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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:33 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Nimmo making an impression so far.

I think Montero's got to get traded, though I wonder if there are any good comps for him, guys who throw 95, decent stuff but bad numbers, career 1.7 WHIP. Chance he works things out and becomes a #4 starter, but I don't see it happening here.


Rafael Montero's average fastball velocity is 93.0.

A comp for a guy who throws a 93 mph fastball and hasn't found sustained big league success by 27 is literally hundreds of guys who make up all levels of professional baseball. A very small portion of those guys go on to find later career success.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:38 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Nimmo making an impression so far.

I think Montero's got to get traded, though I wonder if there are any good comps for him, guys who throw 95, decent stuff but bad numbers, career 1.7 WHIP. Chance he works things out and becomes a #4 starter, but I don't see it happening here.


Rafael Montero's average fastball velocity is 93.0.

A comp for a guy who throws a 93 mph fastball and hasn't found sustained big league success by 27 is literally hundreds of guys who make up all levels of professional baseball. A very small portion of those guys go on to find later career success.

And even if he finds that success somewhere else eventually, the Mets behave as if that would cripple them. Move on already, Sandy.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:40 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
Nimmo with a great game. Syndergaard with a really nice game. David Thompson on base 3 times. Bautista with a bump in the road.

Nimmo needs to play and bat leadoff for this team.

Haven't seen much of him, but it appears that Thompson is beginning to impress.

And yeah, Nimmo...


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:41 pm 
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HeyNowHK wrote:
MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Nimmo making an impression so far.

I think Montero's got to get traded, though I wonder if there are any good comps for him, guys who throw 95, decent stuff but bad numbers, career 1.7 WHIP. Chance he works things out and becomes a #4 starter, but I don't see it happening here.


Rafael Montero's average fastball velocity is 93.0.

A comp for a guy who throws a 93 mph fastball and hasn't found sustained big league success by 27 is literally hundreds of guys who make up all levels of professional baseball. A very small portion of those guys go on to find later career success.

And even if he finds that success somewhere else eventually, the Mets behave as if that would cripple them. Move on already, Sandy.


Of course. My point was that the OP appeared to indicate there was some disconnect between Montero's stuff and results. This is not some once in a lifetime talent. He was a big prospect based off good-enough stuff and supposedly plus-plus command. We have enough of a sample now to know thats not true.

The list of guys who have Montero's results through age 27 and go on to find big success I'm going to guess is very small. The fact that he throws a 93 mph avg. fastball doesn't change that.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 6:51 pm 
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dragonfly wrote:
Nimmo with a great game. Syndergaard with a really nice game. David Thompson on base 3 times. Bautista with a bump in the road.

Nimmo needs to play and bat leadoff for this team.

Just to add on to this, if this team is going to take further steps toward contention this season, I think it's going to have to be with some of the kids taking a prominent role - that is to say that beyond the obvious Noah, Scooter, deGrom troika (plus Yo), they are going to need one of more of Nimmo, Plaw, & Rosario (and even Evans &/or Cheech) to emerge from the shadows in a far bigger way than currently projected. And that is really for the sake of any long term sustainability. Rosario is going to obviously be given every chance to succeed but they've got to have other 'young legs' break thru into prominent roles bc the feature players in this lineup almost all have old man skills that could fade quickly - Fraz, ACab, Bruce, Yo, Flo, AGone. You really would like to see some young players with some secondary skills emerge here.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:14 pm 
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Which is why first base should have not been given to Gonzalez. If not Smith, then Wilmer.

I predict Frazier will be a bargain. AsCab will be solid, but not great. Bruce will disappoint.

Yoenis is a wild card.

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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:34 pm 
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Jason Vargas, first 4 seasons:

9-14, 218 innings, 5.43 era, 5.10 FIP, 1.477 WHIP, 5.8 Ks, 3.6 walks per 9, age 22-26

Raffy Montero, first 4 seasons, 6-16, 192.1 innings, 5.38 era, 4.62 FIP, 1.705 WHIP, 8.8 Ks, 5.2 walks per 9, age 23-26.

I know the results aren't there, but 8.8 Ks per 9 is encouraging and a little tough to just throw away, though I think they may have to, cause he's getting harder and harder to carry.

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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 7:51 pm 
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MarkJohnson>You wrote:
LTKfRGM wrote:
Nimmo making an impression so far.

I think Montero's got to get traded, though I wonder if there are any good comps for him, guys who throw 95, decent stuff but bad numbers, career 1.7 WHIP. Chance he works things out and becomes a #4 starter, but I don't see it happening here.


Rafael Montero's average fastball velocity is 93.0.

A comp for a guy who throws a 93 mph fastball and hasn't found sustained big league success by 27 is literally hundreds of guys who make up all levels of professional baseball. A very small portion of those guys go on to find later career success.


He averaged over 94 last year as a starter and has maintained pretty consistent K/9 stats throughout his career. So he's got obvious talent. I'd agree of the chances of him burning us and flipping on a switch elsewhere aren't very high but at the same point there's no need to cut him unless there's an obvious roster crunch. Which there isn't.

Either Gsellman or Lugo has to be in AAA stretched out and waiting for the call. We seem to want an 8-man pen. All signs point towards Montero making the team.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:15 pm 
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The guy is 200 IP into his career and has allowed 5.2 BB/9. He's got a 1.71 WHIP. The chances that he turns into an effective mid rotation arm or even dependable #5 are slim. There's little point in pretending that he's worthy of a spot on this roster. He's done nothing to deserve it.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:48 pm 
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I'm just tired of the Jekyl and Hyde act with Montero. In the minors he's a strike thrower and has confidence...in the majors, he nibbles and doesn't trust his stuff...over 5 walks per 9...it seems like he'll never get it together with his command up in the majors.

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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:49 pm 
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LTKfRGM wrote:
Jason Vargas, first 4 seasons:

9-14, 218 innings, 5.43 era, 5.10 FIP, 1.477 WHIP, 5.8 Ks, 3.6 walks per 9, age 22-26

Raffy Montero, first 4 seasons, 6-16, 192.1 innings, 5.38 era, 4.62 FIP, 1.705 WHIP, 8.8 Ks, 5.2 walks per 9, age 23-26.

I know the results aren't there, but 8.8 Ks per 9 is encouraging and a little tough to just throw away, though I think they may have to, cause he's getting harder and harder to carry.


If Jason Vargas is his ceiling, and his floor is the hundreds of guys who you’ll never find because they stopped getting chances when they had a 1.7 WHIP at age 27, I’ll take my chances.


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 Post subject: Re: 3/8/18 Mets v Nats
PostPosted: Thu Mar 08, 2018 9:50 pm 
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Mogriffjr wrote:
I'm just tired of the Jekyl and Hyde act with Montero. In the minors he's a strike thrower and has confidence...in the majors, he nibbles and doesn't trust his stuff...over 5 walks per 9...it seems like he'll never get it together with his command up in the majors.


It’s not Jekyll and Hyde. There is no Jekyll. He hasn’t posted any sort of big time control/command performance since 2013 at AA.


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