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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 8:32 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
As to Evans possible getting that last roster spot, it would require opening another 40 spot, but that could happen organically if Monty doesn't make the initial roster.


Would have to be an injury, no? Or are you thinking Rosario starts on DL?

Otherwise there's really no position player competition. Nimmo/Lagares (whoever doesn't start), Flores, Reyes and Plaw/TdA (whoever doesn't start) is the bench.

I got:

OF: Yo, Lagares, Nimmo, Bruce (4)
IF: Fraz, Rosario, ACab, AGone, Reyes, Flo (6)
C: TDA, KP (2)

And if they go with a staff of 12, that's 24 with Scooter, TJR, Wright on the DL. Smith, Cheech & Guillorme in AAA. Evans and Monty(?) on the bubble for the 25th spot?

So presumably an 8th pen arm saves Monty. Or if they add a lefty, it could be for Robles..?

And Gsell in AAA with the last rotation spot between Matz and Wheeler (the loser goes to AAA). Lugo in the pen.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:06 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
As to Evans possible getting that last roster spot, it would require opening another 40 spot, but that could happen organically if Monty doesn't make the initial roster.


Would have to be an injury, no? Or are you thinking Rosario starts on DL?

Otherwise there's really no position player competition. Nimmo/Lagares (whoever doesn't start), Flores, Reyes and Plaw/TdA (whoever doesn't start) is the bench.

I got:

OF: Yo, Lagares, Nimmo, Bruce (4)
IF: Fraz, Rosario, ACab, AGone, Reyes, Flo (6)
C: TDA, KP (2)

And if they go with a staff of 12, that's 24 with Scooter, TJR, Wright on the DL. Smith, Cheech & Guillorme in AAA. Evans and Monty(?) on the bubble for the 25th spot?

So presumably an 8th pen arm saves Monty. Or if they add a lefty, it could be for Robles..?

And Gsell in AAA with the last rotation spot between Matz and Wheeler (the loser goes to AAA). Lugo in the pen.


They'd almost definitely keep Montero and option Lugo.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:22 pm 
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Blue Chipper

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HeyNowHK wrote:
As to Evans possible getting that last roster spot, it would require opening another 40 spot, but that could happen organically if Monty doesn't make the initial roster.

I think Montero is basically a lock for the roster and we'll just be one-short on the bench. And we'll be short an OF, not an IF. There's probably a 99.9% chance that Evans, Cecchini, and Guillorme are all in AAA to start the season, although it's good to see them really competing.

But there's effectively an open 40-man spot right now since DW hasn't been moved to the 60-day yet.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Tue Mar 06, 2018 11:38 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Finally Roseboom might get into a game!

And nice that Nimmo is getting some real run here. Hopefully he continues to turn heads the rest of the way.


Yeah, they really should be using these older LOOGy types as the "extra" arms right now and hope to find something. Even if not for OD, what if Blevins goes down, which seems assured to happen at some point given the dependence that will be put on him?

Roseboom was awful last spring, but who knows. But between he, Regnault, Griset..

Do I have confidence in any of these guys? Absolutely not. But if the approach is "we can just find a LOOGy internally", I don't know why you'd limit it to just 2 of these types versus all available options. There's nothing that says Purke or Conlon is any better of a bet than these guys. None of them have anything approaching "plus stuff" so its just about deception and arm angles.

Based on how much they're playing, I'd say that the org definitely sees more in Conlon than the Roseboom-Regnault-Griset group. And while Conlon may be a high-80s guy, too, he's always had plus command, which is a definite advantage over those other guys.

I'm pretty sure Purke is the second lefty, though. He'll probably take David's 40-man spot although I do genuinely believe we'll break camp with only one lefty.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:15 am 
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thebull wrote:

They'd almost definitely keep Montero and option Lugo.


I don't think so.....at least in a sane world.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 9:28 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
Finally Roseboom might get into a game!

