to want to talk a rivals prospects down. The scouting reports for top prospects seems to be mostly accurate but what I've noticed is that prospects ranked past 20 on a teams prospect list seem to have scouting reports that are vastly different. One writer has the player topping out at 96 MPH, the other has him topping out at 94 MPH and the other has him topping out at 92 MPH.


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 9:16 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
My issue would be Szapycki so far ahead of Kay...seems inconsistent.

Dunn is definitely low, but not a horrible list.

And if you a performance over pedigree guy, how is Gimenez number one...?


Because he's performed at an advanced level for a young age.

The question on Gimenez is 100% on his long term upside as the tools are supposedly (I have no idea firsthand) not "special".


To be clear, both guys, Kay and Szapucki, are in my personal top ten, MJ. Just seems an odd set of competing philosophies...and I like that three lefties are in the top ten...I think all three have number 3s or better written on them.

I'm not bullish on Gimenez...I see Tejada.

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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:00 pm 
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northway wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
I've worked with a couple of the prospect list guys that have been quoted on this site.

You guys know more about the Mets minor Leaguers than they do :)


How could we not? Most of them don't really see the players in question play and glance at season stat lines and whatever pops up on milb.com. This isn't to say they don't know anything, but their information isn't exactly granular.


You know how they work :)

It makes a lot of sense that their lists are usually very similar or occasionally seem completely made up.


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:03 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
Metsfan980 wrote:
I've worked with a couple of the prospect list guys that have been quoted on this site.

You guys know more about the Mets minor Leaguers than they do :)


LOL. I will say this I have noticed a lot a "experts" say they haven't seen the prospects live yet or they have only seen a few at bats. Most of the experts go by what scouts are telling them which is a red flag right there. If I'm a scout for the Mets I'm going to want to talk my guys up and conversly I'm going to want to talk a rivals prospects down. The scouting reports for top prospects seems to be mostly accurate but what I've noticed is that prospects ranked past 20 on a teams prospect list seem to have scouting reports that are vastly different. One writer has the player topping out at 96 MPH, the other has him topping out at 94 MPH and the other has him topping out at 92 MPH.


Well, I'm glad that they are admitting that. It's hard to know so much about so many organizations, but some of these guys make it seem like they really know what they're saying. I think some of them put less work into these lists than posters on this board would put into their own list.

Baseball America is pretty legitimate though. I know for a fact that they have their own scouts.


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Thu Feb 15, 2018 10:29 pm 
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piazzafan wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
jdawginsc wrote:
My issue would be Szapycki so far ahead of Kay...seems inconsistent.

Dunn is definitely low, but not a horrible list.

And if you a performance over pedigree guy, how is Gimenez number one...?


Gimenez is #1 on a lot of lists. He and Peterson are the consensus top 2 and Peterson basically didn't pitch for the mets (3.2 innings, but 6 Ks for anyone who thinks that matters). If Peterson had pitched regular innings he'd probably be the consensus #1.

on Dunn - I agree. He's been disappointing but he's still at least got back end starter upside with a shot at good relief pitcher if starter doesn't work out. Dunn should be above guys like Bashlor/Bautista based on upside I think. Probably above Molina and Flexen too. I get dropping him, but not all the way down to 20.

Szapucki's a tough guy to rank. If he'd not gotten hurt and kept pitching to his numbers pre-injury, he'd have a case for #1. Kay on the other hand, some people say he looks good in spring training, but that's all we've got. I'm fine with his ranking of those 2.


I disagree that Dunn should be ranked ahead of Bashlor and Bautista. If Dunn was drafted in the 6th round this wouldn't even be a discussion. But the fact of the matter is having back end starter potential isn't all that special. Dunn has looked horrible and Bashlor (even though he's going to be a reliever) has looked dominant. As for Bautista I can't fault someone ranking a guy that throws 100 MPH ahead of a guy who got lit up last year. As for Kay, if the guy had thrown 95+ before the injury I would say he should be ranked higher. But you have a guy that sits 92 having TJ surgery and that's worrisome.



On the Pro-Dunn argument, he's just had one full season so far and the mets gave him an aggressive assignment going straight to St. Lucie. If he was drafted in the 6th round he'd have opened in Columbia. If you compare the pitchers numbers, who got mid year promotions Columbia to St. Lucie, St. Lucie hurts their numbers. Dunn would have had better numbers in Columbia and people might like him more as a result.

I think the potential plus bullpen with a shot at potential useful starter upside puts him ahead of any of the relief pitchers we have.

https://www.amazinavenue.com/2016/12/5/ ... -dunn-2017

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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 12:56 am 
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To play devil's advocate on Dunn, St. Lucie is an extreme pitchers park. Even with an aggressive promotion I don't think his numbers should have been that bad. But I could be a little biased because I saw him pitch in Brooklyn in 2016. The one game I saw him in he was struggling to throw strikes and it looked like there was a lot of effort in his delivery. His numbers were good in Brooklyn so I probably caught him on a bad night but the delivery worried me....but then again I'm no scout.


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 Post subject: Re: Sickels with the oddest Mets top 20 I've seen
PostPosted: Fri Feb 16, 2018 5:11 am 
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piazzafan wrote:
To play devil's advocate on Dunn, St. Lucie is an extreme pitchers park. Even with an aggressive promotion I don't think his numbers should have been that bad. But I could be a little biased because I saw him pitch in Brooklyn in 2016. The one game I saw him in he was struggling to throw strikes and it looked like there was a lot of effort in his delivery. His numbers were good in Brooklyn so I probably caught him on a bad night but the delivery worried me....but then again I'm no scout.


St. Lucie isn't an "extreme" pitcher's park and it's not just the park but the hitters in A+ are more advanced than A. I tend to overlook a poor season, especially for a recently drafted player. That said, you've seen him and I haven't, so I'll give you credit there.

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