And nice that Nimmo is getting some real run here. Hopefully he continues to turn heads the rest of the way.


Yeah, they really should be using these older LOOGy types as the "extra" arms right now and hope to find something. Even if not for OD, what if Blevins goes down, which seems assured to happen at some point given the dependence that will be put on him?

Roseboom was awful last spring, but who knows. But between he, Regnault, Griset..

Do I have confidence in any of these guys? Absolutely not. But if the approach is "we can just find a LOOGy internally", I don't know why you'd limit it to just 2 of these types versus all available options. There's nothing that says Purke or Conlon is any better of a bet than these guys. None of them have anything approaching "plus stuff" so its just about deception and arm angles.

Based on how much they're playing, I'd say that the org definitely sees more in Conlon than the Roseboom-Regnault-Griset group. And while Conlon may be a high-80s guy, too, he's always had plus command, which is a definite advantage over those other guys.

I'm pretty sure Purke is the second lefty, though. He'll probably take David's 40-man spot although I do genuinely believe we'll break camp with only one lefty.


I've seen Conlon at least two, possibly three times and he looks like he could be serviceable. He does have decent command and pounds the lower strike zone. I've seen Purke pitch once and he is a groundball machine. I would have liked Regnault to be given an audition but frankly, I believe either Conlon or Purke from the left side would be better than Robles at any side.... PJ Conlon may top out at 86 but his abiliity to "pitch" rather than "throw" (Robles) may get more production, especially since the team really needs to have a second lefty in the pen.

As to Matz, in the longer run, I believe he will be ok. As to the "now" I would give him one more chance in major league camp. If he fails, it may be best to let him find himself at AA (please, NOT Las Vegas) for a month or so. The stuff is most certainly there. The command isn't there and the results have not been confidence building.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:01 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
And while Conlon may be a high-80s guy, too, he's always had plus command, which is a definite advantage over those other guys.

.


There's nothing "high" about his 80's. Hey, JP Howell looks like the blueprint here and he had a nice run. But Conlon's stuff is way short, even for a situational lefty.



And I'm glad it has no traction here, but I've seen it plenty on twitter so let me be proactive: just say no to the Hansel Robles as loogy nonsense. In a big spot, with a lefty up - you're REALLY throwing Hansel Robles in there because in 2015 he had weirdly dominant numbers versus LHB?

Last year he walked 16 of the 92 lefties he faced. He allowed 4 HRs. Thats not a LOOGy. I don't care if he held them to a low BA (on a .190 BABIP). This is where being blind to a stat sheet completely ignores the reality of what using Hansel Robles as a situational lefty would really look like.

Yeesh.


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:11 am 
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Hot Takes wrote:
HeyNowHK wrote:
As to Evans possible getting that last roster spot, it would require opening another 40 spot, but that could happen organically if Monty doesn't make the initial roster.

I think Montero is basically a lock for the roster and we'll just be one-short on the bench. And we'll be short an OF, not an IF. There's probably a 99.9% chance that Evans, Cecchini, and Guillorme are all in AAA to start the season, although it's good to see them really competing.


With a 5th starter not needed till the 3rd week of the season, it's even more of a reason not to bring an 8th RPer north. So Monty is going to be part of the 7 man pen?? Not that the competition is strong for the last couple of spots, but I don't see any reasonable logic that has Monty making it over Lugo for example.

I just don't see any reasonable scenario with Monty among the top 12 or 13 best arms. I know they will prob rationalize it otherwise, but if they eventually have to remove him from the roster anyway, why not do it now?


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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Wed Mar 07, 2018 11:22 am 
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Conlon is more 84-87 than "high 80's"

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 Post subject: Re: Mets V Astros 3/6/2018 1:07 Eastern
PostPosted: Fri Mar 09, 2018 7:49 am 
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Metro2007 wrote:
Conlon is more 84-87 than "high 80's"


If he gets any slower the ball will be thrown to the 2nd baseman. :D

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